Sey-Mour Snow

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs juicier and warmer.

zero consistency with anything , total toss up atm IMO .  00z gfs lost tuesday mostly and grabbed the wednesday wave, 06z likes both waves , EURO lost ? Or is the king onto something before everything else .. 6z gefs amped again

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z EPS a nice bump NW. Lot of good hits in there 

 

The control run which always follows the op was 500 miles plus NW.. looking at the indies there’s several monster hits for many on this board .. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

OPP?

Ya you know me 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get a tempest for all. Deform WOR, I’ll take the CCB violence, paste for our friend in Sandwich and we all sit back and smoke a cigar.

I’m down 

Several bombs (975mb range) , at least half of the gefs members have bombs going past benchmark into Gulf of Maine.. Huge mean this far out 5-7" for most of this forum on GEFS. 
 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s our icestorm  LFG!

Too cold most of the column it would just be sleet 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'm all set with trying to see dendrites 600' above my head. Position works for me at 5+days out.

Exactly for us coast folks we much rather pull this NW than SE

Liking the progession in the PAC in the long range (13-15 on ensembles) after the transient possible mild-up... Really nice to see everything moving along as planned .. 

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

When is the pattern change for colder?  Jan 20 to 24?  Then winter is over?

If you can't find the pattern change, I'd reccommend some Bifocals. 

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Not one mention of the euro 961 over MVY?

I'm just focusing on Tuesday for now, but ya 980 Delmarva-960 MVY -945 near MT. Washington... 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the later development from an IMBY perspective and am willing to gamble with that.

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree that the worst of the cold will be west, but personally, I am okay with forgoing the opportunity to have the PV queef on my noggin. I agree with the pattern relaxation, but this is not December...its a new pattern with an Aleutian low in place/building PNA and another PV lobe poised for descent.

Why would we want the worst of the cold here? That would ensure cold and dry with no snowpack since most in SNE will have no snow by Saturday morning 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All that matters to me:

Yes GEFS looked way better I forgot to include that in the post

A bit SE of the great 12z run on EPS , and also later devloping , still some great hits and very strong lows around BM..  Still a great mean of 4-6" for this forum less SW and more NE as most members really get going in gulf of Maine 

6z gfs with a massive cave to euro with a stronger slower low like the Euro had on the jan 10th 00z run.. not good verbatim .. a lot to iron out on guidacne in that timeframe 

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS must have a few big ones in there.

Solid storm for most on this forum, but it will change a bunch more as this is a day 5.5 to day 6 storm depending on guidance.. Euro still bombs out on that run down to 985mb 200 miles east of the cape.. 

DOLPHINS are in trouble vs the Chiefs weather wise.. Chiefs getting lucky .. wind chills forecast to be 10 to 20 below for game time in KC, MIAMI isn't going to do well in that Saturday night.. 

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Was hoping we’d be parsing some exciting OP’s to keep us entertained. Not so much. Instead we dive deep into pack retention analysis. Zzzzzzzzz

dead zone waiting for euro.. we could discuss that massive rainstorm the UKIE has on our lunch breaks instead?

Here's the storm that started right after the Super Bowl in NY .. Looks like a NYC metro and SWCT jack thats why no one remembers here lmao .. 5-10" for SWCT and nyc metro and 2-5" to the north and east  

EPIC cold and lake effect snow for the Buffalo game Sunday at 1.. That will be fun 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

yes..this is what I’m remembering. 

2014 we were off by two years lol - I looked it up.. very similar set up though I remember it clearly 

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

DC to Maine, most of CT got 6-12". Maybe you're thinking of the "jonas" blizzard in late Jan that season. 

The 2/5/16 special was a wave on a front that had this very long SW/NE movement on the radar. Models had it ticking NW every run leading up to the event, it was kind of a surprise event 24 hours in because beyond that it was mostly forecast to be a whiff. 

Thats the one that started 6 hours aftet the Super Bowl in Metlife stadium; that would been cool to see if it was sped up by 6-9 hours.  EDIT Nope that was 2014.. Very similar storm though.. Feb 2 2014... 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS aren't really biting, but on the other hand...given that trough..I don't think it's a big concern for me at the moment.

Rather odd that only 3 GEFS members have it