Sey-Mour Snow

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Gfs has a low in Chicago

Southern Illinois to central Ohio to south of Long Island. Only about 300 miles south of Chicago. 

Gfs pretty much exact same output as 12z.. great for all of ct.. guidance honing in an a max near Granby up onto mass of 8-12”… 

From upton disco…

Forecast snowfall totals have been largely unchanged for NYC and
Long Island and nudged up slightly across the Lower Hudson Valley,
Southern CT and interior northeast NJ due to the increasing
confidence given the aforementioned trend in the secondary low.
Widespread Advisory level snow looks likely across the Lower Hudson
Valley, Southern CT and interior northeast NJ with 3-5 inches. Would
not be surprised to see this upward trend continue. 

yet they took numbers down from the 4-6” they had overnight? Makes zero sense 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No issues prior to 12z. I just meant afterwards. The juicier guidance had decent SG for a time. I’m not sure the euro had the best SG except maybe briefly near the coast ironically. 

Ya no doubt after 12z we will struggle to add anything ..

lol upton advisory for only 3-5” here .. we usually get the upton reverse jinx so we should be good for 6-10” based on their forecast 

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss the 10:1 after 12z. The rates are meh and temps warm up.

I think once the sun comes up we can forget about accumulations with borderline temps for many. However, Many areas out in CT should exceed 10:1 ratios during the peak with heavy snow falling between 10pm and 6am so no effects of the March sun to worry about. Also most guidance has temps between 23-28 for the duration of the heavy precip just inland.  The driest guidance has about ..4-.5” qpf  with the wettest about .8-1.0” qpf. With a bit of ratios between 10-15:1 during the thump I think it’s a fairly easy widespread 6”+ for much of CT.  Also looks like great lift in the snow growth zone on hi res data.  Just my two cents.

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is real weak sauce. Even in Ct.

Definitely still a good thump for SW 2/3 but about 15% cut back from 00z.. still a solid 4-6”+ away from the NE corner . 

HRRR, 3km nam, and href look very thumpy with impressive rates between 9pm and 3am

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Whats up with this new thumbs down emoji? It looks nothing like the others stylisitcally and ghetto af...

Forum is on a budget? purchased it from $1 emoji dot com ?

We put this out this morning. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro still ka-ka for us easterners. It actually looked a bit better than 12z for the CT crew. 

Ya it was somehow worse out east while being a bit better out west. I hope everyone can cash in for a uniform 4-8” across SNE when all is said and done. 

38 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I thought places that haven’t seen in inch all season would be thrilled at the prospect of 5. 
 

The euro is not pretty but it will spell a positive surprise somewhere in CT, with like 8”, a la 12/12/22. 
 

Take it and run with it.

I don’t think anyone in southern CT has a problem with the EURO solution verbatim. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Individuals

 

Timing differences bc of map availability but we get an idea where the axis is. 

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Nice the CT peeps got some. It’s been awhile. 
 

looks like it may be trying to move east. 

Ya the .3” was great 1.2”’ now in the last 11 weeks.  We should double to triple our season total Monday night hopefully 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like SW CT has had some decent setups? They had the January band in 2022 and then prior to the at some good setups in 20/21. 

No doubt we have gotten some great events in the 8-16” range and over performed in many.  Just missing the big ones that you guys have gotten out east.  But no lack of the widespread 8-16” events we’ve had one every single year. 

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Why don't you keep heading North Of The Pike until we don't hear from you anymore.

You were threatening to steal his snow lol

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If my kids could wipe their own asses, they’d be adults. 

Patience grasshopper , there’s still a way to several inches for us.. it’s just the gfs , I’d rather have euro on our side now. 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs warmer in wct. Euro on an island yet again.

If that stayed all snow it’s a hell of a thump though ..

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not even. I think we are at 3rd least if winter were to end. 

Least snowy for all of southern ct and it’s not even close. 

Here’s the 12z eps mean and 50th percentile compared to 00z

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That would be hilarious.

Wow what the hell , we take in western CT that would change me to Sey-mour Jack. 

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ughh I was pretty excited with some features of the GFS looking better...but I seriously think we would struggle to really accumulate. 

Bad snow growth may limit up there, but temps are pretty cold for the bulk of the precip.. Several inches seems likely from the northern 3rd of CT on up.. 

Better example of mean vs 50th percentile. 

18 minutes ago, George001 said:

If that’s the case, I want to rain too! You made the Pope angry, you must atone for your sins. I will gladly give up my 20 inches of snow as a sacrifice to or lord and savior, the Pope. I was once an atheist myself, but the Pope showed me the way by being the only 100% accurate meteorologist to ever walk this earth. No mere mortal can predict what Mother Nature will do with anywhere near that degree of accuracy, but the Pope can and does simply by observing the behavior of geese! To me, that is proof that a higher power exists. One cannot have that level of insight about Mother Nature without some form of divine intervention. Fuck it, I want to see the low trend so far north it’s in Greenland.

Either you are drunk, high, both, or this is a burner account.