Mixing is a given up to 84 with dryslot.. We should thump 7pm to 1am then freezing drizzle and pellets then we will see if about on and off periods of snow tomorrow, obviously NE CT favored for that..
Those pretty color warmer anomalies for today that you were forecasting last weekend "will not allow snow idea" is completely wrong so you had to find the prettiest colors you could find .. makes sense
YA as of now I'm not believing it at all with 95% of other guidance having a great thump.. Now if the hi-res stuff coming out between 8:30-9:30 lose the thump then sure time to worry.
Guidance really varies with start time.. I’d wait til after 00z .. hrrr coming in much slower with thump , euro is the slowest amongst guidance, also these come in earlier usually.. hrrr back a bit SE after being a NW outlier
Its also two months later now in much better climo so competing factors. This airmass isn’t horrible. SSTs are about 5-10 degrees cooler than mid November.
This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare.
Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet.
For as far west and warm as hrrr is would still get 6- 10 here and be a pretty epic Saturday evening I’m down for that! Also instead of the heaviest snow while we are sleeping it’s now from 5pm to 11pm.
Lol ya I mean to the average person (not us) those snow depth maps are pretty accurate bc they don’t measure until like hour 12+ probably. But for us the reality probably falls in between the snow depth map and a Kuchera and even 10:1 sometimes, every event is different.
Positive depth chart means nothing to me unless you are 33/34 degrees during daylight and or horrible growth . Take the risk for the real snow and stay in CT.