Sey-Mour Snow

21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Radar looks good in northern mid Atlantic but that’s decaying as it swings east, and the mid levels open back up.

Misconception to think that whole structure swings through tonight in that same state. It’s also going to speed up.

I feel like 2” is optimistic scenario here; and most likely outcome  is a coating. 

Weird latest HRRR has 6”+ there from 5pm on. But radar looks horrible up where you are. I think coating to an inch looks like it. Colossal fail for HRRR this entire system . Time to retire that model. 

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey maybe we can write the whole month of February off by this afternoon, after the EPS comes out. 

I’m with you, it’s hard to write off Feb 1-14 that’s peak climo. The pattern doesn’t look like an all out torch so I’d lean that there will be something to at least track whether it’s a hit/miss  or light/moderate event  I’m sure something will creep up.  Then the weenie set up we’ve all been waiting for is now Feb 12th ish to early March. Let’s see I’m not sold on any great pattern setting up since one hasn’t set up in over 2 years. 

Looks like 1.25” of rain will do it for round 1. 

What an absolute deluge yard is flooded for the 30th time this winter. .97” in 6 hours.  16” of rain since Dec 1 and 6.1” of snow. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only problem is you now have the midlevel warm tongue moving north through CT now. Looks like it’s approaching Waterbury now.

Yup was just posting that . That line is blasting north and putting an end to any snow chances. Already past OXC.  I had 15 minutes of snow , then that line blasted through and it’s been all rain temp made it down to 34.2 now rising .. it’s over.. fun lil tease on what could have been an epic day if temps were a few degrees cooler. Edit  : it is already in southern Litchfield and Hartford county. 

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

HRRR has it snowing in CT as of 7am, so precip maps don't reflect reality. Perhaps that area gets 'isothermal' in next couple of hours 

I’m enjoying my 1-3” at 7am the hrrr had. 34.7 degrees

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you see any evidence that it can become isothermal once the heavy stuff arrives ? There’s reports of sleet and snow in SW CT and SE NY according to Walt. 

Cat paws mixed in starting at 7am now 25% paws. Sticking to roof bc they are so massive in size. 

.65” rain 35.1 degrees. Good watering for the grass, should green things up some more. 

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Baseball @zone nation, 1pm tomorrow...should be an interesting drive if anything with the elevation changes from here to there

Hoping for a positive bust, but expecting mostly white rain here

Ya they are about 450-500’ there . You go from sea level to 650’ in about 2-3 miles 

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not that optimistic on the front end thump. Feel like best shot at accums is the CCB stuff even if it’s not heavy…it will at least have a colder column. Easier to accumulate at 32-33 when 925 is like -2 or -3 than isothermal. 
 

But it’s admittedly a real tough call because heavy rates will trump a lot of issues. The problem is you can’t guarantee heavy rates. Can we get 0.2” per hour QPF? Maybe. But there’s a huge difference between that and like 0.08-0.12 per hour. 

Thump really trending to be ct mass border and south. Whether it’s a thump of rain or snow we will see…

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

925mb was marginal too on SV, I don't have access to WB

It’s all isothermal lol so close 

Just now, dryslot said:

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

It’s isothermal on euro wb shows it 

Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I were you.. I’d take your pants off 

lol if that verified sure would , but I have a better chance of not being bald tomorrow morning I think 

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s a rainy Sunday for most of sne on the euro.

18z a bit better for sure with the front end thump for SNE

HRRR will either score a coup or just be horribly wrong .. it’s pounding isothermal snow here by hour 10-12

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like 5-7AM start time in CT south to north 

Yes for start time. If HRRR holds serve at 00z and NAMs and Rgems cool again and have thump.. Then ya its go time for the hills especially.

On a side note it's so hard to do an elevation map for your area.. So even though you are on the 1-3 line,  I really think you are more like 3-6" with that thump plus the Sunday night snow.. 

GFS and Reggie did trend better with thump. Really a nowcast for CT. Especially the elevations . 

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think you’ll be adjusting that map south 

Just adjusted it north. But it’s a zero confidence forecast.  If we get some more shuffles and a trend that’s our friend then I’ll adjust south. 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gonna be close in the hills down there 

If it was 2 degrees colder man…. Some nearby towns have 800-1000’ elevations I wonder if they can sneak out a miracle. 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2

same trend 

CT/RI do well 

That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done 

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’s thump in CT?

Strong thump … of rain? Nowcast IMO I could see 0/3/6 in your area. Would give 33% chance of each verifying. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs blows 3-5” on kuchie region wide - except southern CT of course .. 

Fixed it for you lol .. this is just a nowcast for everyone, every piece of guidance is different with every aspect of this storm.. 

Nam with a good nod towards the thump idea.. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Currently thinking C-2 coastal CT, 1-3 interior southern CT (mostly 2-3), 2-4 low elevation northern CT (mostly 3-4), and 3-6 (mostly 5-6) for Kev land and the NW hills. 

Weird that hrrr and gfs Continue to be so cold and thumpy. Hrrr hits nyc metro hard lol