Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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American guidance vs the world
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9-12 hours for some with temps 45-55. 84 south and east left with some patches of 1-3" snow pack
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Better High placement which is holding onto the cold solution longer though. By 72 hours out for Tuesdays event we knew my area was all rain or freezing rain. 72 hours out from Thursday still looking good..
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About 10" here left of the 30" in the past 15 days. Its pretty solid though. top 1" is hard ice. with a layer of ice in the middle as well.
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EURO gives a beating to CT's pack, most down to 2-4" patches besides the NW hills..
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NAM says what snow, and v16 isn't too enthused for CT. Right now old gfs is most bullish followed by Euro. Ensembles look great, but we've been there before..
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HREF cut back quite a bit on freezing rain in CT, however it's still .25-.50" with FRAM algorithm with some .5" + pockets.. here is 00z out to 36 compared to 12z
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Hate to see it, but we are onto Thursday down here. Maybe we can lay down some lime in CT into SE MASS Tuesday afternoon?
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00z Hrrrr very far west and warm as well.
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Nothing is ever guaranteed in the weather as I said earlier, this was a delicate setup and not a classic SWFE at all.
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We still get .15 to .30" ice accretion but really have to consider the possibility of a pack eating torch Tuesday AM if those NW tracks come to fruition.
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I'm ready, F this storm.
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10 hours above 45 not too short lol
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50-60 degrees across most of the southern half of southern New England . Might have to replace the winter weather advisories with flash flood watches if the euro is right.
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Instead of Damage in Tolland, it's swimming in Tolland on 18z EURO from coldest model to warmest in one run!!
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18z euro coming in pretty far NW
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Model error it’s always like that, my climo would be 0” per year lol
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It's always 10 days away. Now it's Friday lol can't complain down here though if we get 6" Friday that's 36" of snowfall with 6 different snowfalls and consistent deep pack and also two ice storms with a -3 to -5 departure for the first 18 days of February and temperatures never rising higher than 40.
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For CT euro is some light on and off freezing drizzle Monday then the bulk is 2am Tuesday til 11am Tuesday.
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00z tonight will
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That's not storm total either, still 3-5 hours to go especially in northern CT.
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This is turning into a longer duration event as well. Guidance has this starting on Monday now with light freezing rain.
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No doubt would rather have that just don’t think we have much of a chance at snow and sleet south of the pike, seems like winter is fading fast, as tip said the February sun is getting strong!
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Storm vista always overdone . This seems more accurate in that setup
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we've gotten a half inch of ice accretion in central CT the past two winters, and that does plenty of damage, I don't think anyone in here wants to see 1" of ice even Kevin lol that would be very bad. I think ground zero will be a wide swath of .4 to .6" ice accretion.
