Sey-Mour Snow

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs qpf?

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

some of the GEFS members start this very early Monday morning

Most guidance does as light rain and snow 

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gfs smokes you

Ya 1.1” qpf verbatim it says half rain . We will see. I’m cautiously optimistic for my location. I’d be doing back flips if it was 2-3 degrees colder on guidance. 

just for shiz and giggles.. 

Trimmed back 1” due to changeover timing uncertainty. 

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean we get that....but it’s like your morbid little kid brother following you around incessantly reminding you of your own mortality, while you're trying to enjoy a nice cookout.

Agree, we all get the thread the needle set up.  Taken from Scott earlier in the season, “ Scott’s post “makes you want get an uzi whenever he posts about this storm”. 

There is a low floor and very high ceiling potential with this bust possible either way after our initial forecasts come out. For now let’s all weenie out with the enormous potential while knowing in the back of our head there is a 30-50% chance the rug can be totally pulled out for most if it hugs and also if the dynamics don’t reach their ceiling considering the borderline temps. 

Very high busy potential each way. I can see 12” or 0” at my house.  Good to see NAMs cooling off they are still warm but def have that dynamical cooling look.

A ton of moisture to deal with .8-1.2” of precip across much of western ct. However the warm temps have me shook a bit . Hopefully we can cash in on at least half of this as accumulating snow. What a waste of half the storm though.  Looks like an impressive band develops after midnight and pivots over us as temps cool enough for all snow everywhere and that’s when we really accumulate between the midnight and 6am timeframe. 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at the individual EPS members, man a lot of those just absolutely smoke the Catskills.

Pretty crazy probs for >24" of snow.

It’s more like 20” + odds with about 4” coming tonight from that map . 
 

check this weenie map out everyone’s  90th percentile outcome lol 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

12km is very warm in the boundary layer. 

Odd considering the extremely heavy rates it’s advertising.

6 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

0z NAM looking a little bit north and juicier

Lol 3km nam is all rain for southern ct and 91 corridor 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The mean looks pretty juicy for CT. 

Looks like 4-8” for interior SNE.. 8-16 as you get NW of 84 .. maxing out in berks on the mean. 

7 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

3-6” of that is from tomorrow night 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't see that trend today, thankfully.

Definitely that trend today. Not in a bad way for you at all though. But the ensembles weren’t really throwing enough precip back here previously as it was bombing too late. The trend today on eps and especially GEFS is to get that ccb down here too finally. 

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Between .35 -50 qpf .  I like my ideas . We’ll see

definitely another uptick at 18z... 2"+ would be more likely if that verified with your elevation..

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can anyone post the qpf maps from 18z GFS and Euro?

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It already has 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have seen these setups a lot in my time here. This likely gets 3” to I90

 

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure why your’re so low here. But good luck on your map . There’s going to be a mid level band north of the main band in your area 

I hope for your sake it bumps north. 

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

How much for BDR? Hopefully they avoid futility.

Coating to 2”

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve got 3-5” E CT and 4-8 “ W CT

I’ve got coating to 2” for you. 2-4” central    4-8” inland SWCT .. 

Snow mean went way up and it’s much snowier south as well. Must be some monster hits for interior SNE.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This will not be 1888 lol.

Lol imagine that 33 and rain to 8 and a white out in a few hours 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good animation Paul....look at that lead shortwave get pretty far east before it gets captured/phased back with the northern stream ULL...that is key to a big hit outside of the Berkshires/highest elevations.

Sorry if this has been answered… whats a good analog for this one with this track and stall and loop..