Sey-Mour Snow

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

Wait another cycle and it will be somewhere totally different . Last run 700mv low was in central Jersey . Could either go back south or end up over BDL next run 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s just a generic 40 mph they blanketed the watch with. I don’t think they’re going to get into that kind of granularity for details yet.

Ya would be interesting I think we can get close to blizzard criteria for immediate shore . Should be quite the scene Tuesday with heavy wet snow 35-45 mph wind for coasts and almost low dark visibility . 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Reggie bumped solidly N too. Still decently south of Euro/GFS but it gets warning snows up to near the pike or just S. 

Would be a widespread outage for southern ct verbatim 12” of snow at 33 degrees

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Is one coming?

Wild loaded look for Presidents’ Day 

Box going 4-10” with wind for the watch . Upton going 6-10” most in hills.  Power outages will be a major issue with wind and on the southern extent of significant snow. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best the EPS has looked all year in fact.

Ya they are nice 

If anyone wanted to know what EURO was going to do post day 10 take a look at the control run for sh*ts and giggles.. Some wild solutions are likely in the 10-15 day timeframe 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s mainly a shift north with qpf . Storm still tracks near BM. People seem like they’re basing that on snow maps 

Mid level tracks are the reason not qpf 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heh...cute.

 

EURO has been so damn jumpy unlike GFS for a change.. Last run that was shifted 150 miles SW

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think my point was it(EPS) increased here from 6z.  I don’t need to jack pot, I like where where I am at the moment, and have for a while.  Let’s do it. 

Not about jacking, the further north it is the more mixing for southern 3rd of CT, you are just far enough north to be pretty solid no matter what unless this just goes wagons north.. 

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Did the axis really shift or is just more widespread and stronger now?

It shifted thats why I posted that it shifted .

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually that 12z EPS is even better here…

Much juicier yes , heaviest axis north though, I'd like to see that settle down over us tomorrow .. Not really worried with so much guidance south.. 

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Looks more than 65, I say closer to 80

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I measured it with radar scope, might get like 65.5 miles if you use your astronomer buddy's protractor. 

That's about a 65 mile shift north with the heavy snow axis on EPS.. Yikes 

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This thing is hauling. It may be difficult for anyone to achieve more than a foot. I was thinking a 12-16 or 12-18 was certainly doable but that is going to be very difficult I think. 

I agree, that was just the high end tease of what’s possible .. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Playing with fire along 84 a bit initially but I’d hedge for less stream interaction on future runs.

I actually really like where we sit, with plenty of guidance south and GFS / EURO north ..

Ray just sitting back smiling after a 25" dopamine drip.. thats probably the best run yet for the entire New England forum 3-6" south shore that 12-18" just inland for most with an 18-24" stripe in all of NE mass

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro stays the course. Splitting hairs but a bit SE

lmao its way north 

RGEM looks great too, great start to 00z would be a crushing for all of SNE. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. But I’ve  noticed on all guidance the mid levels are pretty far removed from the center too. Obviously you don’t want it squashed , but just something I’ve noticed. 

ya from that primary tracking into West Virginia 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

NAM actually looks excellent for that time frame

It's well south and looks good. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it would be pretty good in SNE. 

Ya it just has the low pressure off of Carolina/VA coast at 84, thats pretty damn south.. But it has good precip well north. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

good. When it’s north, the short range mesos then typically follow.

ya its actually believable at 84.. same timing and thermals as the big boys.  Looks a bit weaker, south, and colder , but it's a possible solution I guess. 

FWIW long range NAM is way south and looks like it would be good for SNE extrapolated 

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Stock up on groceries for the 6 hour storm lol

 

only 6 hours of my daily 20 hour fast.. People could use a break from the constant insulin spikes..