Sey-Mour Snow

ya ok , I think Kevin and then Ray were talking about Sunday night in Kevins post that you responded to

You talking about tomorrow night? I wouldn’t say Sunday night into next Monday is pike north or 1-2 spot 3 at this moment. All guidance is a miss south of us except euro ..

Just some perspective here on how horrible last January was even compared to this one down here which is below normal snow wise.. January 2023 - 0.9" snow 38.7 average temp - 8 days below 40 for a high and the lowest max was 33.8 Through Jan 21, 2024 - 5.9" of snow .. 29.5 average temp - 11 days below 40 out of 21 .. 7 days below 30 for a high

That's Friday's verification compared to Friday's forecast.. Forecast for tomorrow is Coating to 1"

Ya Euro is locked in on low to mid 60s.. GFS and Canadian still keep us in 30s to near 40. But they have it warmer near 50 on Saturday

I’ll be ready for some yard work Friday!

2nd run in a row showing this

1-2” from 84 to the Pike. Not much precip to work with

Back to current affairs. Euro is a bit more enthused with next Sunday/Monday threat.. Gfs was a bit too far south.. Not a bad spot to be 7.5 days out.. Looks like a thread the needle as cold air will be an issue.. Also guidance has trended a bit too far east with the eastern trough for the Jan 30/31 threat. Let's see if that can move back west with time..

GEFS still like the general 3-4 day window of the 27th-31st for storminess and snow threats. With what would be 2 threats one the 27-28 and another the 30-31st .. Nothing before or after that window for SNE , With CNE and NNE having some opportunity this coming week..

It can still trend colder next week and not snow here .. Trends aren't your friend .. Pike north is in the game, not us.. Focus on the last 3-4 days of January.

Fixed it for you

Ya I'm over next week ( you have a better shot than I do for a sloppy few inches) , my interest is in next weekend into the 30th-31st could be 2 threats in there .. PNA spike plus some Arctic highs moving into favorable spots for us ..

GFS and Canadian both colder on next weekends system .. That has potential to trend colder as well as we get that quick PNA ridge between the 29th and 31st

Exactly

It's going to be a last minute thing, can we get the high to tick better and thus colder.. Right now the area from 84 to the pike is has the most at stake could be a few inches of snow then a glaze over to drizzle.. Any trends weaker and east with the high would mean mostly rain .. If we can get that high stronger and more west then more are in the game for 3-6" then a glaze.. CNE is best in this set-up, my gut is that the high trends east and weaker with time .. EPS is most bullish on a few inches for you .. GEFS and GEPS are mostly rain to the pike.. The waves after that look like mostly rain as well for most of us .. Then we await Jan 30th

Man if we don't have that system to track on the 30th ... This forum will be the worst we have ever seen heading into February looking at the 11-15 lol .. EPS isn't as bad but just an epic torch with no end in sight on GEFS and GEPS

Already a few members with lows in the vicinity of the benchmark for 10 days out there would be more but there's timing differences obviously .. That signal has pretty much been there since day 15 ..

18-19 started the rat stretch.. we had a fluke night march storm to get us out of the teens that year for snowfall. Then 20/21 had the 3 week epic 40” Feb stretch for that winter .. other than that non stop rat winters since 18/19 .. this will be 5/6 well below average for me since building my new house which was a snow jinx

3rd biggest snowfall of the season today at .7” will look like deep winter for 7 days at least.. 5.4” on the season .. 1” ahead of last years pace at this time - last year didn’t pass 5” until Feb 28th .. now we await the January thaw to end somewhere around Feb 7-11 based on long range ensembles and weeklies. I remain naively optimistic that we can thread the proverbial needle a few times before then.. why not

Verbatim it would be several inches in S CT extended out to 60 hours , but it's the HRRR at 48 hours at happy hour so it is what it is..

I've never seen 25" fall from a storm.. Most is 18-20" quite a few times. Unfortunately I was working in Norwalk for every flake of Nemo in Feb '13 when my area had 40" ...

The southern CT snow hole has taken the place of the RI snow hole of the past .. You hate to see it, but it's real..

1050 MB over Montreal on GFS .. Euro 1035 and slides east a bit .. just need to get some overrunning

Cold high still there