Sey-Mour Snow

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Srn CT may get a boost soon. Worth watching that inflow off LI sound.

Been coming down nicely for an hour over an inch easily. 

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried to tell em. Your buddy from E HA said he wanted to go warning  level , but you insisted on flurries to 3”

Problem is it won’t be widespread.  Most people that follow us live on shore so we always stay conservative for them. New map is 4-6” hills 2-4” elsewhere and 1-2” shore. 

All 18z guidance beefed up pretty nicely. There should definitely be a solid band of several inches. I’d favor Litchfield and Hartford counties for that. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man a solid 6-12” coming tomorrow night 

6-12 beers at the GTG

Follow up wave next Saturday too, showed that at 12z

ends up LBSW... Just some light to moderate snow in southern CT.. 

GFS looks amazing at surface through 135.... Heavy snow in CT low bombing and scooting east off Atlantic City

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

My local cable news said mixed precip coating to 1

 

They are based out of NJ and will always be conservative.  While a coating to an inch is the most likely outcome for the shore.  Parts of Easton (especially the hills) may definitely see 3"+ depending on how the banding sets up.. 

3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

18z NAM 

 

We were bound to get nam’d 

and then theres this threat .....  24-36 hours of 55-95 mph gusts for the cape yikes... 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Well.... which is it?

12 or 24 -

cuz 12 sucks donkey ballz.  24's awesome

hahaha j/k

EURO is 12-24" over a good part of interior SNE destroys Kevin to Ray

Gets to CNJ then pushes back ESE and stalls at BM in the 970s while it crushed interior SNE... wow 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I never know around here lol. 
I’d put some lollies in.

ya a loly over Seymour 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the box map for MA but I think it’s way too light in southern half of CT. Not that they focus strongly on that area as most of it is outside their CWA…is OKX going that low down there? I get temps are kind of marginal on the coast but just inland it should be plenty cold enough. 

Ya they will bust low there’s a lot of elevation just inland a few miles. The valleys on the shore will struggle to accumulate though unless we get heavy rates like hrrr shows. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Is that sarcastic?  

He’s saying you agree with his map

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Norlun west on this run

It’s about 25 miles NE of 18z

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No it is not. I would bet you if you went back let’s say 50 or 100 years… at least half if not more Dec 1-15 periods dropped accumulating snow over interior SNE. Flakes in the air is not a win . Not close 

ORH: 12/1 - 12/15 last 22 First half of Decembers

2000 - 4.7" / 2001 - 9.0" / 2002 - 11.8" / 2003 - 21.5" / 2004 - .3" / 2005 - 15.9" / 2006 - .4" / 2007 - 12.3" / 2008 - .6" / 2009 - 11.2" / 2010 - 0.00" / 2011 - .3" / 2012 - .8" / 2013 - 11.5" / 2014 - 1.3" / 2015 - 0.00" / 2016 - 5.2"  / 2017 - 7.7" / 2018 - 0.00" / 2019 - 23.1" / 2020 - 9.6" / 2021 - 1.3" 

8 of last 22 Decembers under 1" at ORH - for Dec 1-15

Average Dec 1 -15: 6.75" 

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It still is the GFS op with little GEFS support.  That being said .. it’s not the old GFS and it now is at least capable of sniffing something out. The GGEM sniffed out Sunday Night/ Monday snow evevt . So things can sometimes sniff

No beer?

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Norluns love to creep Northeast in guidance as you get closer in. Creeping , tiptoeing NE

Let’s get it from Seymour to Tolland.  

18z gfs beefing up and bringing that Norlun sig even closer. 

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still was above average snowfall season 21/22.

Can't complain about only 7 below average snowfall seasons this century.

Recency bias and Oh I’m complaining lol . It’s all good fortunes are due to turn. 

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you have a good shot of some -SN later Sunday. Maybe you get an inch? FWIW SW CT really hasn't done that well either.

Thanks! It’s been dreadful here for 4 seasons besides a nice stretch in February 2021! 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Is there a reason they are running the NAM on an IBM 486SX CD ROM computer today?

lol I thought it was me 

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

That storm was insanity.  Only got like 4-6" at home if I recall.

ya that was 4-8" SNE with a fun stinger at the end that crushed SEMASS with a crazy hurricane blizzard ending..