This is what happens when the clothes start flying off about general 500mb looks in the beginning of November. You need to let the details work themselves out. There is a reason why early April has better snow chances than most of November.
I think it’s guidance handling the trough up there. Some bring in a s/w and beat down the ridging like 00z. Given volatility, I’d still want to stay a little cautious.
The fact weeklies were kind of blah in December gives it some credit. But yeah who knows. It looks like we have some cold to play with end of this month and early December anyways.
First order climate data and not to mention decisions being made on that data such as snowfall. It definitely does matter even with the errors in snow measurement. This isn't just margin of error....it's all out egregious.