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mob1

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  1. That's the AI GFS. Either way, the GEFS definitely improved.
  2. Forget the tight precipitation field for a second - verbatim, this would be awesome.
  3. Starts off a bit sloppy, but extrapolated from here it honestly looks pretty good. For NE, you'd want the vort to close off and capture a hair later as otherwise it could occlude south of you (think Boxing Day).
  4. Huge hit! Has a foot plus for this subforum (and the entire state of NJ).
  5. Most models show some snow (coating to an inch) for this. Would be nice to get a layer of clean snow before the next cold spell this weekend into early next week.
  6. At this point we all at least experienced a solid period of real winter with a decent snowstorm and sustained cold. Would have been nice if a couple of additional snow events panned out? Absolutely! But at this point all I'm looking for is one more solid storm to bookend an acceptable winter.
  7. GFS gives us a couple of inches from this
  8. GFS in the early going doesn't look great
  9. Entire ridge axis is shifted a bit east on the GFS, so even though the trough is further along in the process of going neutral, the overall look isn't great. Flatter ridge out west as well.
  10. 5-7 for the south form out to Montauk. Still honestly close enough to trend towards a few inches for the city but after 0Z tonight if it still looks like this it's likely not happening.
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