Sey-Mour Snow

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just a good idea to not disrobe this far out. But yeah…it’s something to watch. And then you need to worry about it washing away a few days later. 

I’m staying with my reverse psychology until we get what. Enjoy the rain 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Swfe?

Thats just a hugger with east winds SWFE is usually further west 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow... that 10th-12th deal is something we haven't seen in years really ... a full on multi-faceted continental mauler.

Tornado testicles along the Gulf coast with that jet structure fanning over a Gulf LLJ like that...   Meanwhile, that high pressure and damming is not going to lose with that back built structure in Quebec - regardless of what the GFS thinks is happening with the set up, IT WILL BE WRONG if attempts to win with warm air N of the PHL with that look - and that's generous.   Meanwhile, there's bent back trowal blizzard raging (probably) fo chi town. 

what a mess. 

Like the model is over amped at this range but it's nice to finally get you guys are drug delivery.  Just don't let your eyes roll back in your heads and your eyes turn opaque lol

Need consistency in the 4-6 day range to get the correct dose of drugs 

Just now, MJO812 said:

I saw that, is that even physically possible. 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In reference to what Pope said earlier.

One of the more interesting surface evolutions I’ve seen modeled. I know I’m a weenie for analyzing day 11 gfs 18z but it produces heavy snow east of the low? 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Miller B for the huge cutter now thanks to the 50 50 low. Nice turn of events.

Inside hugger Miller B. Still rain for us but nice to see the option of the St Paul cutter trending east on some guidance 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s a nice high on the 10th. No pack is getting wiped with that.

It’s funny bc you said pack .. 

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Holy shit. The pattern on the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty. Actual fucking COLD!

Put the beer down and step away from the computer 

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you saying we won’t Sey Mour Snow?

High likelihood our Coastal wx will be rain. 

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ironically EPS wants to bring more rain for the 7th.

Fixed it for you 

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s what I’m feeling.

Closing shades for 3 weeks in Jan with a -nao in Central New England is not smart. Maybe down here on south coast we get skunked but even we can get lucky down here in the tropics. 

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Needed another all-day 40s on New Year’s Eve to have a chance but it looks like NYE is going to be sort of chilly for recent standards. Highs around 34-36 with lows a bit below freezing. 
 

Tomorrow morning’s low looks like it will get counterfeited too prior to midnight tomorrow night. 

Another good one would be finding out when many climate sites had their latest first day staying below 32 for a high. My lowest high here is 34 this season. 

All I can say is wow, our Jan 4-6 and Jan 6-8 storms are back .. 00z euro plus euro control run plus 6z gfs .. several nor'easters finally modeled with good tracks ... 90% rain for SNE... going to need to phase in some cold somehow.. 

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where is Scooter’s gorilla? 

That was the Jan 4 through 6 threat she gone . Guess it’s time to change my profile image 

Today’s GFS next 15 days .. 40s to near 50 everyday in CT except one. Lows barely below freezing that’s hardly a pattern change from most of December.  We haven’t had a high below 32 since February 28th.. Average high at bdl is 37

7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking?

Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva.

It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland.

Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples.

I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).


 

Yes it does. Many are jaded from recent failures, GEFS not as good, and also that pattern can easily be great for the distant interior and bad for many on this subforum, time will tell. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

We are in major need for a D-drip. And the only fix is a legit storm to track. 

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

I get it, the op models are disheartening plus these mild temps for the foreseeable future suck.  Also having absolutely nothing to track, I have zero hope for any threats in the next 10 days. 
 

Just have to flip this pattern completely and get rid of the mild pac air. Even though we technically start a new regime to end this week it sure seems as if it is morphing from a potentially favorable “better” pattern to more of the same BS. 
 

We just have to keep in mind it’s December 27th. I am excited to see what the -NAO and some true cold air eventually being available can do for us. 

This is a pattern that definitely favors up and in at first.. GEFS and EPS are very tasty in the individual members for most of New England and the Northeast with interior favored for now with many big hitters . 

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Any maps to show the possibilities. That's all we have at this moment lol.

Trying to keep the hope alive

I can’t post maps anymore it always says file too big  

EPS nice in long range, many members have monster snowstorms in that Jan 6-8 range 

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe I'm stretching here, but you're not going to be 45 to 50 after this Thursday. Friday, Saturday supposed to be a bit chilly, but for next week where you are, you're probably going to be in the load of mid 40s at the most for all of next week. Not 45 to 50. But it still doesn't get us any snow lol so it doesn't matter much I guess

Just taking GFS verbatim its highs in the 40s 12 of the next 15 days with 3 days in upper 30s. 

Surprising how we are still so torched post this coming weekend with the pattern change.  Just no cold air to work with GFS is still +5 to +15 for the weekend and much of next week.  Highs 45-50 still in these parts with lows around freezing. 

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest bias has been speed…models have been wayyyy to slow with the MJO propagation. They were trying to stall it in phase 7 for a week-plus like 10 days ago and then less than 3 days later it was already out of phase 7 and right now we’re already in phase 1. 

Ensembles long range overnight really hitting that monster -nao hard also a lot less -pna

31 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Blocking further south now, not the same.  Further south blocking has become a winter staple

The blocking is literally in the same exact spot as that weeklies map