Sey-Mour Snow

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is nice for the interior 

It’s ok never phases in time just a pedestrian snow fall for CNE/NNE

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There are other maps to analyze besides snow maps. 

Anyways, here is the Euro at 120. Definite differences versus the GFs with both streams

Faster and less interaction no run to run continuity yet.  Much worse for most .  We will get something vastly different at 00z I assume 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. 
 

It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle. 

Ya I bet the fact that it comes out first is a big reason why its even looked at and talked about .. If it came out at the same time as GFS and Canadian I bet it would be forgotten.. Having it come out during the dead time can satisfy a weenies craving to get NAM'd or in this case i- CON'd pun intended

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Like I said yesterday. Something is brewing. But I feel like I know where this is heading. 

Same.. would feel great RT 2 north.. Still can go south as Will said, glancing over things slower seems it would favor south.. some of the bombs on EPS are faster and farther north..  Would be nice to get a regionwide event from Greenwich CT to Maine .. But that's asking a lot I know 

Damn! Some crazy amped members that would likely still be bombing out if this went out post 144

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

@AstronomyEnjoyer's favorite model (the ICONic) is settling in the batter's box, see ya in 45 minutes

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LOL I can proudly say I've never had to refresh my webpage waiting for the ICON model to load.  Although I hear it's slightly better this winter.. @ORH_wxman what are your thoughts on the ICON's performance recently?

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

All 50 ens.

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Keep in mind that’s only half the storm bc 6z only goes out to 144

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

And me and @AstronomyEnjoyer been on this one since it was D16 XD


though now I want a hot dog with mayo...

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I've been on the time period since day 16.5.. but seriously that timeframe makes sense but I don't care what any op says until later next week.. Need a well timed PNA spike and the NAO to start decaying not overwhelming .. That time period may be SNE's best shot if the 12-13th does what I think it will 

Ensembles really like CNE and NNE on the 12-13th.. 

47 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

There is a legit chance we all double score just a few days later with a favorable NW trend

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Legit chance you get 10 weenies on that one .. It's day 12.. Need a legit PNA spike to bring something north as we've been saying for that timeframe..

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

stop cryin @Sey-Mour Snowyou still got 5.5" 

Meh .. 24” or bust 

LBSW on 18z 975 SE of BM ..Such a thread the needle .. it's actually mostly rain for south coast.. 

Deep interior favored on GEFS and EPS with this one.... for now..  Will be a ton of waffling around the next 6 days.. Definitely a thread the needle look with not much cold to be found, 6z gfs shows you how to get it done.  Will need a bomb with the perfect track to get a good event.   Some pretty big timing differences on GEFS and EPS anywhere from Monday to Thursday AM also about 25% of the members are really amped..  

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Pacific has gone to crap? Hmmm?  Last evening pacific looked great. 

Still looks fine, it’s a bit “troughier” out west but that’s what you need for the storms. Just don’t want the mega trough out in the PAC NW. 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is flatter than the op for the storm around the 13th.

If you take a look at the indies there’s  actually more like the op a ton of interior northeast hits and a few at the coast. 

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oh look, another storm with no cold and a brutal cutoff SOP

Verbatim there’s a ton of cold and a great airmass, it cuts west before transferring so the mid levels warm south of the pike and a ton of mixing. All we can take out of this run is that it has a juicy storm again 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet.
 

Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. 

Exactly plus with that subtropical moisture feed I think we will be fine. 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua

RAY : “He said Nashua and suppression” 

3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Nah, not the same person.

Impressive, family? 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anheuser enjoyer and moonshine productions love that.

I’m thinking they may be the same person? Kinda odd to have two people so similar in posting style to just randomly pop up and start mass posting 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get PD III

Cosgrove already alerting the masses for PD3 .. but seriously things do look very favorable for something big in that time period… lets hope it’s a uniform snowfall for all .

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Just for chuckles I'm looking at the relatively useless 18z gfs more closely. coarse-grid gfs total qpf is roughly 1-1.5" for that system here

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/conus/precip_p60/gfs_conus_300_precip_p60.gif

 

 

This is all snow, though? And how readily would it accumulate?  Ahhh entirely pointless but hopefully there's a decent storm!

Well ya not the greatest set up with that low in Canada on that 18z run . 60 more gfs cycles to lock it in. I’m sure we will get a few warmer runs and a few SECS runs 

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It's amazing how bad even mets can be at reading a map. Seymour, were you were looking at the Kuchie Ku weenie algorithm?

No, I'm using a site you actually pay for..

31 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

LMAO that is one of your worst posts ever. You have been better lately.. You literally picked the only bad frame that storms gives your area 6" + and CNE  12-18" of clown snow.. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern mid-month still looks excellent. But it’s pretty much snoozefest for 10 days before that…only question is whether we can sneak a 60F nape tanner or two in there at the end of next week/weekend. 
 

But the pattern beyond that is still about as good as you could draw it up. 
 

 

especially love that EPS look tremendous blocking in the Arctic.  Things really start shuffling by day 8-9.. And that pattern starts locking in by day 10-12.. We should be tracking a region-wide plowable event by sometime next week hopefully some 60s too while we track..