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Voyager

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    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Just now, djr5001 said:

    Dew point temps at the surface are not going to be what the issue is - it’s going to be the upper air temps by the time the main precipitation actually arrives.  The 10:1 maps are printing out snow totals for the area that they just dropped the warning for that are several inches higher than how things are looking like they will play out (12z Euro Kutchera has MDT at 1” snow total for example).  What was supposed to be the front end thump for LSV has ended up further away from the low and is well north than what models were showing prior to this morning.  What was supposed to be the start of heavy snow around here by 2-3 pm models like HRRR runs today don’t have arriving until 7-8pm with warm air aloft right on the doorstep.

    This is a good analysis. I was thinking along those lines, myself. The main slug of precipitation is still out in West Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky.

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

    They just dropped the warnings for LSV.   Surprising this late.  If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours.  Dp's are below forecasted.

    I see that. They dropped them for Schuyllkill County as well.

    If this ends up being the final result then this really turns into a non-event. We've done better in moisture starved clippers...lol 

    * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
  inches, with with areas of sleet and freezing rain. Ice
  accumulations of a tenth of an inch or less expected.

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

    Current temp up to 35 here, I think I can feel pretty confident in saying the chance of frozen here is very minimal. It wouldn't surprise me if the NWS dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for my area.

    35 over here in the PA coal region as well. Much warmer than I'd hoped or expected, but cloud cover and high DP's kept the temperature up overnight.

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    WGAL predictor shows RAIN all the way up in State College. Hay-Zeus, that's a surge of warmf.

    If the HRRR is right and the primary stays intact and runs from West Virginia to Scranton to Eastern NY state, it's no wonder plain rain gets so far north. Transfer doesn't take place until the low is near the Middletown/Newburgh area. The 12z HRRR run gets plain rain almost to Binghamton...

    Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

    in New England

    Posted

    Just now, LibertyBell said:

    What are they calling for now? The last I saw it was 4 for Allentown and 8 for Mt Pocono and then up to 0.25 of ice.

    Those areas are Philly/Mt Holly, so not sure. I think they were at 6-8 at one point yesterday for Allentown. I'm in the State College CWA, and a lot of us in our sub-forum felt that they were being extremely bullish with their forecasts despite most of the models showing otherwise. FWIW, this morning, I am already sitting at 33 degrees up here in the coal region between Allentown and Scranton.

    • Like 1

    Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

    in New England

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

    This is why we don’t throw huge totals out as forecasts 3 days before game time...go conservative.  That first BOX map was destined to go down in flames...

    Ha. Then I see State College wasn't the only one going big on this one when perhaps they shouldn't have. Even as late as last night, they had the 8-12  inch gradient running through Harrisburg, PA to just north of Allentown, PA which many thought was considerably overdone. Turns out we might have been right as they have backed off considerably with this morning's new forecasts and updates.

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Just now, Atomixwx said:

    Not feeling it today, guys. Just don't think this is going to happen.

    That's my thought upon waking up this morning. The temp is still right at 32 so there was only a 3 degree drop since last night. I'd have been much more comfortable if we got down into the mid 20's at least. CTP did lower my totals in the warning text to 4-8 and the probabilistic map from 8-12 to 6-8.

    Of course, I don't know what 850's are doing, but a surface temp at 32 first thing in the morning is not at all comforting, especially when we probably have about 6 hours until the onset of precipitation. The surface could warm a few degrees such as that by the time the precip starts, we are already in the mid/upper 30's. The air already seems to be saturated, so how much (if any) dynamic cooling could we get?

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