CoastalWx

Loop this. It's the Canadian, but see how the s/w at hr 204 in the Gulf goes poof. In this case the PV in Canada and lack of a decent ridge out west (for now on this model) just can't allow for things to buckle and take off. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2021011212&fh=120

I don't know if that helps to understand, Ray.

Sometimes it is hard to quantify. Things aren't linear. IOW, maybe one slight thing is off and the whole thing just can't get together in time, or blows up way offshore. You just remove that one feature making it hard on s/w's to amplify and boom..it would come up the coast. It's almost the opposite of 2015. We had everything perfectly in place to go well for us. Move something or change a feature ever so slightly and our snowfall could have been cut in half.

Also, no baroclinicity. That is the fuel. No real fuel, no s/w energy.

I think more in my post above. Just need the flow to buckle, and we have not had that. The flow in Canada has remained progressive in a way and the height field cannot buckle.

We have not had a lot of meridional flow. You'll have something briefly favorable, and then a ridge buckles and breaks off into the west and you're left with a weak + tilted trough from NM to WV. That should change.

We have had a lot of Pacific flow. Fast flow that doesn't really allow any S/W to amp up and buckle. I thought the 18th took a step in a good direction.

GFS trying for 1/18-1/19?

Rain/Snow line.

Oh right. Ha. That ice and then the Christmas morning blitz that year.

It can be hit or miss here. Honestly if he could, up in far NE Essex country is sneaky good for snow and severe. I personally think Newburyport is an awesome town. It is pricey, but it has a cool vibe and for being near the water...their latitude does help keep any CF very close to the beaches or even just offshore. I think my wife and I would have lived there if it wasn't for our roots closer to the S Shore.

That was a sneaky screw job from about Duxbury to SE RI. My parents live in Marshfield near the Pembroke/Norwell line. They near 2' OTG at one point with barely any in downtown Plymouth. That's incredible.

Nothing came close to that after. Sure I have my share of disappointments, but nothing like that. I will say, Feb '06 comes close. That made me hate the dryslot. I saw NYC getting crushed with 28" and was like WTF!! I had no idea, that was supposed to be here. Since then, that made me always seek out the slot.

To this day I get triggered posting about it.

March '01 wasn't so bad as we had a decent ending. Dec 1992 was brutal...brutal...brutal. Especially as a small weenie when you were incessantly bombarded by your parents about how we don't get snow like we used to, bliz of '78..etc. I was about to get the big one. Blizzard warnings and 12-18"+ from all the outlets. I remember distinctly my mom saying this may be the biggest storm you've seen. Only to see it change back to rain, knowing it was pounding 5 miles away. I still have PTSD from that, and I know it's coming. It took days for me to shake off how pissed and upset I was. I thought I would never get to see the big one.

Yeah, prepping for heavy heavy tears at some point.

I was thinking back to '18-'19. Even though for here it was near normal in snowfall, every storm virtually over-achieved here. From the pre Thanksgiving storm, to the big March bomb...most did better than my initial thoughts for my area. Don't forget the ice on 12/23 and then the big snow to ice event just prior to MLK. That was sneaky ice well into SE MA.

Dryslot shook. On the other hand, we've had some great luck in recent times.

I could see early Feb or very late Jan having the better chance as things relax a bit. For a larger potential anyways.

That's a nice video your wife put together. Excuse me for stalking..haha.

Pope is back and finally dug out from all that snow.

We said after 1/15 is the best chance, like 2 weeks ago. That still is the case. Yeah it may be quiet next week, but can't see that two weeks out. The big picture is there, just need to have the details, which obviously we cannot see this far out.

Man EPS is pretty weenie looking after this week weekend.

I mean last week for awhile we were like 34-35 for the high and 31 for the low I think for 2 or 3 days.

The perception is the lack of cutters torching it and giving you those +20 days. Bud it’s just been steady AN with the lows seemingly driving it. But even here, upper 30s to near 40 during the day and lows in the 20s will give AN readings for sure during peak cold Climo.