Sey-Mour Snow

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

I wouldn't say amazing, I mean, it's only an inch... of snow.

Evidently that’s got nothing on Drake.. 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

GFS is south a bit but still good for the south coast. Seems like a bit of an outlier at the moment. 

Ya that’s a major outlier 1-1.3” liquid south of 84. Cut back northern edge 

Don't know if this was posted..  Yes @qg_omega called it .. 

After an in depth discussion with @Torch Tiger @jbenedet and @qg_omega we decided to lower totals.  "GIDDY UP"

*Disclaimer @The 4 Seasons does not approve of this map. 

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

With the way this is going, just get it the fuck out of here. My daffodils are 3 inches tall and my crocuses are in bloom. Bring on spring.

This reminds me a little of that March '18 storm that was supposed to dump on southern CT, but wound up with a sandy inch while Long Island cleaned up 2 feet.

has anyone else seen a bunch of large flys the past two days? I've had three in two different indoor locations? The low 60s Saturday woke them up?

Parts of CT and Mass were well within the 12-18" cone at 18 hours out to potentially see zero inches of snow.  @ORH_wxman how many times has that happened this close in?

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

 

 

 

Best part is I may owe @qg_omega $25 while he's sitting there smiling when no one sees 3" tomorrow 

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup... HRRR looks worse. Blahh.

The rug has been pulled out for most! 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so worn out and defeated....so sick of it all. Gonna have to think long and hard about whether I even want to do this next year.

Been thinking the same thing all day

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

My first winter storm warning since 2022.

4-8 inches 

Really hope you do well

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

almost every model was in agreement last evening-that's 36 hrs out....

All but UKMET

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon

I'm stating the obvious here, not going out on a limb.. It's not a forecast I said if it ticks like that again .. 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will be fine. Christ you were worried yesterday about being it too far North 

Might want to take off the weenie goggles.. You need a new prescription ..

As expected the HRRR went well south east about 50 miles with the accumulating snow.. Still hits the south shore hard but one more shift like that and its game over for everyone.. 

HRRR coming in much less amped compared to 12z.. Will still be a hit for some, but if you continue that trend one more time for 00z its a shut out for all of SNE.. Also as many as said a light to moderate event wont accumulate with this crap air mass.  Lost for words right now .. 

1 hour ago, joey2002 said:

BOX isn’t buying the trend apparently or they’re just going with the HREF 
 

Rolling with the 700mb goodies but the cutoff will be sharper than that 

lol what the hell is going on? From a rt 2 jack to MJO jack in 18 hours on day 2!  Congrats to MJO for joining the party let’s hope it stops trending south this is absolutely wild! 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting developments. Okc has a big decision to make tomorrow morning for their coverage area. 

NYC metro is a nightmare forecast 0 or 12” in spots with urban heat effect 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Kuchie is absolutely more appropriate near the northern edge under H7 banding....to the south and near the coast, I agree.

Kuchie will be less than 10:1 in rain/snow situations .. 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Less convection helping out ?

Could be a reason for lower heights on east coast . Earthlight mentioned it earlier and now I’m seeing how the tornado outbreak is busting 

Wild the run to run differences on eps is the timing slowed down a lot for 36 hours out. The colder trends coincide with the slower trends. Also the warm front and tornado outbreak being shunted south today helping us out? 

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not so sure the difference is north/south as much as it is structural/evolution differences. It's easy to say there is a shift just comparing the snow maps (which is awful) and QPF maps, but there may be much more it to than just shifting. 

Ya it’s colder and slower that’s it 

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Are Sey-Mour and Luke finally putting away their toasters? PTSD boys

We replaced toasters with smiles 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Forecast 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/02/tuesday-february-13-2024-winter-storm.html

Nicely done 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No, I think the people are focusing on details that are a little bit below expectation for what the guides are capable of doing - because they need to get the snow into their backyard very small movement seem very much bigger than they really are.

If we step back and look at it from a bigger, synoptic overview? Theres a decent short duration impactor that’s higher confidence - the changes are not significant to warrant whether that’s going to be the case or not

True so the smaller synoptic changes in the icon at a glance normally wouldn’t warrant the shift we are seeing in terms of precip and snowfall output you are saying?