Voyager

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

That is pretty incredible i must say and funny

There shouldn't have been any warm layers anywhere there

 

I was kind of shocked, honestly. We're all snow now, but the initial shot was pellets.

It tapered off a bit at the moment, but seeing more and more flakes mixing in. 

The initial shot, even though it was sleet, was rather impressive!

Believe it or not, but it started as sleet here in Tamaqua. Came in fast and heavy but tapered off a bit, with some flakes trying to mix in.

Just now, bubbler86 said:

You have had to listen to some of us babbling about Sn+ and it is your turn now!  Enjoy.

Thanks! It's trying to flip now. There are some "floaters" among the "pingers"...

Just came outside with the dog and went from nothing to pingers. I could see it coming as the mountains south of town were hazy. As I type this we went from nothing to a full on sleet attack...lol

Now let's see if and when it flips to flakes...

Still nothing here. Not even a furry. It's gotta be soon though. 

Just looked out the window and nothing yet, but probably safe to say that there may be flurryage (is that even a word...lol) in the southwest part of Schuylkill County by now. Temp/dp is now 30/17. I'm guessing not too much longer up here. perhaps close to 11am?

I was going to say, per the 511 cams, it looks like it's snowing in York and Carlisle now.

39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

dont fret about surface Steve.  Look at dews and temp.  You are currently at 31/16.  surface will likely cool to about 26-27 aoa onset

I hope so. 

Not liking the surface temps this morning, unless we drop a few after the precip starts. I went up one to 29f now.

Virga overhead per radar. Interesting reading from the Mid Atlantic forum. The DC area is getting blasted with snow now, and a new term for this winter was alsocreated.

The snow no longer sticks to the roads. The new way to describe it is that the roads "caved"...lmao!

10 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That's crazy.  I was in New Jersey in the great ice storm of 1994 and saw 18 degrees and mod frz rain.  Never had seen such a low temp before with liquid rain falling.  

I was going to post about that before. I remember it somewhat well. In Allentown PA we were 14 degrees when it started to rain. The WAA was pretty strong at all levels though, and it didn't take but about a few hours to get above freezing at the surface.

The only thing this morning is, gotta wonder about surface temps and how they'll play out. I'm sitting at 28f this morning. Five degrees warmer than the 23f that CTP had forecasted for me. High clouds rolled in right before sunset and helped keep radiational cooling at bay overnight.

Going frame by frame on the 0z HRRR on Tropical Tidbits with sim radar and all I can say is "wow"...

IMBY it gives 8 hours of snow before a flip to sleet.

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

I had times where the radar showed good/mod precip over my house and nothing. And this lasted for hours!!! Drove my crazy!!!!!

I've ridden on that bus many times my friend, so I can totally relate.

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Agreed. And anyone who busts tomorrow, be it high or low, deserves a pass with this setup.

Absolutely!

9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Real time here: Temp 36F (Clear) DP 20....any virga here will piss me off.

33 here and not sure of the DP, but the last part of your post made me laugh...lol

He may be pretty spot on with his contours, which I rather like. Whether his numbers verify remain to be seen.

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Trying to determine if warning criteria is close enough to warrant hoisting given the early nature of the event.

AFD this morning hinted at advisories outside the original warning area. Lets see which models they give more weight to tonight when deciding.

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

i need my eyes adjusted or lasik redone cause most of us live in 2-5ville (per map)

 

or maybe im just a misfit......

Me too. The way Canderson worded it, I expected to see almost all of CTP with 5-8 and perhaps Turnpike to I-78 and south in the 2-5.

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, gotta look at the total storm evolution.  Like you stated, dryslot is and has been part of the equation.  Wraparound/deformation will likely pad totals from front end thumpage. but to Voyagers point, dryslots are storm killers....especially in southern tier.

From past experiences IMOBY, by the time the deform swings through, the storm is too far north and if we catch some of it, it's not much of a help.

7 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

And I think that's why this is only an 8 hour storm. 

3k is out to 37 now and...no dryslot, and in fact some super heavy precip moving north. Vast difference between the two wrt to sim radar.

8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think they are underplaying the mid level warmth. In storms like these with a strong southern fetch off the ocean, the mid levels warm much quicker than anticipated. Have seen it several times in the last few years and it was responsible for the mega bust 'blizzard' of 2017. Everyone will change to sleet imo and it will come much quicker than anticipated cutting down on projected totals. There is definitely a chance for some lollipops of 6-8" in the high elevation area's though. I think 3-6" in the pocono region is a fair estimate for now almost all on the front end. There is a chance though you guys get in on the deformation band. Something to watch.

I agree. Warm air will not be denied. I've seen it so many times. I sit at 825" and if the Lehigh Valley flips, we usually do too. I said over in our own forum that I just can't see more than 3-6 out of this even for my location.

The deformation band is the caveat, but how many times does that actually work out?

12z NAM has a MASSIVE dryslot for southeastern PA @ hour 36...

17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

This looks like a perfect call imo

Interesting that she's so low in the coal region and the southern Poconos. Up here, WNEP's morning guy (Joe Snedeker) has 7.3" for Allentown and double digits for just about everyone else. And they are USUALLY very conservative...