Sey-Mour Snow

Seems like a great map to me based on the enormous uncertainty. I almost feel like anyone that doesn’t get in the “heavy banding ” during the daylight hours Tuesday won’t get much so it’s like 6-12”+ or just white rain ..

Obviously that and the 3km nam are the hopes. I hope the snowier solutions are right but plenty of concern for much of CT and plenty of models that completely shut us out. Even that euro run has a SWCT legit snow hole because the IVT takes the initial heavy precip as rain and moves it west into NY then the main storm bands and ccb reorganize over ENE. That’s one concern showing up on multiple pieces of guidance , gfs is the same but the main ccb reorganizes over mass state lines lol Other concern is if we do get settled into the 1-3/3-6” range will it snow heavy enough to actually accumulate ?

Yup , once the models converge on a solution this close in they don’t back off..

Nauseating trends since 18z started. Off to bed soon.. fantastic way to end 22/23 winter. Verbatim that’s 0.0” for all of southern CT. I’m not using 10:1 Kuchera is the way to go in this set up for the snow cut off..

Don’t know if it was posted, if any CT weenies need some of Tips d-drip just look at the 3km nam. I’ll be able to go right to bed after that.

No doubt . And us 3 are pretty far south. I’m about half way in between Merrit and and 84, 8 miles away from each. 4 seasons is right on Merritt.

Just setting ourselves up for the eventual failure.

Looks like I’m going to have to bring some snacks and watch some real snow … just going to miss Tuesday here I think.

Ya I wrote that in my blog and it really sucks, but it fits the tenor of the season to expect less for SNE. JDJ expects 0.0” as of now for our area. Hopefully the next few runs changes our minds.

Thanks, didn't think it through and figured I'd just ask. Thought it was a valid question for a second..

So does this mean the snow will melt quicker since the sun is out later?

ya best EPS run yet for much of CT by far..

Road Trip to @FXWX 's house!

00z Sunday is tonight lol ... Honestly we aren't going to be very confident with this until 18z Monday, and borderline areas will be a game time decision .. Have about 8 cycles to go until we know where general jacks will be.

EURO .. Low in Albany CT and the BM .. nice

GEFS finally really on board for western CT. an absolute crushing 10" mean with pretty high odds for 12"+

ya canadian snow line rides 95.. almost nothing south and east to 15-25" just north or west... hoping my 12 miles is enough .. but again these models are jumping so much still, snow lines won't be know until Monday AM (hopefully)

BDR would get accumulating snow verbatim gfs... looks like 3-6 / 4-8" down to the water using some meteorology lol because the 8-16" on snow maps aint happening .. but again these runs are moving a lot.. we aren't going to know for the borderline areas until go time.. or we get a few runs of consistency..

I like it

If we get 6”+ of absolute paste the rates will be epic .. some guidance is Nemo like .. obviously accumulations won’t be insane like that but for me a day time extremely heavy snow that sticks to everything would be a truly awesome experience.

925s are torched for many . Def take the lower end for many verbatim on that run .. looks like a change over after 8am Tuesday around here.

Upon closer inspection 1” on cold surfaces. Heavy rates never materialized everything stayed south. Meh

Looks like this will be a bust. Heavy snow reorganizing over nyc metro, that was supposed to give us a nice burst between now and 9am. 2-3” of slush on cold surfaces here. 32.5