Syrmax

The added bonus to keep an eye on is that after the synoptically enhanced wraparound pulls out very early Thursday morning, perhaps just after midnight...we may see a lull before some true Lake Effect gets cranking after a shortwave passage late Thursday into Friday morning.

Ok, this is probably the last storm of the season...here’s 00z 32km (regular) NAM using Kuchera method. Lots of pretty colors.

Yup. The swine. 32km NAM below. 10:1...Not doing Kuchera...still pretty decent thru Thursday eve.

00Z 3k NAM Clown. Guessing we see 8-10” out of this.

This doesnt look half bad.

Yeah, timing of trough a tad late to keep it tucked in but it does get drawn back NW to throw us scraps on the backside. Although, if 3K NAM is right, some pretty nice scraps. It’s not done running but looks impressive here thru hr 50. But of course most of that won’t really happen per some, who seem to sometimes forget this isn’t Scranton.

I thought there was a standing BW to cover their CWA in perpetuity?

LOL. Headley! This looks like NWS trying to protect their phoney baloney jobs! snowing and accumulating here, but not on roads. Thus it’s not happening. and that’s for KBUF. We melt here, across the river. Harumph!

In a “good” winter, or at least Feb into March, I achieve peak snowpile depth at my mailbox in the first week or two of March and then we start slowly melting down by the third or fourth week of March. Our depth hasn’t been as impressive as some early March periods, but agree the duration should go on pretty long, as you mentioned. If I am to believe local NWS, despite NWP estimates of 1.1 - 1.2” Liquid Equivalent snowfall, we won’t really get any snow to accumulate this week as the March sun, downsloping, limited snow growth, cellular lake enhancement, wind shear, diurnal influences, high winds, light winds, road salt, and locusts will apparently conspire to limit accumulations to nuisance amounts other than on some select ridge tops. In fact, I’m surprised Flood Watches aren’t being issued.

As Freak mentioned, Small flakes have commenced. Wolfie is right about the ivt positioning. A couple inches possible, probably in the higher ground unless we get fortunate.

Yikes...that's some cold. I saw the EC h850 maps out thru 240...but dayum.

Here's the 3km Snow clown thru hr 60. Problems are: 1) its the NAM, 2) its an off hr run (18Z), 3) KBGM & KBUF AFDs have six different reasons why this won't materialize that don't include 1 or 2. Other than on a few hilltops somewhere in CNY. So basically, this is just a big oh-never-mind event.

Gotta admit, not sure i've ever seen a WWA that includes 10-20" of snow forecasted... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 312 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 NYZ009-018-036-037-131915- /O.EXB.KBGM.WW.Y.0019.180312T2200Z-180315T0600Z/ Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 312 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulations tonight and Tuesday will be 2 to 5 inches. Total snow accumulations will be 10 to 15 inches, with localized amounts up to 20 inches. This will be a long duration light snow event.

Eurotrash 10:1 map thru 84 hrs. Padding the stats here...

That pretty much sums it up. We seem to get quasi-constant winter up here with brief breaks. Others get a day of glory once in a while then back to 40s. Would be nice to get a respectable dump more often but winter here is a different beast.

NAM being NAM. Brings out the weenie in all of us.

These seem aggressive. Over 2 days maybe...I guess.

4" Probabilities Days 2, 3 Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in again!

Day 2, 8" Probabilities...surpsingly Boolish for CNY.

I'm thinking ratios are 10:1 in general but yeah...accumulating depth is hard with a slow feed over days, and road impacts are lessened at this point cuz... March Sun!

12Z NAM spits out 0.99” LE at KSYR between hours 48 - 84. KROC 0.55 and KALB 0.59”... GFS is 0.78” KSYR 0.69” KROC, 0.80” KALB...light accum after hr 84 at SYR and ROC. Not wildly different...

Next week's GFS looks like a nearly carbon copy track south of NE. I thought my cache needed to be refreshed for a moment looking at surface panels. Hard to believe.

4.5" new snow overnight...almost exactly 10:1 ratio. KBGM forecast spot on. Well done.

KSYR not missing much on armory square...more later.

Huge flakes, mountainous waves here in Cuse!