Sey-Mour Snow

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Between .35 -50 qpf .  I like my ideas . We’ll see

definitely another uptick at 18z... 2"+ would be more likely if that verified with your elevation..

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can anyone post the qpf maps from 18z GFS and Euro?

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It already has 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have seen these setups a lot in my time here. This likely gets 3” to I90

 

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure why your’re so low here. But good luck on your map . There’s going to be a mid level band north of the main band in your area 

I hope for your sake it bumps north. 

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

How much for BDR? Hopefully they avoid futility.

Coating to 2”

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve got 3-5” E CT and 4-8 “ W CT

I’ve got coating to 2” for you. 2-4” central    4-8” inland SWCT .. 

Snow mean went way up and it’s much snowier south as well. Must be some monster hits for interior SNE.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This will not be 1888 lol.

Lol imagine that 33 and rain to 8 and a white out in a few hours 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good animation Paul....look at that lead shortwave get pretty far east before it gets captured/phased back with the northern stream ULL...that is key to a big hit outside of the Berkshires/highest elevations.

Sorry if this has been answered… whats a good analog for this one with this track and stall and loop..

5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I would not yet try to bullseye the most worrisome zone, but that euro depiction screams a zone of significant tree damage could be in play wherever the real paste job sets up.  Could be more than just a small localized area???

Tress may be compromised out west if tomorrow night verifies on the higher end. 

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Does the system loop twice???

Verbatim yes

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah—really need this to crank to not lose so much qpf. 

If this was 12 hours later we’d lose 75% of it to melting. Hopefully we only lose 10-25% in this case.  Would be a colossal waste of what could have been a lucky event. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a nice hit SW CT and decent even to Kevin.

That’s a lot of qpf

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro juiced up again....large area of >0.50" QPF in CT.

Looks close for accumulation so borderline. I’d assume surface would be colder than 34 that guidance is showing with those heavy rates. 

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS gone wild for CT

LFG!

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's like -1C at 925...it's gonna be pretty pasty.

Lol beat me to it by a second.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see this as being pasty. These fast moving clippers are typically powdery. It’s quite cold aloft . Should be fairly high ratio 

925 pretty warm looks like minus 1 to minus 2.. also surface temps will be 31-33 during with plenty of melting during the first few hours. This will 100% be paste sticking to everything. 2 inch over under of paste on my driveway at Sey-Mour Snow for a 6 pack of IPA’s for the winner? I take the over. 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s probably anecdotal but the off hour euro/eps is a tick less trustworthy to this weenie. 

I agree. Although last nights 18z run scored a major win with the SWCT snow threat tomorrow night . So hopefully it’s onto something with storm # 2.

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think Danbury to Litchfield to Waterbury Triangle looks best as of now 

Ya the hills of interior Fairfield county look primed for 3-6” of paste. 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Doubt it sticks to your main roads too much .. side streets it may . It’s fluffy .  Enjoy 

It will 100% stick to all roads if the band that gfs and euro are advertising develops. Remember I’m at 600’ here .. SWCT is very hilly a lot of haves and have nots.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It won’t stick on roads anywhere with furnace sun tomorrow and fluffiness of it. 2-4 border to border is a good call for now 

Glad we don’t live there, hills ftw. If it snows hard enough it’ll stick everywhere. Gfs has 7 hours of heavy rates.

Holy crap gfs .. probably take half of this for most areas except highest hills.