Not sure if the NAM chasing convection is so much concective feedback as a feature of the disjointed vortmax. Not saying it’ll verify but I don’t think it’s toss level.
I'm not seeing much of a different between the 00z and 12z Euro up this way. It may be slightly better. I don't think anything post 18z will amount to much.
Given it's during the day I think salt will make pretty quick work of this outside of the areas in SEMA that get it heavier. Should be done by 4 as well. I have to drive to Littleton, MA tomorrow at noon and I'm not too worried about it.
I don't think he's necessarily wrong. Unless you have a GFS solution with closed off ML lows which I kind of doubt the strongest 850-700mb fgen is going to be over SEMA and it won't even be that strong. I'm not seeing a big ML magic signal for central/nrn CT. Not kiss it goodbye but I wouldn't go watch/warning for KTOL and surrounding areas.
There's lift in the DGZ but it's pretty damn weak unless you take the GFS verbatim. I wouldn't be super enthusiastic about forecasting >10:1 and I wouldn't be surprised if it struggles to accumulate in the March daytime given rates probably won't be too impressive.
I wouldn't blend it into the forecast but I find it interesting that pretty much all the mesos are handling it similarly. Except maybe the RGEM but it must be 5 o'clock somewhere in Canada and the Labatt is flowing.