CoastalWx

I could too. And then back to palm trees a few days later.

Sausage?

Maybe a shot it develops nicely offshore? Some solutions show that.

As far as next week goes, I’m tossing the sheared stuff. Don’t buy it. Maybe something closer to GFS? Edit, they aren’t sheared.....just don’t necessarily the far offshore solutions.

The GEFS are not as bad so we’ll hope for that.

Meh. 50-60 in spots.

Well just having a little Saturday morning fun, but it was kind of ugly. Hopefully that changes a bit. The problem is not the pig in Alaska, the problem is the PNA is just too dam negative. Also there is no blocking.

Just looping it and crying while this plays.

Looping the EPS is like those commercials asking to adopt or donate to abused puppies. That Sarah McLachlan song playing in the background as they look up at the camera with sad faces saying “why did you do this to me?....why do I deserve this?” That’s how I feel. Why did you do this to me?

27 for the low. Can’t even get real cold.

At least Seattle will have a white Christmas.

Yikes what a blood bath on the EPS.

It comes right back though. It’s a brief split or interruption. Ray is referring to something more substantial later in the winter which is possible.

That’s actually really nice inland.

That looks like it handles CAD better than the euro lol. What have they done to it?

Hopefully that was a compliment lol.

Back in the Nina 07-09 days, the GFS was classic in that it would have a low modeled southeast of the benchmark and come back 200 miles NW in 4-5 days. The euro typically did much better with these and ended up closer to correct.

Will explained it well earlier. Couple of things. One being the nrn stream s/w as we know can be underestimated. So that may trend a bit stronger although not always. The other is the southeast ridge. Guidance seems to underestimate that several days out, and then slowly gets modeled a little stronger on guidance. So if you are really unlucky, you have the combo of that to bring this north a bit with each run. Sometimes it's usually like 70/30 a combo. But it's not a myth, and still seems to occur. Now the flow is progressive, so it is possible this remains sort of sheared out.

I just found it did so well in mesoscale events like that.

I think I was one of two fans of that model, but it nailed the pre Christmas ice here (2017?) The Christmas snow in 2017, and then the nasty icing event in January 2019. Will and Ray, this was the storm that started at the GTG in ORH as flurries. It was driving the cold into SE MA when nobody...I mean nobody had it near even 128.

Me taking down OCM forecasts with the Swiss back in the glory days.

Bring back the Swiss model. That thing was going Commando on the other models in CAD. Arnold Schwarzenegger on model temps with rocket propelled grenades and AR-15s to the GFS back in 2017-2019.

LOL, I'd have to see what the upgrade tweaked. But if that is messed up, boy is that bad.

It never used to do that though. At least IMO. I hope this isn't an issue.