Sey-Mour Snow

9 hours ago, eduggs said:

IMO you are a little loose with your terminology. People get so used to certain phrases that they start taking them for granted. Terms like "nail" and "lock into place" are subjective. The parameters and spatial scale in question as well as your criteria for assessing model accuracy are not clear. Even the term "pattern" is only vaguely defined. It's easy to rationalize having a good handle on something if details and definitions are kept fuzzy.

The magnitude and orientation of 500mb height values at the continental scale are modestly predictable out to about 10 days. But the point I've been trying to make is that regional weather forecasting at and beyond this time frame requires model accuracy that exceeds the current average error. Even if longwave trofs and ridges are roughly predictable, local sensible weather is highly dependent on fine-scale features and evolution that is outside the scope of model skill and only modestly correlated to large-scale features. It's hard enough to see a regional cold snap coming 10 days out. To detect a snowstorm at that range is really hard. And while everybody is looking far into the future for the perfect pattern, a decaying lake effect streamer could drop an inch or two almost without warning.

It's all semantics at this point, it seems like you agree with what we are saying, but are arguing otherwise.  Long story short, long wave patterns are generally forecastable 8-12 days in advance by ensembles.  Whether or not it produces the exact result we want or suspect is a different story.. 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tonight would be light freezing rain if anything even falls. Too warm aloft for flakes 

A light warm drizzle down here very festive 

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z gfs is really cold . Euro just got colder.

It’s actually not cold at all for the New England forum.  Cold anomalies are south. Actually still a bit above normal until the last few weenie days of the run. Weird bc it looks cold at first glance. 

43 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Let's get it solidly inside 7 days before we celebrate. LR ensembles hedge towards climo at the extended ranges. And we've seen hints of this kind of change already this year that did not materialize.

It's actually pretty easy to predict a general 500mb pattern 8-12 days in advance most of the time.. The 12-15 is a bit more suspect but we do nail that well in advance sometimes.. The pattern that will lock into place mid next week for 7+ days was well forecast by ensembles starting at day 13-15 last week... Just because it doesn't snow doesn't mean that the forecasted 500mb pattern was wrong, sometimes we just get unlucky.  In fact many torches are sniffed out well in advance usually by ensembles.. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

19° off of a low of 15° here, but that comes with some wind unlike the rad in SNE. Chilly for 2020s Dewcember standards!

Don't take away our fake cold "it's the only winter we've got"

12/14 and 12/7 BDR was 25 or below. .. BDR dropped below 30 degrees 8 times since November 1.. 

Found a few stations on the water in Branford and they dropped below 30 the past 2 days as well as well below 30 on 12/14 and 12/7 and 6 times in November .. First one being November 2nd.. 

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny, it wasn’t a hit at D10…just a close call…so nothing needs to happen for it to miss. 

Control run is even closer to a bomb on New Years ..Then the Gorilla (Rain this run) on Jan 4th.. Regardless some colder threats showing up for the first time this season.. 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS looks cold enough to me in the long range

One interesting thing I noticed is that the notoriously cold biased GFS is 0 to +1 for a 7 day anomaly at the surface for SNE day 10-16.. However at 850mb its like -5 to -10.. 

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

Not seeing cold air on the long range guidance. Even in the very long range the BN anomalies are confined to the south. NNE is AN. 

Are we in search for cold and dry or snow? 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I guess maybe fantasy storms put weenies in their footie pajamas....until those get taken from them?? I didn't see much wrong on the GFS. Next week probably sucks and has looked that way for awhile.

Pattern looks good, who cares about a jackpot at hour 384.. We wait on the Gorilla and hope for the best.. 

58 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Will it start snowing hr 12?

EDIT GDPS has you pretty icy by hour 170 .. maybe some freezing drizzle for SNE Christmas eve morning

Funny how we feel so defeated with the likelihood of another snowless December for many, yet I just realized it is still Fall for 11 more hours.. 

48 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

FWIW the 6Z GFS looks quite different than the last few runs...

Verbatim no snow but that’s a loaded pattern and cold for a change 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just took a closer look wow pretty weeniesh . Very cold for January and even more February with a more active pattern in January drier in February 

GEFS look better again, some NAO blocking developing as well. 

Jealous haven’t had anything good since 5am here…

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL and HFD both well into the 50’s. IJD 61

No meh 

Best was just before I woke up it seems here.. 

Sun poking out a bit, 3.71" Max gust seemed to be 50-55 in this area, about as expected.. No power outages in my town. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ijd 61. Inland is worst

EDIT that was not updated.. Just rechecked NWS reports many 55-65 in Western CT around 4-5am.. OXC 53mph 66 Stamford Coop.. 56 Meriden Airport

Solid amount of trees and large limbs down.  Had to do a little off-roading to get to gym. 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OXC? 

47

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks for the forecast 

70 GON

66 HVN

54 HFD

59 BDL

 

66 GON

61 HVN 

53 HFD

49 BDL

OXC:DXR : 47

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month

In regards to day 10-15 the GEFS have trended worse for sure over the past 24 hours. While GEPS and EPS look great. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pics?

 That’s all I got..  Idk why I can’t share actual images anymore