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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    Well that failed lol
  2. CoastalWx
    The key is to watch what happens in Ohio and PA, and also in the Delmarva. The models are evaporating the stuff in Ohio and PA, despite decent UL forcing. The stuff in the Delmarva comes in a little too late for many. If the stuff in Ohio and PA remains stronger, or the Delmarva activity is more robust, then maybe some more areas stand a chance of 1-3 stuff.
  3. CoastalWx
    Stein did it.
  4. CoastalWx
    Moisture wasn't really shunted south. It moved east quicker and just dissipated. Not necessarily shunted.
  5. CoastalWx
    Sneaky and cautious.
  6. CoastalWx
    Yeah exactly. Kind of a bummer...I didn't think the moisture issue would be a factor in terms of how quick it leaves. Changed overnight.
  7. CoastalWx
    That's not true. The moisture departing is the bigger issue.
  8. CoastalWx
    Moisture lifts out quick. Seems like convection may be causing some issues.
  9. CoastalWx
    Yeah. They can post all the confused emojis they want, but this week was also identified 10+ days out. If the moisture moves out quickly, that's just an unfortunate circumstance.
  10. CoastalWx
    Need to watch a band of lift that some guidance tries to shoot up after 6z. RPM tries this south of BOS into RI, but other guidance is north. Convection will play havoc with guidance so probably going to be more of a nowcast deal.
  11. CoastalWx
    Just like this week, might be another window at the tail end of the month as we get a trough in the east and some cold in Canada. Clearly it gets more difficult at that time, but that's on guidance.
  12. CoastalWx
    JFC give that mean a phucking edible for God sake.
  13. CoastalWx
    Yeah definitely a quicker exit and not necessarily a shunt south.
  14. CoastalWx
    Ha big difference though with 3K and 12K. Anyways just goes to snow you how tricky it is.
  15. CoastalWx
    We Blink182?
  16. CoastalWx
    I don’t have an issue with BOX map. Too many questions to go aggressive.
  17. CoastalWx
    I feel like I would show a bit more latitude variation than a widespread 2-5" but given the uncertainty, I can't disagree.
  18. CoastalWx
    Jack Mehoff? I know him well.
  19. CoastalWx
    That could happen. I'm open to that. I'm just going by gut and how it looks as depicted.
  20. CoastalWx
    I like the Euro and NAM depiction. I think the mid levels argue for north of the pike IMO. I also think the maps south of the pike are going to be more overdone vs north of the pike. 2-4" more like 1 to maybe 2". Maybe you cut off 25% near NH border? I think you have cooler mid levels and potentially better SG, so the 10:1 maps there aren't as egregious.
  21. CoastalWx
    So am I to guess this includes your backyard?
  22. CoastalWx
    Might be when it starts to weaken as it becomes more CAA at 700 vs getting the good convergence east of the low with some WAA and strong fronto like at 6z. Anyways, that's not always the end game (see 3/4/19 haha), but something to watch. Every model places it a little different.
  23. CoastalWx
    Of course that is assuming GFS is right.
  24. CoastalWx
    Given that and where the DGZ is, that is congrats nrn MA and SNH IMO.
  25. CoastalWx
    Put up 700 for the people at home.
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