The other thing that makes me hopeful for the first half of Feb, is the tendency for models to break down the warming at 50mb. I'm comparing EPS forecasts and they overall are showing the tendency for this warm node to be broken down too quickly. IOW, I would think an overall -AO or -NAO regime probably persists a little longer than the weeklies show. The fact that guidance sort of latches on to another -NAO by the Davis Straits might be a sign of that.