Syrmax

Yeah that would bullseye both of us. Bring it. Gonna be a close call for 5-6pm commute out of SYR.

Philly always looks best when you can't see it.

That map, like others, is focused on one area. The mapmakers never pay attention outside their specific area of concern.

looks good as a broad brush. Where any banding sets up and how the leading WAA thump plays out will be critical. BGM area will also have the warm nose to deal with which could hold down snow totals a couple/few inches. Or not. I don't think we have any dry slot concerns with this system, mercifully.

We had 20" of snow on 11/21-22/2016 and 14" on ground Thanksgiving that year, which was the 24th IMBY. I think all of us in CNY had similar numbers. That was by far the snowiest Thanksgiving since I've been here, 15 years. This may come in 2nd.

KROC...not the best snow growth profile but not horrid.

KBGM ****e snow growth at 30 h. Still snow but low ratios.

Anyone looked at DGZ vs UVV? This looks ok.

My 1st guess - subject to frequent revision ala DT (first call, preliminary call, last call) with limiting factor in (.) ALB 5" (HRV Torch) BUF 3" (Too west) ROC 4.5" (Snow growth) FUL 5" (Snow growth) SYR 6.5" (Sun angle...just Too warm) BGM 7.5" (Warm nose) SCR 4 5" (Snow Death Valley) WTR 4" (Too North) ITH 5.5" (Seriously?) YYZ 3" (Too Canada) Jackpots: higher elevations >1000' of CPA (and wherever JB lives), on NE towards Catskills, Mountains of VT/NH and...high peaks of NE CT.

Passing a law/regulation to require snow tires seems unnecessary (and expensive). A good set of all season radials (that aren't near end of life) is usually good enough to drive in most winter weather, in most vehicles, particularly since the advent of front wheel drive and All/4 WD. Back in the days of rear wheel drive, things were definitely more "entertaining" driving in snow (or watching others attempt to). Excessive speed and inattention are what cause most accidents whether in snow or really any conditions - there's just less margin for error on snowy/wet surfaces. And yeah, having traveled by car to Toronto for conferences a few times, I can vouch for GTA's impressive gridlock!

I'm trying to figure out what will be the screwjob cause this time. Sun angle? BL temps? Omega mismatched with SGZ, weak/late slp development, NWP mis-model? So many choices.

I seem to recall seeing this sort of thing last winter, where WNW/NW bands seemed to orient just to our S&W somewhat often, leaving us in a relative minima compared to our N & S. Apparently, the lake has a memory and enjoys our whining.

I stand slightly corrected. 4.5" measured, 0.33" liquid. I'll call this an underachiever versus a bust, depending on what forecast is being compared...4-7", 5-10" etc.

Looks like an inch or two here. No more than 3 though. Barely worth going out and measuring. Thankfully I decided to catch up on my sleep and missed yet another epic LES bust.

Few flurries so far this evening. Popcorn snow dendrite type for the most part thusfar. Ground still warm so quite a bit may melt off except if more organized banding develops here later on tonight.

Looks like KSYR can hit the 9" avg snowfall for November between overnight tonight and then Thursday night. Not bad although cant say I'm thrilled about winter arriving so early, again. I need a hot tub.

I don't take LES maps too seriously. At least around our area. Its more of a general idea on location and intensity/duration. Too fickle and too many things can go wrong.

Agreed.

So, predictably, NWS calls for 3-6" here overnight into Sunday afternoon. Not sure what they are thinking as we have a) warm ground b) sfc temps >32, c) SN- that melts fast and, d) no snowfall most of the time. Unreal. Tuesday looks like a slightly snowier version of Friday. A wet inch or so for most of us. Hills will have actual accumulation. Its early. Let's try again in December or January.

KBGM idea for tonight into Sunday. Guess I’m not getting the final lawn cut and leaves mulched up this weekend here just N of SYR.

KBUF clown maps almost always overstated near us for Tug LES setups. Cut totals in half. Maybe a slushy 1 or 2". Next Tuesday looks like mainly rain/mmix here in low elevations and Mohawk Valley. Probably a slopfest that amounts to not much here. Still very early in season.

Was thinking of mowing the yard one last time but was busy Sunday. Traditional to cut one last time then swap riding mower for the snowblower...could be tough this time around. Let me be the first to say "Congrats Tug" for the upcoming *maybe* event and for the whole season. Go 'Cuse!

Not a bad day today near ‘Cuse. Not to mention ‘Cuse victory. Solid fall weather although mostly cloudy and no rain other than an early sprinkle. Forecasts were definately more pessimistic than reality. Hopefully same on Sunday, just chillier.

There are problems with AGW theory... but moreso in terms of the myriad idiotic predictions of every possible bad thing happening as a result of some warming (too hot, too cold, more bugs, less bugs, etc etc.), usually done to further some vested interest. This has developed into a robust cottage industry that i've been observing since the Summer of 1988 with a low success rate of accuracy. Regardless, earth has warmed in aggregate, even discounting the data manipulation controversies and scandals over the years. One can argue how much warming has occurred but there has been a couple of degrees of warming. Its not unreasonable to think human activity (CO2) has had an impact - although being able to parse how much of the temperature rise is soley due to human influence vs other factors (cycles etc), is impossible...and that's where politics and stupidity gets involved. And where I check out of such discussions... Frankly, given where we live, a little bit of warming isn't the worst thing that could happen.

Some sleet mixed in w/ rain just now in downtown 'Cuse. First of season. And so it begins...