Sey-Mour Snow

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where is Scooter’s gorilla? 

That was the Jan 4 through 6 threat she gone . Guess it’s time to change my profile image 

Today’s GFS next 15 days .. 40s to near 50 everyday in CT except one. Lows barely below freezing that’s hardly a pattern change from most of December.  We haven’t had a high below 32 since February 28th.. Average high at bdl is 37

7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking?

Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva.

It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland.

Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples.

I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).


 

Yes it does. Many are jaded from recent failures, GEFS not as good, and also that pattern can easily be great for the distant interior and bad for many on this subforum, time will tell. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

We are in major need for a D-drip. And the only fix is a legit storm to track. 

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

I get it, the op models are disheartening plus these mild temps for the foreseeable future suck.  Also having absolutely nothing to track, I have zero hope for any threats in the next 10 days. 
 

Just have to flip this pattern completely and get rid of the mild pac air. Even though we technically start a new regime to end this week it sure seems as if it is morphing from a potentially favorable “better” pattern to more of the same BS. 
 

We just have to keep in mind it’s December 27th. I am excited to see what the -NAO and some true cold air eventually being available can do for us. 

This is a pattern that definitely favors up and in at first.. GEFS and EPS are very tasty in the individual members for most of New England and the Northeast with interior favored for now with many big hitters . 

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Any maps to show the possibilities. That's all we have at this moment lol.

Trying to keep the hope alive

I can’t post maps anymore it always says file too big  

EPS nice in long range, many members have monster snowstorms in that Jan 6-8 range 

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe I'm stretching here, but you're not going to be 45 to 50 after this Thursday. Friday, Saturday supposed to be a bit chilly, but for next week where you are, you're probably going to be in the load of mid 40s at the most for all of next week. Not 45 to 50. But it still doesn't get us any snow lol so it doesn't matter much I guess

Just taking GFS verbatim its highs in the 40s 12 of the next 15 days with 3 days in upper 30s. 

Surprising how we are still so torched post this coming weekend with the pattern change.  Just no cold air to work with GFS is still +5 to +15 for the weekend and much of next week.  Highs 45-50 still in these parts with lows around freezing. 

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest bias has been speed…models have been wayyyy to slow with the MJO propagation. They were trying to stall it in phase 7 for a week-plus like 10 days ago and then less than 3 days later it was already out of phase 7 and right now we’re already in phase 1. 

Ensembles long range overnight really hitting that monster -nao hard also a lot less -pna

31 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Blocking further south now, not the same.  Further south blocking has become a winter staple

The blocking is literally in the same exact spot as that weeklies map 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Apparently you didn’t look at this then .

 

The weeklies are do or die now? Cheer up buttercup it shows a Building -NAO for mid and late January with a transient -PNA week 3 which has been the thought for quite some time for many, then pretty weeniesh Weeks 4-5 with -epo and -nao 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had a step back today in the good look going forward . Nothing terrible but things started trending back the other way

Just bc nobody posted about it doesn’t mean it’s a step back, geps is cold as hell and gefs improved some and has a great -nao, eps remained steady

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fairly active gfs so far. 

Also first time seeing true Arctic cold modeled in Canada and the Northern US

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

New Year’s miracle? Bump it NW and get some high pressure in SE Canada and that would work. So much energy flying around who knows what will happen. 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS was pretty darned cold for us. Def colder than OP GFS. 
 

Regardless, whenever you see cold anomalies just to our south in that NYC-DCA corridor, that usually means we’re plenty cold enough to snow even if we are near avg or slightly above like on that 06z GFS run. Sitting in that -5 to -8C range of 850 temps. 
 

Hopefully we can actually get one of the shortwaves to pop a nice system for us. The really active look is something I like a lot…it will make model watching relevant since any one of them could show up as a storm all of the sudden when we get closer. 

Ya I’m not saying it’s not cold enough to snow, you’d just think it’s colder at first glance. It’s actually just a seasonable pattern until that real cold push towards the end of weenie range. 

9 hours ago, eduggs said:

IMO you are a little loose with your terminology. People get so used to certain phrases that they start taking them for granted. Terms like "nail" and "lock into place" are subjective. The parameters and spatial scale in question as well as your criteria for assessing model accuracy are not clear. Even the term "pattern" is only vaguely defined. It's easy to rationalize having a good handle on something if details and definitions are kept fuzzy.

The magnitude and orientation of 500mb height values at the continental scale are modestly predictable out to about 10 days. But the point I've been trying to make is that regional weather forecasting at and beyond this time frame requires model accuracy that exceeds the current average error. Even if longwave trofs and ridges are roughly predictable, local sensible weather is highly dependent on fine-scale features and evolution that is outside the scope of model skill and only modestly correlated to large-scale features. It's hard enough to see a regional cold snap coming 10 days out. To detect a snowstorm at that range is really hard. And while everybody is looking far into the future for the perfect pattern, a decaying lake effect streamer could drop an inch or two almost without warning.

It's all semantics at this point, it seems like you agree with what we are saying, but are arguing otherwise.  Long story short, long wave patterns are generally forecastable 8-12 days in advance by ensembles.  Whether or not it produces the exact result we want or suspect is a different story.. 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tonight would be light freezing rain if anything even falls. Too warm aloft for flakes 

A light warm drizzle down here very festive 

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z gfs is really cold . Euro just got colder.

It’s actually not cold at all for the New England forum.  Cold anomalies are south. Actually still a bit above normal until the last few weenie days of the run. Weird bc it looks cold at first glance. 

43 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Let's get it solidly inside 7 days before we celebrate. LR ensembles hedge towards climo at the extended ranges. And we've seen hints of this kind of change already this year that did not materialize.

It's actually pretty easy to predict a general 500mb pattern 8-12 days in advance most of the time.. The 12-15 is a bit more suspect but we do nail that well in advance sometimes.. The pattern that will lock into place mid next week for 7+ days was well forecast by ensembles starting at day 13-15 last week... Just because it doesn't snow doesn't mean that the forecasted 500mb pattern was wrong, sometimes we just get unlucky.  In fact many torches are sniffed out well in advance usually by ensembles.. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

19° off of a low of 15° here, but that comes with some wind unlike the rad in SNE. Chilly for 2020s Dewcember standards!

Don't take away our fake cold "it's the only winter we've got"

12/14 and 12/7 BDR was 25 or below. .. BDR dropped below 30 degrees 8 times since November 1.. 

Found a few stations on the water in Branford and they dropped below 30 the past 2 days as well as well below 30 on 12/14 and 12/7 and 6 times in November .. First one being November 2nd.. 

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny, it wasn’t a hit at D10…just a close call…so nothing needs to happen for it to miss. 

Control run is even closer to a bomb on New Years ..Then the Gorilla (Rain this run) on Jan 4th.. Regardless some colder threats showing up for the first time this season.. 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS looks cold enough to me in the long range

One interesting thing I noticed is that the notoriously cold biased GFS is 0 to +1 for a 7 day anomaly at the surface for SNE day 10-16.. However at 850mb its like -5 to -10..