Sey-Mour Snow

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Once the (initialization) on guidance digests the developing +NAO the marginal areas east of the CT river will be cooked.

The bulk of the surface cold is to our west; not to our north, which naturally means a "backing" west occlusion. So once the UL confluence ebbs it will be "not even close" for us eastern folks.

Good storm for the berks, Greens, and upstate NY though.

Love that +NAO at -1.5SD

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Not me.  My Fairfield County Crusher definitely did not crush me.

Ya jinxed it! I don’t think anyone in Fairfield county saw more than 2” besides one 3.3” report on the Litchfield county border 

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Unless we see some changes, I see nothing exciting through Christmas for most of SNE, especially east. 
 

More than likely year 13 in a row without a white Christmas here 

Lol … yes most guidance have some cittters but we have 2 more chances after Friday for snow. Next mid next week then just before Christmas. I’m 100% sure all 3 storms aren’t locked in on tracks and results and upper air pattern will be increasingly more favorable as we approach Christmas and after with plenty of cold over or near us. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see today. ORH to your hood really just needs one more tick and it’s prob a decent event. I think the really high end outcomes for SNE are probably out because we don’t have the block to the north linking up with the western ridge in Canada which helped shove the whole ULL under us…but if we elongate the ULL and force the midlevels more over the cape, then interior SNE can have a solid event, even if it taints a bit. 

A net gainer of 3-6”+ would be lovely . My longitude may help back here… 

3.0”

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Srn CT may get a boost soon. Worth watching that inflow off LI sound.

Been coming down nicely for an hour over an inch easily. 

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried to tell em. Your buddy from E HA said he wanted to go warning  level , but you insisted on flurries to 3”

Problem is it won’t be widespread.  Most people that follow us live on shore so we always stay conservative for them. New map is 4-6” hills 2-4” elsewhere and 1-2” shore. 

All 18z guidance beefed up pretty nicely. There should definitely be a solid band of several inches. I’d favor Litchfield and Hartford counties for that. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man a solid 6-12” coming tomorrow night 

6-12 beers at the GTG

Follow up wave next Saturday too, showed that at 12z

ends up LBSW... Just some light to moderate snow in southern CT.. 

GFS looks amazing at surface through 135.... Heavy snow in CT low bombing and scooting east off Atlantic City

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

My local cable news said mixed precip coating to 1

 

They are based out of NJ and will always be conservative.  While a coating to an inch is the most likely outcome for the shore.  Parts of Easton (especially the hills) may definitely see 3"+ depending on how the banding sets up.. 

3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

18z NAM 

 

We were bound to get nam’d 

and then theres this threat .....  24-36 hours of 55-95 mph gusts for the cape yikes... 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Well.... which is it?

12 or 24 -

cuz 12 sucks donkey ballz.  24's awesome

hahaha j/k

EURO is 12-24" over a good part of interior SNE destroys Kevin to Ray

Gets to CNJ then pushes back ESE and stalls at BM in the 970s while it crushed interior SNE... wow 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I never know around here lol. 
I’d put some lollies in.

ya a loly over Seymour 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the box map for MA but I think it’s way too light in southern half of CT. Not that they focus strongly on that area as most of it is outside their CWA…is OKX going that low down there? I get temps are kind of marginal on the coast but just inland it should be plenty cold enough. 

Ya they will bust low there’s a lot of elevation just inland a few miles. The valleys on the shore will struggle to accumulate though unless we get heavy rates like hrrr shows. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Is that sarcastic?  

He’s saying you agree with his map

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Norlun west on this run

It’s about 25 miles NE of 18z

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No it is not. I would bet you if you went back let’s say 50 or 100 years… at least half if not more Dec 1-15 periods dropped accumulating snow over interior SNE. Flakes in the air is not a win . Not close 

ORH: 12/1 - 12/15 last 22 First half of Decembers

2000 - 4.7" / 2001 - 9.0" / 2002 - 11.8" / 2003 - 21.5" / 2004 - .3" / 2005 - 15.9" / 2006 - .4" / 2007 - 12.3" / 2008 - .6" / 2009 - 11.2" / 2010 - 0.00" / 2011 - .3" / 2012 - .8" / 2013 - 11.5" / 2014 - 1.3" / 2015 - 0.00" / 2016 - 5.2"  / 2017 - 7.7" / 2018 - 0.00" / 2019 - 23.1" / 2020 - 9.6" / 2021 - 1.3" 

8 of last 22 Decembers under 1" at ORH - for Dec 1-15

Average Dec 1 -15: 6.75" 

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It still is the GFS op with little GEFS support.  That being said .. it’s not the old GFS and it now is at least capable of sniffing something out. The GGEM sniffed out Sunday Night/ Monday snow evevt . So things can sometimes sniff

No beer?

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Norluns love to creep Northeast in guidance as you get closer in. Creeping , tiptoeing NE

Let’s get it from Seymour to Tolland.