Voyager

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes - I admit I was somewhat skeptical about today but no longer...radar is angry (almost looks like it's boiling) and there's no where for it to go...

The sky itself literally looks like it's boiling, and as for the humidity, at the water plant in Fogelsville it was off the charts. Even I couldn't stand how oppressive it felt, especially in the sun. I'm up near Tamaqua getting another load now and it's mostly overcast here.

46 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The NAM forecast soundings are not pretty

2:00 PM (Second Image)

Thermodynamics:

Moisture has deepened significantly through the low-mid troposphere.

CAPE increasing. Inversion breaking down.


CIN: Nearly eliminated.

Wind: Weak veering. Still light but flow is organizing.

Interpretation:
This is the convective initiation (CI) window.
Expect first storms around or after this point, especially if boundaries are present.
Tall, narrow CAPE profile supports efficient rainfall.



---

5:00 PM (Third Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE is strong, with tall and narrow shape: classic flash flood profile.

Fully saturated up to ~500 mb.


Wind:

Still weak steering, slight veering.

Winds supportive of parallel cell orientation, a key factor in training/banding.


Interpretation:
This is the high risk time for backbuilding storms.
Low LCLs + tall moist layer = efficient rain production.
Very favorable for anchored convection with heavy rain.



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8:00 PM (Bottom Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE remains robust.

Deep warm-cloud layer (melting level) = high rainfall efficiency.


Winds:

Very weak aloft → poor storm motion → cells likely to stall.

Shear drops significantly.


Interpretation:
Flash flood risk peaks if convection sustains.
Weak outflow winds suggest training, merging cores, or cell regeneration.


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Great discussion, but is it region wide, or more south and east positioned?

Second warned storm of the day on our doorstep.

0.31" from whatever got Tamaqua.

Finally got one in Tamaqua, but I'm sitting in the eye doctor's chair where the blue dot is... 

Well, I'm warned for the one south of Pottsville that popped up. We'll see what comes of it.

Growing, but again, I-78 and south...

For a storm lover, this is and has been, painful to see.

Humpf...

Same as it ever was.

Yup. Partly sunny and steamy today. Will the storms produce today or not. That is the question...

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

after the beginning of the week storm, looking like a pretty nice stretch through the holiday weekend. Finally a summer holiday i can breakout the american flag speedo and not sit around the pool in hunting ear 

The idea of you in a speedo make me wish for 60 and drizzle...

26 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

NWS State College:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The widespread stormy and unsettled pattern resumes Monday with
a shortwave trough and subsequent falling heights progressing
through the Great Lakes, putting the Commonwealth back in the
warm sector as deeper moisture is pulled north. Partly cloudy
skies to begin the day on Monday will allow for plenty of
destabilization. This combined with the above mentioned moisture
return and increasing deep layer shear of around 25-30 knots
will provide the ingredients for another round of strong storms
Monday afternoon/evening. Strong outflow winds and heavy
rainfall look to be the primary threats.

They forgot the part that says "except wherever Voyager is located, and/or Tamaqua"....lol

So here's how yesterday at Knoebels panned out. Around 4:30 the sky to the west got black as night, and it looked like a solid pummelling was to commence in short order, so we bailed and headed to the car. The rain came, but it was nothing more than a shower that got everything wet, but no thunder or lightning. The line had broken apart. Some went north of 80 and some stayed south along and near the 81/78 split. By the time we got to Frackville (Cracker Barrel) it was high and dry.

The "Tamaqua Split" yesterday became the "Elysburg Split"...

31 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

We are visiting some friends at their campsite here near Dutch Wonderland and it’s absolute mayhem. Mega drenching storms with round two on the way! Mill Creek is about to rage. 

Wonder why the storms keep raking the same general areas this year. South of 78 and north of 80 seem to be the hot spots.

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Well it all collapsed. I might get .05” maybe - it’s a heavy sprinkle. 

I did the same in Elysburg. It did rain hard enough to wet the ground pretty good though 

28 minutes ago, canderson said:

T-Storm watches hoisted until 8 pm for everyone W/N of Dauphin County 

You know, now that I DON'T want to see one (at Knoebels) we'll get one...

12 hours ago, canderson said:

This was a perfect evening for dinner of steak and fries and beers on Millworks’ roof. Now going to cut the grass in hopes of rain tomorrow. 

Hush...

Today's my wife's company picnic at Knoebels.

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I get one "decent" thunderstorm and lose a big tree because of it. 

Give me light rain/drizzle/mist 24/7/365.

That happened at my mom's in AZ in 2023. It was the nonsoon monsoon, but we did get one big storm, which had to rip the roof off her patio. Glad it wasn't the main roof, but still...

I was just glad I was out there when it happened as it was easier for me to get it fixed as opposed to her trying with her handicapped condition.

We can't get a decent thunderstorm to save our lives here, but we do drizzle and mist quite well...

FML 

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

I thought it was raining this morning - turns out it was just the city flushing the fire hydrant across the street. 

Saturday afternoon/early evening look like a decent chance of rain at least. 

That would be a bummer as it's my wife's company picnic day at Knoebels.

49 minutes ago, Porsche said:

Just from last evening storm.

Dump all that water out and you'll get my rainfall total from yesterday...lol

7 hours ago, canderson said:

Story of the past 2 weeks 

Story of the past decade for me. We do well with synoptic rain, but convective storms avoid Tamaqua like the plague...

Here's the latest one forming right at the edge of Tamaqua that will roll south to Allentown again...

As I've been saying for awhile now. If I like or want it, I can't have it, but if I hate it, I can have it in abundance. And that goes for everything, not just storms.

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Being split by a line with nice oranges. 

Same here. Volatile as hell out there, but the storms are up in Scranton (again) and down along I-78 from Allentown to Hamburg.

Same old same old. Wash, rinse, repeat..  

46 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Actually, it looks like a storm is trying to  form right over the house, and I hear a few drops hitting the patio roof. 

Thing is, forming storms usually mature south and east of me, and I'm left relatively "high and dry"....

As I said. Guess which direction I'm looking....

Actually, it looks like a storm is trying to  form right over the house, and I hear a few drops hitting the patio roof. 

Thing is, forming storms usually mature south and east of me, and I'm left relatively "high and dry"....

Radar looks good for a Tamaqua miss again. Scranton looks good right now, but they almost always seem to get the goods in a ripe environment.