Sey-Mour Snow

Timing with this also correlates to the warmth and lesser totals south.. Timing really moving up again on EURO .. 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lol the GFS could be the exact same run 3 days in a row and it would still probably make a move before go time. 

HA true!

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's just wrong...

It feels horribly wrong but it's 100% true with this storm.. EURO has been jumpy all season so it's no surprise.. 

Funny I might owe an apology to the ICON if it's ends up right.. 18z EURO a lot closer to ICON than any other guidance is.. 

Some are delusional with beer. The EURO (aka the new NAM) has ticked 100 miles north today in 2 runs .. We will just follow GFS which seems to be more stable .. Stay the course for now, EURO simply can't be trusted check out the run to run consistency at every layer just putrid..

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

We Comma 

congrats albany that was an awful run for CT now many see where the worry comes, back to back warm bumps on EURO 12z and 18z

18z euro is an example of the worry for southeners lmao 

First call … 65% chance we bump the 6” line up to 84 and a 35% chance we bump it down to immediate shoreline. 
 

Ya I don’t think people realize how borderline this is for south ct temps like 33-34 with 700mb flirting with freezing. 

GEFS with another good bump nw.. south ct crew with toasters on stand bye

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

Wait another cycle and it will be somewhere totally different . Last run 700mv low was in central Jersey . Could either go back south or end up over BDL next run 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s just a generic 40 mph they blanketed the watch with. I don’t think they’re going to get into that kind of granularity for details yet.

Ya would be interesting I think we can get close to blizzard criteria for immediate shore . Should be quite the scene Tuesday with heavy wet snow 35-45 mph wind for coasts and almost low dark visibility . 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Reggie bumped solidly N too. Still decently south of Euro/GFS but it gets warning snows up to near the pike or just S. 

Would be a widespread outage for southern ct verbatim 12” of snow at 33 degrees

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Is one coming?

Wild loaded look for Presidents’ Day 

Box going 4-10” with wind for the watch . Upton going 6-10” most in hills.  Power outages will be a major issue with wind and on the southern extent of significant snow. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best the EPS has looked all year in fact.

Ya they are nice 

If anyone wanted to know what EURO was going to do post day 10 take a look at the control run for sh*ts and giggles.. Some wild solutions are likely in the 10-15 day timeframe 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s mainly a shift north with qpf . Storm still tracks near BM. People seem like they’re basing that on snow maps 

Mid level tracks are the reason not qpf 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heh...cute.

 

EURO has been so damn jumpy unlike GFS for a change.. Last run that was shifted 150 miles SW

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think my point was it(EPS) increased here from 6z.  I don’t need to jack pot, I like where where I am at the moment, and have for a while.  Let’s do it. 

Not about jacking, the further north it is the more mixing for southern 3rd of CT, you are just far enough north to be pretty solid no matter what unless this just goes wagons north.. 

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Did the axis really shift or is just more widespread and stronger now?

It shifted thats why I posted that it shifted .

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually that 12z EPS is even better here…

Much juicier yes , heaviest axis north though, I'd like to see that settle down over us tomorrow .. Not really worried with so much guidance south.. 

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Looks more than 65, I say closer to 80

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I measured it with radar scope, might get like 65.5 miles if you use your astronomer buddy's protractor. 

That's about a 65 mile shift north with the heavy snow axis on EPS.. Yikes 

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This thing is hauling. It may be difficult for anyone to achieve more than a foot. I was thinking a 12-16 or 12-18 was certainly doable but that is going to be very difficult I think. 

I agree, that was just the high end tease of what’s possible .. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Playing with fire along 84 a bit initially but I’d hedge for less stream interaction on future runs.

I actually really like where we sit, with plenty of guidance south and GFS / EURO north ..