Sey-Mour Snow

28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

 

 

Those pretty color warmer anomalies for today that you were forecasting last weekend "will not allow snow idea" is completely wrong so you had to find the prettiest colors you could find .. makes sense 

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

if any 12z model shows it, get out the 'going off the cliff' gif.

Toasters will be selling out quick today.. 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Just like Thursday morning, and Friday morning Then too? Hmm? It did the same thing those mornings too. Only to come back again at the next run.  I smell a flip flopper.  
 

At some point, you gotta go with something, and as Don has said, let the chips fall where they may. GFS came in strong just now…consistent with the 0z runs. Reggie did too. 

YA as of now I'm not believing it at all with 95% of other guidance having a great thump.. Now if the hi-res stuff coming out between 8:30-9:30 lose the thump then sure time to worry. 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro went pretty lame with the thump overnight.

It's like 1-2" for all of SNE and 3-4" in NW Mass ... just horrible .. hopefully it just had a long night out of drinking 

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What do you do in the snow that is euphoric… , sled , walk , streak ?

Tracking down that deform band with 3-4” per hour rates and watching it out the window or gettin out in it is the best part. 

Just now, WeatherX said:

The 3k gets some nice Currier and Ives down this way after the initial load

They both do .. snows most of the daylight hours Sunday 

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Post a map anyone?

I’ve got nothing good yet it’s slow as heck to load 

Getting its act together at 39 may get nam’d here 

Ya nam is like 4 hours slower the public is going to hate us even more if this thing slows down again 

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Sorry about the imby question, but thoughts on start time tomorrow and is this thing coming in like a wall of snow?

Travel bball games tomorrow, game in Ridgfield from 3 to 415...just a bit worried about getting stuck in what I would assume will be a traffic disaster coming back to Southbury. Thanks!

Guidance really varies with start time.. I’d wait til after 00z .. hrrr coming in much slower with thump , euro is the slowest amongst guidance, also these come in earlier usually.. hrrr back a bit SE after being a NW outlier 

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Air mass was just way better and track came from further east up the coast....I am thinking SW CT and even maybe areas just N of NYC perform generally worse than most models here with this

Its also two months later now in much better climo so competing factors. This airmass isn’t horrible. SSTs are about 5-10 degrees cooler than mid November. 

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

sticking with my 4-8, despite what ALY and the clowns say, what say you? you do an update on the maps yet, I may have missed a few dozen pages here...

Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet. 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is that the entire event?

Pretty cold in 18z flash freeze is crazy for mass even gets down to ct this run 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah this timing is getting crazy quick. I just mentioned in my write up start of 7-9 PM...that's going to be a big fail 

Verbatim it’s like 3-4pm western ct and 6-7pm far eastern. 

For as far west and warm as hrrr is would still get 6- 10 here and be a pretty epic Saturday evening I’m down for that! Also instead of the heaviest snow while we are sleeping it’s now from 5pm to 11pm.

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal 

Lmao it almost goes up the Hudson before a last second push east 

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

The reality is the true storm track may actually be between both the Euro and GFS here. Not as close as the Euro and not further south like the GFS.

They are only about 5-10 miles apart by 12z Sunday 

Most guidance has a decent thump for all at least Saturday night.. Take what we can get.. Hopefully someone can cash in with Part 2..

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Well, you can't measure more frequently than 6 hour intervals if you want it to be legit....I adhered to that in March 2018 my 31" was still tossed.

Lol ya I mean to the average person (not us) those snow depth maps are pretty accurate bc they don’t measure until like hour 12+ probably.  But for us the reality probably falls in between the snow depth map and a Kuchera and even 10:1 sometimes, every event is different. 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it never means nothing....even if you are cold, snow will settle some...especially the more you have.

Real weenies never let it settle. Measure aggressively and often and slant stick when in Rome( I mean Tolland). 

7 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Thanks Jon, but in looking at that positive depth chart, my house is in the bullseye lol. My wife isn't going to like it, but I'll offer to take the kids....

Positive depth chart means nothing to me unless you are 33/34 degrees during daylight and or horrible growth . Take the risk for the real snow and stay in CT. 

3 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Trying to determine if I should stay in CT or head up to my weenie spot in southern VT. I was originally going to stay down here but it's hard to deny the north trend. Front-end looks more exciting in CT (but I'm on the southern edge currently and tainting looks likely), but that h850 easterly flow into VT at 2300' would probably do pretty well. I NEED SNOW in my life. Any suggestions?

Go to Canada. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes thanks 

Congrats on your paster finally .. Hoping you get a solid foot of wet snow and lose power for 7 days

Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice..  Man that's perfect heavy snow in our hood between 5-6pm goes to town until about 1am after about 6-12"