Voyager

Mount Holly is rather busllish wrt to the Poconos. One county and about 5 miles east of me and watches are hoisted. Lets see what CTP does...

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 237 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 Carbon-Monroe- Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg 237 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties. * WHEN...From 7AM Tuesday through 7AM Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Did some measuring of the glacier pack around the yard and it was a pretty uniform 5.5-6". That's pretty good snowpack retention with all the rain. Then again the station nearby didn't finally crack the 32-33ºF mark until nearly 9am this morning when it briefly spiked to 38ºF and was back below freezing by mid-afternoon. 

I mentioned to wsptwx yesterday about possible small creek and drainage issues but not bigger problems with the larger waterways as interior counties (that make up West Branch Susquehanna basin) probably weren't going to lose significant snowpack. You think it still would have been at least addressed with a flood advisory if not an areal flood warning. Especially with how much you ended up spiking temp wise and as much rainfall as your neck of the woods ended up with. 

I would have thought that the qpf outputs on most of the models being around 2 inches (I did end at 1.78 inches) plus the snow melt (see my image from yesterday) and I would have thought the Southeastern counties would have had a watch.

Why does the polar vortex always have to drop into the Eastern US? You never hear of it dropping into the west. If airfare to Phoenix wasn't $700, I'd be heading there this weekend...

14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Is it smaller streams/creeks type flooding or poor drainage? (Or both)

Two in my area. Country Club Road, and Lizard Creek Road (PA895) are from creek flooding. Others, I'm not sure about. PA61 up by Sunbury is a full closure, so I suppose that one is creek flooding as well.

There are a handfull of road closures in and around the area due to flooding. Williamsport and I talked about this yesterday and here we are. No watch or advisories were issued, not even a mention other than in the AFD about not needing to issue any flood statements.

2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

any local Harrisburg peeps with a rain gauge? 

the cricks are getting high

Don't know about the Harrisburg area, by it looks like I'll finish up at around 1.80" in my backyard (1.78" currently) with perhaps a small bit to go per radar. My temp sensor may be shot, but my rain gauge is still reading correctly per the USGS gauge a half mile from the house...

44 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I've only been in Tamaqua since 2001, so I don't know about times prior. Since my arrival, -10 and 101 were my records. Rainfall, of course came this year. The snowpack is taking a hit now with the heavy rain and a temp that is sitting at 59 degrees (we briefly hit 60 a little while ago) so I don't know how much will be left when all is said and done. today.

I stand corrected. I guess the temperature sensor is flaking out in my station. I looked at the old mercury thermometer on my back porch and it's only 50 here. I have an 8 year old Accu-Rite station, but I guess it's near the end of it's life.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

wow 60! that was unexpected

Yes it is. Guidance only took me to the low 50's this morning. The fog, as you can imagine, is pretty bad up here.

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks I was wondering what the all time highs and lows you've recorded there are.  I think our highest was during the July 2010 heatwave and our lowest was probably in Jan 1985 or Jan 1994.

I'm pretty sure this past year has the all time precip record- not sure if 1983 or 2011 topped that.

 

 

I've only been in Tamaqua since 2001, so I don't know about times prior. Since my arrival, -10 and 101 were my records. Rainfall, of course came this year. The snowpack is taking a hit now with the heavy rain and a temp that is sitting at 59 degrees (we briefly hit 60 a little while ago) so I don't know how much will be left when all is said and done. today.

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let me know how much of your snow/ice pack you have left after the event, I'm going on a trip up there this weekend, Lake Harmony region.  Thanks!

 

The extremes and precip amounts in your sig, are they for ABE?

 

We are holding our piddly snowpack quite well. We got an inch and a half of rain Saturday night/Sunday morning on 2.5" of snow. Then it froze into a rock. I don't think we'll be warm enough, long enough to lose all of it. As for my sig, I have a backyard weather station, so those numbers are for Tamaqua proper.

Temp spike here.

I sat down at the desktop about 15 minutes ago and it was 50 degrees. Now it's up to 56 degrees. It's too bad we can't sneak out one full day of this mild air (even with the rain) before the temps crash post FROPA...

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

I am absolutely concerned about the next 24 hours. The PWAT at record levels. I have 2-4 inches of water laden snow/sleet glaciers in my yard. The soils are frozen to a depth of at least a foot or more and our super saturated. The amount of water held in those glaciers are incredible. The floodplain is completely flooded as a frozen lake by my house.  The forecast of 2-3 inches of rainfall along with the snowmelt on frozen soils will create flooding on our local streams that have not been seen since the last major hurricane.  It will a 100% runoff event- no soaking in and no evaporation. Why the NWS is not issuing flood warnings already for the smaller streams is baffling to me. It will happen. I guess they are hoping  the forecast two inches of rain will magically disappear. Based on my confidence levels of doing the weather for 40 years, this is a no brainer. Hope none of you have broken sump pumps. Basements will be flooding everywhere too and water will be ponding everywhere up in the LV

We've been having this discussion over in the Central PA forum, where we don't even have watches issued. Most of the guidance is showing at least an inch and a half of rain and the NAMs are showing 2+ inches up my way along with temps pushing 50 degrees prior to FROPA. I saved and posted a map of modeled water equivalent snow melt earlier and it does show at least about another inch (if what it's showing is correct) melting off in addition to the rainfall. Like you said, this will be happening with saturated ground that is frozen, so most of the rain and snow melt will run-off. I would think that smaller streams and creeks would be vulnerable to flooding in this situation.

5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Ummm...why no flood watches when every model has us getting a 40 degree soaking into a water loaded snow pack? Nam just put down 2 to 4 in 33 hours.

Good question. Down here I might push 50 degrees at some point before FROPA, and according to the NWS, there is at least .50 to 1.00 inch water equivalent in the snow pack down my way. If this map is correct, 2.00" + the snow melt should give us what would be 2.50" to 3.00" of rain...on frozen ground. You'd think that down this way, at least, that would push smaller streams up toward bankfull.

Even up to 30 here at the present time.

21 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

do you fellas remember.........................................................January 22-23, 2016 33" 

I got "only" 20" out of that one. I-78 to I-81 and points SOUTHWEST got totally slammed. The three lane section of I-81 in Martinsburg, WV was reduced to one lane in spots because the plows couldn't push the snow any further. Check out my video from Monday morning going down to Weyer's Cave, VA. It starts in Hazleton where they had 12-15" and goes through the section of West Virginia that got over 40".

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

I think it’s why we have had so many big snowstorms in the past 25 years.

And why most of the big storms have been focused on the I-95
 

That has been the big take away for me regarding the pattern over the past 10-20 years. It sure does seem like I-95 and points east really cash in when we have a KU event. When I was a kid and teenager back in the 70's and 80's, it seemed like more of the big snowstorms were always north and west of I-95. Philly often rained while the Lehigh Valley (where I grew up) and northwest cashed in. The other thing is the frequency of such storms. How many foot+ snowstorms has the DC to NYC corridor gotten in the past, say 15 years, as opposed to times prior?

Heat wave here. It's +6f as opposed to the +2f I had yesterday morning...

I almost lost my car in Easton, PA during that flooding event. My dad and I went down and parked at the park on Larry Holmes Drive near where the Lehigh flows into the Delaware. An ice jam formed down stream and the river rose incredibly fast. I ran back to my car and got it out just in time as the waters engulfed and inundated the lot in mere minutes. Never seen anything like it in my life.

+2f this morniing here in Tamaqua. Who made it below zero overnight?

Was out with dog and the whole neighborhood sounds like a bowl of Rice Krispies. All the ice is snap, crackel, and popping...lol

What sun? We have had flurries and squalls ever since the front went through.

It's damn cold already too... 

Winds picked up about 45 minutes ago and we had a quick little snow squall to go along with it. It was too warm to stick at that point, but you could literally feel the cold pouring into the area. Got all the shoveling and plowing done. Now to watch it all freeze solid.

30 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I don’t have a gauge, I’d love to know how much rain we got over night. I got up at 4 and it was still raining. I pity anyone who didn’t clean up last night. I shoveled my driveway last night and only had sidewalks to finish this morning, shits heavy

I'm up to 1.92" for the storm, but the USGS automated gauge a half mile or so from the house is showing 1.42". Someone (me or them) is off as the difference shouldn't be that large in such a short distance.

Morning obs from Tamaqua:

It's still raining and the temp is up to 40 degrees here. I almost wish we'd have made it into the 50's. Why? Because so far, my 2.5" of snow from last night has melted and compacted down to one inch of slush and slop. If it were warmer, I may not have to go out and attempt to remove this stuff, which must be done early and soon, before it freezes into a rock.

So far, I have gotten 1.49" of precipitation (snow, sleet, and rain) from the system. I do wish it would have been cold enough to stay powder instead of what is curretnly out there. It would have been a great event if it had...

Have some freezing rain mixed with the sleet as I notice ice forming on our power lines.

2.75" of frozen for the event at the current time. 2.5" snow and 0.25" sleet.