CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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I just have this nagging feeling in the back of my head. But, I can afford to wait until 12z stuff rolls in to add confidence. Just not sold a wide area of 12-18+ like some have.
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DOT does a good job. Roads will be snow covered, but I would not expect 6" ruts on them. Just snow packed. The T will probably have some delays, but should be ok. I would not expect a huge issue in the city on the roads. Good luck with the surgery.
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PF is right, it's going to be like skiing out west by the time St Patty's Day roles in. Deep deep snow.
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It's the mid levels, and that is thanks to the interaction of the nrn and srn stream s/w's. I dunno, I'm definitely not confident in big numbers at this time. I see a few Scooter flags that keep me in check for now. Yeah yeah....I know about banding and some lucky weenies who may get into it, but a wide area of 12-18+?? Not there yet.
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Sounds about right.
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I did. We hope.
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They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.
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It make sense, it's saying this is the least likely scenario.
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https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=12+Mar+2018+-+06Z
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HRRRX went wild. But, that's the limit on that model when going out 24+ hrs.
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The NAM banding signature is off the hizzy.
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These are just things to watch. Nobody needs to jump or only say "Cape storm." We'll see what 12z brings.
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GFS is a little east with the goods too. Edit: similar to 00z to be honest.
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I could see mid level magic well west. My issue is that if the main CCB is over the Cape, and you have a 15-20 mile wide band to the west, someone is going to get lower totals in between. Euro was a crusher, but these subtle shifts E or W will really have an effect.
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Yeah I agree. I'm certainly not comfortable with the super big amounts currently.
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RGEM is rather low and shift east with the main action.
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EPS looks better too.
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But I need to see how the forcing looks through 500. It looked like deeper lift was east.
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-12C at 700 is BOS to Ginxy at 12z Tuesday and then slides east.
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What you want to do is diagnose H7-H5 features and corresponding temps. Recall DGZ is -12 to -18C. Wherever that temp profiles lies need to have lift and RH. Sometimes it’s as low as 700mb, sometimes it’s above 600mb.
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Wild NAM run.
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Yeah you can see that at hr 39. Nice extension NW if that srn stream vorticty.
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I’m sure things will do what they always do. Euro op corrects a bit west and other guidance east. 70/30 compromise.
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They likely did not see it.
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It is verbatim. A little more organized and west. Also good banding potential.
