CoastalWx

Doth be too cold to cut thy trees.

Will be neat to see it play out. Looks like fun down your way regardless.

Yeah maybe a min...but probably still a soaking. Reggie is along S coast too.

Yeah. Wherever that is, will be where it gets crazy.

I probably lean mesos for now with a nod to euro for global. It's still a tropical system that yes is becoming ET, but it's the warm season. Convective blobs can do weird things to models. My 2 pennies....Areas maybe pike to SNH see a prolonged mdt to heavy rain event, but may not get the uber rates. The areas south may get Steined for awhile, but could get 2-4"+ in a couple of hours with spinner risk near low center and on warm front. Tough to say who jacks. I do like the HRRR look on the warm front fwiw.

You do on the GFS. The heaviest rains will be near the WF. That's near the S coast on the GFS.

Not much of a stein if you get 2-3”

I'm not saying no wind, but those look way too aggressive overall.

Looks like the last two HRRR runs. Right on WF.

They are. It won't be 60+.

Like I said 7" or Stein.

18z HRRR...I like that depiction. Notice how it has the heavy rain near the warm front. That's how I envision it, but of course where does the warm front end up? Look at all those cells along the front.

Now we demand north.

Dendrite and Lava in the goods on the EPS. Chickens washed away and canyons for Lava.

Hydro

Yeah I'll sell those values....but almost like a gravity wave thing is strong isallobaric component?

That brief spike in winds on all guidance.

Looks like GFS. Good. Send it to the chickens.

Still more rain to fall in the east after that too.

Nope that isn't. I said if it's going to ruin another day with a pedestrian event..no thanks. Give me 7" or Stein.

LOL...you get the idea.

I'll look forward to srly skies and cirrus this winter while it pounds north of exit 18. It's going to happen.

Certainly the chance on the WF.

They do, but almost look like it's more synoptically driven. I think we need to watch where the WF is. On the GEFS it's offshore. Being just north of WF (I think) is where the heavy heavies are. But maybe we have a secondary area with more favorable synoptics. For instance you can see mid level fronto acting on this by that finger of precip initially extending well NE of the low.

GFS soaks the pike.