CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Like with every storm this season, still not clear cut. I like what the NWS did. Highlights the areas best for siggy impacts.
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00z NAM is definitely colder vs 18z. That's a hell of a push SW from Maine.
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You could draw a line on that dew graphic from the Maine coastline and pivot that down to NH coastline and keep going SW. That’s a good proxy where temps will be either side of 32 for quite a while.
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Steve it looks barely cold enough aloft on the 18z euro where Dave is near hr 60. You’d want the storm more SE I think.
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Well as many said, We don’t know how far SW the push will get.
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I look at 850 and it’s torched
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You are borderline
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Backside sucks in SNE/
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Yeah that’s definitely a pelt fest in areas that were borderline snow.
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Seems like euro is ticking warmer aloft at 12z and now 18z.
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I think we sell.
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The western IO region will persist. Looks like we have a decent January if MJO is right, after first week.
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This also may be a good example of models adjusting as we get closer to the event. Adjust to better or for worse, but as they assimilate with current observations they should have an idea starting tomorrow.
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RPM is sort of weenie here. 2-4” followed by hours of pellets. Temp forecasts are tricky here. Not ideal to CAA off the ocean, but it’s so cold aloft that it might slowly drop temps to near freezing at the surface. Type of deal where it’s like 33 here and 30 on top of blue hill.
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Yeah that is what’s making this complicated. It’s a rare event. Look at 925-850. It actually starts to turn NE and advert cold air in! That’s just something that doesn’t happen. Wicked HP
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Yeah that’s when blocking would be nice.
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Southbury CT points SW?
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I think we’ll have -PNA tendencies for awhile.
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See January pattern thread.
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It’s definitely a gradient look, but there is plenty of money in the bank across Canada.
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EPS is nice after 1/7.
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Don’t hold me to it because if your 32.1 and rain for a large part..I won’t be surprised.
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EPS actually may be a hair colder vs the op.
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For Kevin and CT, the airmass is coming in from the NE. It’s not entrenched. So, it’s possible this isn’t a big deal for a large part of the state. I don’t have enough knowledge to say if Kevin is 31 or 33, but there’s a real possibility only a very small portion of the state sees something siggy for ZR. I do think he’ll be below freezing though for a good chunk.
