Voyager

I guess with nightfall and the instability diminishing, so is the areal coverage of the rain. The eastern edge (where I am) of the line is weakening somewhat, and the heaviest rains actually appear to be shrinking back slightly westward...

Storms to left of me, rain to the right...

Here I am, stuck in the middle and dry...

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

I mentioned this the other day but I’d be very interested in a thermal dynamics study.

The lower Susquehanna Valley for a decade or more has cashed in on all sorts of extreme setups - snow, rain, wind. The exact same spots. 

Yeah, I remember that post. There is something to it, though. With the moist southerly flow, you'd have thought that upsloping would have caused us to see much more precip than we did. This event, and past ones (TS Lee comes to mind) reminds me of the winter when I sit in the subsidence zone between two heavy bands of snow

Also, I have this nagging feeling that when it does reach my location, the back edge will be moving faster than the leading edge and it'll be in and out in 15 minutes. If you've watched my posts, the radar, and the general weather pattern in and around Tamaqua, you'll see that it's been this way for years. No matter what kind of event, set up, or season.

Hell, even the worst storm in probably a century (Sandy) was rather benign here. There is definitely something about the geography and topography of northeastern Schuylkill County that tames or prevents any kind of extreme event here.

2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Not a drop here and I've been fine with that. Enough is enough. Too many people are being too adversely affected by this. However...looks like my dry day is about to end.

Which is one of the reasons I'd like to have seen this move east as time progressed. Aside from my selfish, weather enthusiast mentality that wants to be in the "bullseye" for a weather event, I, too, feel sorry for those who've already seen massive flooding, and are seeing buckets of unwanted rain yet again.

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Flash flood warning fir Harrisburg until 9:30. 

At this point CTP should issue headlines if it won’t rain.

 

And they can start with Tamaqua. It hasn't {{{yawn}}} rained a drop here all day...

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

I'd take that in a minute. Beats the hell out of the dull summer we ve had so far.

I'm right there with you. It's why we are weather enthusiasts. Anomalous and historical weather is what a lot of us crave. I, for the most part, hate winter, and even snow, but...if the potential is there, then I want a blizzard. It's no different with the warmer seasons. Severe storms, training rain events, hurricanes...etc. I love following and tracking them, and even more-so, experiencing them when they happen.

39 minutes ago, canderson said:

Oh hey it’s pouring again - it’s like a broken record. 

It sure is. Just looked at the radar, and although the trajectory has changed a bit, the same areas that got it the past few days are getting it yet again.

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

 

Haha, was it you Sunday who tempted the weather gods by saying the flash flood warning was a fail because it barely rained that day?



. Pro

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Yea lol. Then around 9 pm it started raining and hadn’t really stopped 

I tried that for my location the other day by saying CTP should cancel the flood watch here.

It didn't work...lol

We did get 3.5" here today, though.

Picked up 0.81" here since midnight with the heaviest falling right as my wife was leaving for work. As for me, I get to go to Honesdale this afternoon and pick up a group and take them into JFK Airport. it'll be interesting to see what I encounter during my travels, AND what I might come home to later.

You really can't make this stuff up. All the action to the west that I'm missing out on, and now the east as well... 

Just now, Anduril said:

If you manage to find any sort of research paper on stuff like that I'd love to see it! Cause...seriously I have no idea

I wish I could. I guess it bothers me somewhat because it's not just this event. Every single time we get a set up like this the same area gets it, and I sit painfully just east of the action.

Riddle me this. What is causing the same areas to get dumped on while others get very little? It seems the plume has originated over the Chesapeake Bay the past 3 days and moved right up the Susquehanna valley and it's tributary locations. 

6 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Really? We've had several cells roll through the area today.

I have 2.25" for the whole event since Sunday morning. Today's total (so far) was 0.55"

I suppose it's better than Allentown, though. According to WNEP, they only got 0.06" today.

Looking at the radar, CTP may as well drop the flood watch for Eastern Schuylkill County. We aren't getting crap out of this. The plumes just keep training over the same damn area with nothing upstream to even give me any hope...

40 minutes ago, canderson said:

That storm that just hit HBG has serious crazy rain. We had water halfway up our RAV4 tires on the camp hill bypass. It is hauling north though. Very fast mover. 

I was about to say that you guys down there look to be getting some action soon.

Cluster of storms rolled through from the south a few minutes ago, but miraculously split right in town and regrouped north of me. I got a whole whopping tenth of an inch out of it...

Just now, canderson said:

ABC27 just said this storm system is nearly identical to the Tropical Storm Lee 2011 week that led to the Susquahanna cresting at 25.2' and flooding a major part of the city. So be prepared for a major flood.

That seems a bit premature, no? 

I mentioned that to my wife yesterday. Similar set up, but perhaps not as wet...

57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Can I join your pity party? Nothing in my yard yesterday or overnight, although a few miles to my west had 4 rounds of heavy rain amounting to 3+ inches. The prospects here look meh for today, as most of the action should be over central MD and N VA. And I bet you get an inch+ today.

I feel your pain. Water rescues and flooding just 25 miles southwest of me from post midnight storms, and I got 0.13" in my backyard during the same time period.

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Be thankful

I should be, but the weather "geek" in me wants to see something interesting in my own locale. It sounds sick, but in a way it's not unlike those who want to see that 30+ inch blizzard in their own backyard.

After all, isn't that why we follow the weather? To experience the anomalous?

43 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sounds like Schuylkill County has had a ton of water rescues this morning. 

Yup. The southwestern half. Up my way, nada. Everything missed west, as usual.

10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Im at 6.12" since Sat.  

I'm at 1.83" in the same time period. And only 0.13" since midnight. I can't even squish any water in my backyard when I walk through it.

Saturday: 1.20"

Saturday overnight: 0.00"

Sunday: 0.50"

Sunday overnight: 0.02"

Monday (so far); 0.11"

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Yesterday and last night delivered the goods. Nearly 3" fell since 4:00pm yesterday, now at 4.8" for the "event." 

Rain woke me up around 2:00am...checked radar and my first thought was that it looked eerily similar to Lee. 

I swear, the Susquehanna Valley is just a heavy rain magnet. Every time we get an event like this, the training, and heaviest precipitation seems to run right up the Susquehanna. Never to the east. Being a weather "geek", I love anomalous events, especially in my backyard, but it never happens...

Picked up a quick half inch in Tamaqua. I wonder where that cluster in Maryland is headed?

Looking at the current radar, I can see who might end up getting shafted again... 

50 minutes ago, Voyager said:

1.20" here from the hybrid/noreaster. Now to see where the heaviest rains fall the rest of the week...

Per the CTP discussion, it looks like the rich may get richer (if you like anomalous weather)

Precipitation is expected to be much
less organized today but may fall over areas that have received
3+ inches of rain in the past 12-18 hours. With soils saturated
in some areas, the locally heavy rain will have the potential to
produce isolated flooding/runoff issues. Unlike yesterday,
confidence in the QPF details is quite low. However, there
appears to be a +RA signal in the 06Z HREF mean/blend QPF that
would place a QPF max very close to where the highest amounts
were recently observed.