Sey-Mour Snow

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a JAM.
 

2023 and not one piece of guidance can consistently narrow the goalposts inside at D2. 

This has literally become a pain in the ass.. Not enjoyable at all to forecast this one, I mean accumulating snow starts in 30 hours.. And we have several models showing a monster snowstorm for all of SNE and the GFS and EURO are worlds apart from the other models.  Southern CT is a disaster of a forecast.. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Why was Wiz saying it looked great in CT? 

he didn't look at the temps, its torched.. nothing for 2/3rds of the state.. northern third does well.  Also southern CT gets dryslotted.. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian would be good though for those who are storm starved  in Central in Western Connecticut anyways.

Aw thanks that’s the nicest thing anyone has ever said to us. 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We haven’t changed from our first call the other day but it’s a little concerning the swct 7/10 split the gfs shows and even the euro showed, to a slightly lesser degree.

Agree

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs still sucks for the southern half of CT but it was a better tick.

EMAATT crushed, like clockwork.

If that verifies we are going to a local bridge 

FWIW HRRR would be a crushing for CT, doesn't go out far enough out east.. But probably the same with that look.. But GOD I hate that model.. It's like a bad addiction I can't quit lol 

EDIT massive deform band forms out in EMASS and rotates through for all of us, wow.. what a weenie run.. only half way through the storm lol with 10-20" in all of western CT.. 

***The map posted is what we call the 50th percentile forecast (meaning most guidance and outputs lead to this outcome). Keep in mind it is also very possible with this storm that the 25th percentile verifies (cut these numbers in half) or the 75th percentile verifies (double these numbers)***

Here's what we captioned it with.. Let's see where we go from here.. 

15 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sure anything is possible. 

Lol bastardi at it again! 
 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why wouldn't this be 10 to 1. I see mesos are pretty damn cold above and 33 degree surface is NBD. Nice thunder snow here

Definitely periods of 10-15:1 ratios but also many periods of shit ratios of like 3:1 in between bands.. so who knows what the final outcome is 

Very reasonable outcome.. many would take.. EMASS is looking better and better and would do very well with that run.. 

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Subsidence in Tolland? 

Thats the big worry for CT, caught in between that ENY band and the main coastal.. 6z euro really does that well lol 

Congrats @MJO812 on the euro

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Why are you and ohters using Kuchie maps?  I've never understood their utility.  Thanks.

They are less than 10:1 ratios for borderline situations. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

RGW overnight. Dude pulled an all nighter.

Sleeping on his keyboard as we speak with his internet search showing toasters for sale near me.  

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I didn't really. I think longitude helps some for W CT.

Ya I don’t think elevation helps that much outside of Litchfield hills. It’s more of location. It’s snowing hard right down to the beach in the meat of it.

40 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Here's our forecast. Pretty tough call but this is the best I could manage for the time being lol

 

Seems like a great map to me based on the enormous uncertainty. I almost feel like anyone that doesn’t get in the “heavy banding ” during the daylight hours Tuesday won’t get much so it’s like 6-12”+ or just white rain ..

56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yo you sure? We take um up

Obviously that and the 3km nam are the hopes.  I hope the snowier solutions are right but plenty of concern for much of CT and plenty of models that completely shut us out. Even that euro run has a SWCT legit snow hole because the IVT takes the initial heavy precip as rain and moves it west into NY then the main storm bands and ccb reorganize over ENE. 

That’s one concern showing up on multiple pieces of guidance , gfs is the same but the main ccb reorganizes over mass state lines lol 

Other concern is if we do get settled into the 1-3/3-6” range will it snow heavy enough to actually accumulate ?

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Unless the ULL digs further SE, we’ll get the 7/10 split between invt being nw and  n of us then it pivots there as the main low gets yanked back. Basically a non event after the rains here. 

Yup , once the models converge on a solution this close in they don’t back off.. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats EMA.

Nauseating trends since 18z started. Off to bed soon.. fantastic way to end 22/23 winter. Verbatim that’s 0.0” for all of southern CT. I’m not using 10:1 Kuchera is the way to go in this set up for the snow cut off.. 

Don’t know if it was posted, if any CT weenies need some of Tips d-drip just look at the 3km nam. I’ll be able to go right to bed after that. 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There could be a sharp gradient from Merritt to 84, and 84 on north.

No doubt . And us 3 are pretty far south. I’m about half way in between Merrit and and 84, 8 miles away from each. 4 seasons is right on Merritt. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re gonna see-no snow? I don’t believe it.

Just setting ourselves up for the eventual failure. 

9 hours ago, FXWX said:

Watching what today's 3 inch wet snowfall looked like on the trees in my area, if the modeling works out next Tuesday big big power issues!!!!

Looks like I’m going to have to bring some snacks and watch some real snow … just going to miss Tuesday here I think. 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The temps are annoying in general with this system, which ups the ante.  Naturally you have to favor the elevations.  It’ll snow anywhere the lift is strong enough, but the moisture in this system would hit HECS easily with a colder/fresher air mass.  I’ve gotten stuck on imagining looking at these runs with widespread temps in the 20s, not low to mid-30s.

Ya I wrote that in my blog and it really sucks, but it fits the tenor of the season to expect less for SNE.  JDJ expects 0.0” as of now for our area. Hopefully the next few runs changes our minds.