Sey-Mour Snow

1-2 degrees from being 6-12” for a lot of us 

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS a bit too suppressed at 18z for next Friday. 

Good sign that means 00z will be epic inverse rule . 

Pattern after next weekends threat looking promising on GEFS. 

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Liking the GFS at 12z here for next week. That’s a good trend on the trailing wave. 

First 00z 12z run to show it that favorable. 

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

I made a comparison GIF of the 6z vs 12z vs 18z runs… the 6z and 18z runs give the event a chance by stretching out the trough and lagging some energy behind. Once again, need some other guidance to show this happening for it to be believable. That is a pretty damn juicy mean for this far out though. Maybe the best all year?



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I’ve noticed almost every 6z and 18z run have had the storm for 4-5 days now and the 00z and 12zs lose it. Weird. 

Record high of 64 BDL. Mild as far as the eye can see. As others have said doesn’t mean we can’t sneak in a snowstorm. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was plenty specific enough:

January 2023 Outlook

January Analogs:1971, 1976, 1985, 1986,1996 2011, 2014, 2021, 2022

January is like to be consistent with climatology in that it will be the most consistently fierce month in that there is likely to be "storms and rumor of storms", to quote an old and wise weather weenie. It was mentioned that opportunities for a coupling of EPO/PNA style blocking with NAO blocking would be scarce this season, but if it is to occur, it will be this month, as evidenced by the January 2023 forecast H5 composite:

The recovery of  the PNA from the RNA month of December is also evident in the ECMWF forecast:

 

Note the opportunity for cross polar flow and what will at times be frigid conditions. This will also be a month of great flux, which will likely couple with well above average N hemispheric SSTs and a surplus of water vapor owed to the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga last January help to facilitate a large scale and perhaps generation storm opportunity. This event will be the signature storm of the season, and will have the potential to cripple travel over a widespread area for a time in a window between approximately January 6th-20th

This is the month that the mid Atlantic likely receives the bulk of its seasonal snowfall. January will be the inverse of December in that it will be biased more wintery earlier, but blocking should relinquish its grip and it should modify with flooding threats possible during a major thaw.

 

January 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies:

 

1951-2010:

 

1991-2020:

 

 

January 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:
 

1951-2010:

 

1991-2020:

 

It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composites, but also even during the season in general given the unique circumstances surrounding Hunga Tonga.

What does the major thaw being in early January instead of late January do to your forecast? You stated cold and stormy early and thaw late. But we most likely thaw Jan 1-5/6.

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a teaching moment . You can’t feel like you’re forecasting in December when you’re calling for 50’s. Because it’s not normal . In Morch it is . High temps in Dec avg colder . So when you lose the month.. you really do lose 

. 

 

There’s been a stretch of days with highs between 55 to 65 almost every winter.  It’s pretty normal. We had a stretch of 70s in January I think in 2019? 

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just need something.. anything to give me something wx wise to look forward to. Last week at least I had the HWW. There’s literally nothing . Not sure the last time we’ve gone over a month with nothing 

We have record highs to look forward to.

6z gfs is Kevin’s dream storm for Jan 6-8. That storm has had a wintry signal on gfs for the past 3-4 days. 

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like the GEFS actually change the pattern earlier than the EPS but it just never gets as favorable as the EPS. 
 

Like here’s D11…EPS looks worse than GEFS here:

 

 

But by the time we get to D13-14, the EPS looks a lot better in the PAC but I’d don’t really hate either look:

Ya true, definitely would prefer the EPS to verify verbatim.

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and we’re prob waiting longer in SNE. At least the pattern change is moving forward on the ensembles. We’re not yet seeing it get pushed back which is about all you can ask for at the moment. Hopefully that doesn’t change but it’s always a possibility. 

Looks like GEFS and GEPS pushed back a bit.  EPS looked fine but GEFS led the charge in pacific last pattern change. 

Florida reporting wintry precip 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if this is the new norm 

Rumors of White Christmas’ another 20 years and it will be a summer holiday. 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing anything on radar there but ok 

What radar are you using? 

27.8 here steadier snow moving in.  18-21 degrees from nyc metro to SWCT . 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still wondering where these squalls are going to materialize from 

Look at western CT forming overhead like I said before.  Light snow here was a good squall training to my north earlier. 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are the squalls between 5-8 the ones forming now in NE PA?

No . Our squalls will form overhead. 

5 degree drop in 10 min now holding steady 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still in 40s there. No way.

37-39 in extreme western CT

Flash freeze threat really increasing.  With rain changing to snow squalls as temps drop quickly. Already 44 here. Won’t have to drop much when the front comes. 

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We survived the night. Still have power but the Exterior damage is extensive:

 

 

Prayers 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z HRRR has some SHSN too. Nice hit for the outer Cape.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie has some squalls along a secondary front tomorrow night. No other models have it, but something to watch. Drops 1-3 near MA/CT border to near BOS. 

6z hrrr hinted at some intense squalls / hi res Reggie too