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Voyager

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    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    I'll say this. If the NAM were to somehow be correct with both the kuchera snow totals and the ice totals. Say bye bye to Voyager for awhile. Ten inches of snow followed by 1.11 inches of ice would be destruction of an epic proportion. Add in the frigid temps and winds afterwards and the tree and power line damage would be historic. We'd probably be without power for weeks... Thankfully, we've never seen that much ice here, and I highly doubt we'd see it this time, either.

    The speculation of such a scenario, though, is mind boggling.

     

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

    My wonder is if the cold dome above us, as well as climo may save the day (and the column).  I know the "no blocking" stuff has come up over the past week, but just a couple years back we did a nice end to winter sans blocking.  We DO have cold close, and honestly i think its possible that may be at play.  

     

    State of emergency?

     

    Yuppers...

    https://wnep.com/2019/01/18/emergency-measures-in-place-ahead-of-weekend-winter-weather/

    • Thanks 1

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    All I can say is that I'm so glad I chose not to go back out on another run yesterday after I returned from North Carolina. If I would have, I'd have likely drawn a 3 day trip somewhere that would have gotten me home late Saturday afternoon or evening. Now with the State of Emergency and the ban on commercial vehicles, I probably wouldn't have gotten home at all, and would have been stuck out for AT LEAST one extra day, alone in a truckstop or rest area somewhere, waiting for the Governor to lift the ban. No thanks. I would rather enjoy this storm from the comforts of home with my wife and family.

     

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Did you all see that CTP went warning region-wide? More north, but for my area back to the Harrisburg area: 

    Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
101 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to
  12 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch
  are expected.

* WHERE...South central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. Heavy snow will
  move into the area Saturday afternoon and last into the late
  evening. A change to sleet and freezing rain will occur during
  the night. The heaviest of the snow will be from early afternoon
  through late evening.

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

    This one has been frustrating to me as it seemed apparent, early week, that there was nothing that was going to stop this low from getting up to or north of us...then the models kept hinting, almost every other run, that the low could jump and transfer southeast just in time to turn a big rain storm into a MECS so it lured me in.

    Don't you know that since the internet and us weenies having access to the models, the programmers put that extra code in there for the models to do that...just to aggravate us. Then they join the forums, and lurk, laughing as we go emotional over each model run. :ph34r:

    :lol:

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, canderson said:

    So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? 

    Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?

    Shovel it as it flips and keep salting the hell out of it... 

    Honestly, I don't know. That's always been my dilemma in these types of storms. When to shovel for maximum (and safe) effect and the least amount of work.

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    CTP keeps dropping the hammer further south but keeps a razor-sharp gradient right at the Flathead's house on the toll road.

    They seem to be realigning the gradient to a more southwest to northeast trajectory. Last night it was a bit more west to east, and I was in the 8-12 zone. Per their latest map, I'm now in the 6-8 zone, so while some of your totals are increasing, mine are decreasing.

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    I was never big on overpaying for one player. It's not like he is going to make us an overnight contender by himself anyway. Why waste the cash? Put a chunk of that money towards a legit ace starting pitcher instead. Need a solid top 3 which we dont have still. 

    Can't say I disagree, but they are going hard after Machado or Harper, so I'd rather have Harper. I think he has more of a team attitude than a me attitude like Machado. As for starting pitchers, who's still available. Keuchel?

    So as not to go off topic too much, this storm. As is usual around these parts, track and precip types are giving me a headache. One takeaway, it seems, is that even up my way, the best rates are going to be wasted on zr or ip. My NWS point-click has 1-2 inches of "precipitation" during the darkness hours Saturday night/Sunday morning. I'll admit to not digging too deep into the models for other than surface temps and precipitation totals, since I was in the truck, and navigating Tidbits or Pivotal is quite cumbersome on a cell phone. I've mainly been following you guys and the Central PA forum for good information.

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Still snowing lightly, but I didn't get near what some of you got. I put the dog out, and would say there's only about a quarter inch out there.

    As for the NWS forecast...man, if this was all snow. They won't give me frozen accumulations in the point-click, but for Saturday night, they say 1-2 inches of "precipitation". Too bad most of that in that time frame will be taint.

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    Speaking of tonight’s snow, light snow has picked back up here in Marysville. We are now over 1 inch so far tonight.

     

    7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    Me too.  Snowing nicely again and just hitting the 1.0" mark.  Looks like you can subtract 2" from the weekend storm total map.

    And very little of that got here. What we got so far wasn't enough to even dust bare ground or streets/sidewalks. 

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

    i've seen the reality of this before, and the models may now be picking this up in the highest resolutions. when you're talking elevations in northeast PA, you have the cities at the valley floor of the Susquehanna at ~ 450ft MSL (~145m), which translates to ~14hPa from Sea Level Pressure using normal assumptions. but when we talk most of the towns in the Poconos, we're talking most crevices at ~1300-1400ft msl (400-430m) which translates to ~40-43hPa, with the mountain tops between 1900-2300ft msl (580-700m), which can be ~58-70hPa. if you look at most sounding profiles carefully in an over-running situation like we are looking at and then look at the real temperatures, you'll actually be warmer say in Hazleton or Mount Pocono than you would at Avoca or Wilkes Barre because the warm layer aloft in that small distance doesn't change height much, but the column in which the air can cool back down is a lot shallower at ~925 or 935 hPa in Hazleton or Tobyhanna than it would be going all the way down to ~980-990 hPa in downtown Wilkes Barre, Pittston, or Mocanaqua. As a result, you'll more likely see sleet in the valley near US 11 but head up the mountain on PA 93, I-81, PA 115, PA 309, or I-380; and you're more likely to see it be freezing rain in say Hazleton, Mount Pocono, Bear Creek near the Turnpike, or Tobyhanna because the melted water is cool enough to be super-cooled but not enough to turn all the way to sleet/ice pellets (just a few J short).

    So the models, when displaying snow/sleet accumulations, might be picking up on that fact and adjusting amounts accordingly.

    Thanks Jim. I was wondering if the elevations we're high enough for such a situation. I know that at times the cold air drains into the valleys such that Hazleton can be as much as 10-15 degrees warmer than where I live in Tamaqua.

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