Scraff

Dayum! Even Georgetown into the action!

Anyone wanting a fun Super Bowl, this has been a great one. What more could you want!?

At this point, snow tv would be a win. Like the idea of souther though. Not out of the realm I suppose?

That’s street corn dip is a staple in the Scraff house. So damn good.

LOLz. My 19 year old daughter who doesn’t drink snuck that in.

Would he treat Taylor like that!? What an ass. Calm down.

Let’s go Chiefs! Fuck SF!! And now it’s the Super Bowl Fridge Index and it’s at an all time high today. Means nothing for snow apparently though.

Those 2 together easily in ABV probably = 1-120 Min? Is that how math works? I dunno. Pretty good reason I dropped trying to be a meteorologist my freshman year of college. Lol.

The real question. How many 120’s deep are you!?

“Work” never sucks on a Friday. Actually. Every day for me!

Need a fellow skier to travel with? Whistler is at the top of my list of mountains I need to ski. I’m serious. Let me know. Ok…back to beer sales I go.

I got 9.5” in two storms that week. I’m good for this winter Maybe even next winter as well. Fuck it! See everyone in 2026.

Poor little old Georgetown.

So weird how a brain works. I read GFs as short for “girlfriends”. Then you read your post with girlfriends in mind and it’s pretty damn funny. Ok. Back to work I go.

Wait a sec. 20 mins ago—GFS sucks. It’s on its own island. Now I come back in—suddenly we’re all bowing to the almighty King GooFuS.

Let’s hope this is the new trend underway. I’ve had good vibes on this one for some reason. I feel like storms this year haven’t showed their hands until 4-5 days out.

We should shut this thread down and put the GFS out to pasture.

Unless I’m delirious. GFS??

If it cuts anymore, it might end up back in Chicago for god sakes. No longer invested in this one. I want PD3…

Pass. We can do better.

That one deserves a FOLKS!

I need some some F words thrown around this happy hour GooFuS run.

I see it’s finally time to un-shit the blinds!? Wow!! ETA: Maybe this is the appetizer for PDIII.

Cosgrove on board… I almost titled this discussion, "This is your last and best chance for serious cold and snow if you live in the southern and eastern tier of the USA". But for reasons of brevity, I decided against that starting banner. Instead, I look at the 11-15, 16-20, and 21-25 day periods as a chance to see "true winter" before the warmer and wetter March pattern arrives. The analog forecasts did very well in January with the cold plunge and cases of excessive (frozen and liquid) precipitation, so the similarity of the numerical models to the 500MB and temperature alignment should not be ignored. You have a rare -EPO/-AO/-NAO configuration forecast by all of the ensemble platforms, which have been consistent for about a week now. Remember my mantra: the worst and most extreme systems show up, with clarity, for many days before. Besides the massive conjoined blocking ridge, there is the matter of the impressive southern branch jet stream. A cAk vortex will form over James Bay and nudge into Quebec by February16. The powerful wind field will have two prominent pieces of cyclonic energy that start in western Mexico, move into Georgia and Florida, then churn northward along the Atlantic shoreline and interact with the developing cold dome. As to which system, if any, hits paydirt and intensifies while moving parallel to the East Coast, I cannot say. But there is a chance for an impressive storm with cold drainage to match vorticity and deep moisture input. In a sense, the south central, Mid-Atlantic and New England states have the chance for "something really special" in terms of precipitation amount and type. The 500MB core on all of the schemes is just below Long Island NY on or near President's Day. The second shortwave is approaching South Texas at that time. I am following the colder GGEM panels in terms of surface temperature. Now again I will warn those of you that are winter weather enthusiasts that with a decaying El Nino, a la 1973, March will be much warmer outside of the West. The western states will be dumped on by heavy wet snow in this process (think Sierra Madre and San Juan Ranges), but by spring a Mogollon Rim closed cyclone is a good possibility. The remainder of February from the High Plains into the Upper Midwest may be cold, but most likely dry.