Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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18z a bit better for sure with the front end thump for SNE -
HRRR will either score a coup or just be horribly wrong .. it’s pounding isothermal snow here by hour 10-12
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Yes for start time. If HRRR holds serve at 00z and NAMs and Rgems cool again and have thump.. Then ya its go time for the hills especially. On a side note it's so hard to do an elevation map for your area.. So even though you are on the 1-3 line, I really think you are more like 3-6" with that thump plus the Sunday night snow..
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GFS and Reggie did trend better with thump. Really a nowcast for CT. Especially the elevations .
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Just adjusted it north. But it’s a zero confidence forecast. If we get some more shuffles and a trend that’s our friend then I’ll adjust south.
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If it was 2 degrees colder man…. Some nearby towns have 800-1000’ elevations I wonder if they can sneak out a miracle.
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That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done
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Strong thump … of rain? Nowcast IMO I could see 0/3/6 in your area. Would give 33% chance of each verifying.
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Fixed it for you lol .. this is just a nowcast for everyone, every piece of guidance is different with every aspect of this storm..
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Nam with a good nod towards the thump idea..
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Weird that hrrr and gfs Continue to be so cold and thumpy. Hrrr hits nyc metro hard lol
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For the CT folks especially southern half. I think most of the Sunday snow depends on the intensity of this band and the thump. All of the snowier guidance is mostly from this band dynamically cooling the column to potentially produce accumulating snow. Without that I think it’s just a rain/white rain mix.
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Shows up on the totals and hour panels. When you look at ptype map it almost looks like it’s showing up as mixed banding, with such borderline profiles the model qpf output doesn’t know what to do in this situation?
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I’m 15 miles from the shore with 600’ elevation. Average between 40-50” based on Uptons climo maps. The extra 10” comes from my elevation. At my location 2000-2020 I averaged 55” during the weenie times. But the past 6 years my seasonal average is a meager 30” ..
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Benchmark track check/cold high coming down from Canada check/1.5” qpf check/ RAIN check
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HRRR in weenie range is cold where it thumps , but it’s an extreme outlier as of now
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Hell of a way to run a Nationwide torch
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they don't even have a forecast up yet, just a chance of plowable snow map away from shore..
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ya the steady precip just struggles to make it much north of there ..
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thats not a dryslot , its the northern extent of the precip shield , dryslot is when the wcb moves through and precip shuts off .. low snow totals are bc its warm ..
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It's consistently been warm cant ignore it its a few inches of snow for the favored up in areas with a uniform soaking of rain up to 1.5" of rain south of the pike
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no dryslots its just rain lol
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In the last 5 full winter months DJF and DJ.. assuming no snow and 1" more of rain this month.. Just shy of 40" of rain here and 16.4" of snow in the last 5 full winter months
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I have a crazy stat on this.. Tallying it up
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If NAM verified RAY would have to open up a Mental Health clinic for us in the CT crew .. I'd go mental if that verfied .
