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Sey-Mour Snow

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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow

  1. Sey-Mour Snow
    True and every single person on here knew it was 100% wrong. It was late picking it up, in fact it didn’t pick it up until euro let it go lol.. Sad performance by gfs.
  2. Sey-Mour Snow
    Seems like guidance is coming into agreement on some snow making it into SW areas Friday PM into Saturday AM with temps just cold enough and the bulk of it coming after sunset. Some areas may be able to sneak in an advisory snowfall. Something to track until Monday...
  3. Sey-Mour Snow
    Makes sense. I’ll start a new one. Good calls as always Tip with this thread.
  4. Sey-Mour Snow
    Fixed your post.
  5. Sey-Mour Snow
    @ORH_wxman can we change this thread to Friday PM into Saturday snow threat for SW zones? Mostly to avoid confusion between the two threats.
  6. Sey-Mour Snow
    EPS has some big hits for everyone .. about 2" for SWCT on the mean for the weekend the rest is Monday Tuesday..
  7. Sey-Mour Snow
    We are now getting within day 5 on todays runs with starting impacts and redevelopment off the coast.. Storm likely somewhere.. Hopefully we can start zoning in on a general idea over the next 24 hours of runs..
  8. Sey-Mour Snow
    1-2” of that is from Saturday in SNE. Here is just next week. Solid look , more mixing potential south.
  9. Sey-Mour Snow
    I personally enjoy when you start a thread. Especially when you get excited for an index scale event. There’s usually a major storm that forms, can’t help it if we don’t get the heavy snow axis from that far in advance. It’s worth the track!
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    Ya just drastically different from last run.
  11. Sey-Mour Snow
    Not even a storm on GFS for next week lol .. the trend of the year one model is in and the other isn't , then when the other model jumps on board, the model that had it all along jumps off ship and ends up being exactly right that run..
  12. Sey-Mour Snow
    Agree for the Monday threat it’s now 3 runs in a row check out this control run lol @RUNNAWAYICEBERG special
  13. Sey-Mour Snow
    Correct it showed a massive hit for 1 run. But still solid for 3-4 runs. Let’s see just give us one storm and end this winter.
  14. Sey-Mour Snow
    As you can see here Peak PNA has been waffling on eps and generally trending later. As of last Thursday Friday PNA ridge was supposed to peak this coming weekend. . So hopefully the ridge doesn’t get that can kicked again.
  15. Sey-Mour Snow
    EPS showed the same thing for Saturday 2 days ago! All I’m saying is that we need multiple runs from multiple models to be in before I believe it.
  16. Sey-Mour Snow
    We aren’t done yet though. This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction.
  17. Sey-Mour Snow
    What I’m saying is that we said this same exact thing for this Saturday coming up and now look at it. It was just as good a signal as Monday and Tuesday now is. A few of the great signals has had some sort of transient PNA ridge that turned out to be a fluke.
  18. Sey-Mour Snow
    Ya I get it. We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal now look at it. Storm very likely yes? Yes precip type will be a concern. Also track does it end up congrats Delmarva , congrats SNE or NNE? Also the tendency has been to weaken the signal on approach.
  19. Sey-Mour Snow
    ZERO continuity with ensembles or op runs.. We will know more by Monday (sarcasm).. There's no reason to take any model seriously until all models have the same idea for at least 2 runs in a row..
  20. Sey-Mour Snow
    I wouldn’t feel good anywhere with zero model continuity.
  21. Sey-Mour Snow
    No sorry that was the 50th percentile and the mean each for 12z. The 50th percentile at 12z is much less than the mean, meaning that there are some snowy outliers skewing the mean.
  22. Sey-Mour Snow
    Here’s 00z
  23. Sey-Mour Snow
    Mean is way down from 00z.. gfs last to the party again.
  24. Sey-Mour Snow
    I’ll pass on the shaking hands but sure let’s move it east a bit ..
  25. Sey-Mour Snow
    I've been noticing that, annoyingly weird seems like most of the lows the models are spinning up are like that .
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