Syrmax

Well, KBGM's low end forecast is looking better and better. Maybe time to Take 'em Down come morning package.

There's still thermal and possible dryslot issues for SNE on this one esp along i95 to i84 corridor but they won't be shutout like last friday, other than the Cape to SE CT. Even BOS proper may scrape out a few slushy inches. Will be interesting to see Euro qpf. I assume its going to stay east somewhere out past the benchmark where it usually is. Question will be it's intensity as NWP trend is generally a bit weaker.

Yeah...true. If Euro follows suit with track and qpf...this one is in jeopardy of being a sub or marginal warning event for a lot of the Warning area in NY.

00Z GFS...wow. It’s east and qpf really scaled back. My forecast is toast.

My ne.wx forecast entries. I think I went too high at PHL and BWI but other than that I'm reasonably confident. Total thru friday... CAR: 8.5 BGR: 11.0 PWM: 12.3 CON: 14 BTV: 7.1 BOS: 3 HYA: 1.3 ORH: 12.1 PVD: 4.0 BDR: 9.5 BDL: 9.8 ALB: 13.3 BGM: 6.5 ISP: 5 JFK: 7.8 ABE: 12.5 MDT: 5.5 PHL: 9.5 ACY: 0.8 EWR: 8.5 BWI: 3.5 IAD: 0 DCA: 0 SBY: 0 RIC: 0 ORF: 0 RDU: 0 bonus: SYR 5.1

Wow, NAM quite the dud, esp up here. In general it’s cut back qpf.

Real wet snow here...avg flake size. Ground wet but temp is 35 so...this isnt gonna accumulate much...

00Z NAM has shifted track east a bit. Takes slp from ACY to over ACK/MVY. Interesting! Not good but there it is. We toss! LOL,

Wow. Thanks! 00Z NAM running. The most important run of our lives...this week.

How did you come up with that analog? Just curious. It does look pretty similar to this one. Especially the dryslot in CT river valley.

Thanks, was just gonna post some of that! Look at Day 3! Still going...

Tremendous discussion, quite informative. KBGM a touch nervous about western extent of heavier snowfall and unless 00Z shifts east, they are quite right about that uncertainty, IMO.

Let's see what 00Z NAM spits out...

For once I'm liking a KBUF snow map. Thru Friday eve that looks reasonable.

Imagine down near NYC or SNE...based on snippets of radio talk...everyone thinks they're getting a foot or more. Could also be 4" than slop and dryslot..

That seems low but if his period is Wednesday only...then maybe.

KSYR Pretty much spot on average seasonal snowfall now so everything from here goes into the plus column.

It ticked west a bit at 12z but whether its a bona fide trend hard to say with one data point...but it matches all other NWP moves so its part of an overall trend... KBGM seems to be downplaying the wraparound but they are probably focusing on the main heaviest impact part of the storm for now.

E-PA also, they seem to somehow miss or underperform a lot for some reason. Maybe bad luck. 00Z gonna be Yuge run as new data fully ingested in models. After that its near Nowcasting time...The trend has been West since 06Z today. We'll see if its been a head fake, or not.

That's an incorrect read. It's caving to Euro, big move east. A little birdie told me that. For fun, look the 3km NAM. This is exactly what I've been suspecting would happen w/ precip shield being thrown more NW even with slp in relatively similar position to last couple runs.

18Z NAM no major changes from 12Z. If anything it closes off a touch earlier...SLP and thermal profile almost on top of the 12Z. Gotta say, there are people seeing things on the 18z NAM that just don't exist. Also a lot of chatter that NAM will "cave" to Euro's slightly SE track and colder thermal profile eventually (now by 00Z or 06Z or maybe by this weekend). What would concern me about that idea is one look at the Euro at H72. Completely on its own with a 993 mb low well out at sea.

Certain other forums may disagree, and I get that last minute east jigs in slp tracks frequently occur on NWP, but given the blocking and H500 fujiwara projected to occur, I think the bigger risk is a further NW track as this thing slipping out underneath seems unlikely given the projected capture dynamics in play.

Agree on precip shield. Some storms have really sharp cutoffs due to their structure but this doesn't appear to be one of them. So, some uncertainty how far NW the precip shield gets thrown. Models frequently underdo this. Unless there are big changes at 00Z (or real time), I suspect we will have SN- from the true synoptic part in conjunction with interaction with the primary low...with heavier bands making it as far west as UCA-BGM. How KBGM deals with the long duration of SN- will be interesting. I don't think we will see Warning criteria here (7"+ in ~12 hrs?) but several 6 hr periods of 1/2"/hr snowfall seems pretty likely thru Sat.

Euro at 72h looks goofy. Thru 48 its a touch west of 0Z as far as i can tell. Its reasonably in line with 0Z and the 12z US model ideas. Appears to keep slp track a touch SE of GFS/NAM which doesn't really impact us, more of an issue for SNE. So you can guess which models were tossed by the intelligensia elsewhere. Not sure on its qpf distribution. 00Z gonna be pretty interesting. Also...next weeks storm pretty much suppressed and almost vaporized by EC and GFS...So hasta la vista to that one. EC shoves plenty of cold air south tho...maybe late season LES.

Very interested in 12z Euro. Although in reality, tonight's 00z will be more of the tell as to wether the more tucked in scenarios are valid or noise. Regardless, looks like some decent wraparound that is lake enhanced. I'm not sure that 12z verbatim would warrant expanding the watch west...if 00z is similar then maybe. I see advisory for us due to more prolonged nature of the event as best hit still looks to be E and SE of us. How the fujiwara-like interaction at 500mb plays out is going to be a key.