It is clear that srn stream of vorticity and the leftover convection is playing a role. But again, if that s/w comes in a bit stronger (and very possible it does as it is sampled better) then it won't matter much.
I will say watch that srn streamer of vorticity. That is what excites a little low with the convection SE of HSE. That is playing a role. But if that main s/w is stronger, it won't matter much.
My son was pissed we missed the snow yesterday. Could not believe it because the GFS showed like 2". I showed him a sounding to show why the GFS was wrong.