Sey-Mour Snow

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t know if it was the warm fall/ Dec or what.. but it’s amazing how green all the lawns are this year. No brown Xmas.. just green 

Ya my stripes look pretty sharp for Christmas Time. 

Think the melts are bad now wait til we see Jim Cantore playing in 3 feet of thunder snow on Christmas Eve Eve with zero visibility and a -30 wind chill in Central Illinois.

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a sick , awful , terrible gut feeling about this winter. I hope you guys are right 

Well the only good thing about that statement is that it’s not winter yet and the models have no idea what will happen more than 7 days out so we have that going for us. 

Your Welcome

GFS is a pretty epic solution for the Great Lakes.  A truly severe Blizzard that stalls.

15-30" over a 300-600 mile wide area -  with 60-70 mph gusts - Wind chills 20 to 40 below zero the last half of the blizzard.. 

A truly life threatening dangerous Blizzard.

Sucks that it will be another mild and green Christmas week.  

However, those that are happy and healthy and blessed with family enjoy it! You never know when that will change.  Our community had a horrible loss this week when a father with a wife and 3 young ones died within 7 weeks of cancer diagnosis.  

I am definitely going to make a concerted effort to enjoy the family and holidays more than ever this year.  

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone, hope you can enjoy! 

This mostly looked like a cutter.  Besides a 24 hour favorable trend Wednesday into Thursday AM.  Signs were there early on in ensembles. 

Just now, weathafella said:

Cmon ice-let’s head south and sip pina coladas while talking SF Giants.

You can sip pinas here outside in shorts on Friday. 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Onto January....

Ya pattern looks horrendous after Christmas with pacific warmth flooding the US. Woof - this is worse than those years when it was 60-70 in December bc there wasn’t any expectation. This is to be has to be up there with the worst weather December we’ve had. Teased with tons of potential for one 1-5” Light snow event that melted within a week in SNE. 

Merry Grinchmas everyone 

0.00 .. 0.00 last 6 hours … hopefully another 0.00 overnight 

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you look at the ensemble pattern at 500 on all models 12/25-12/31 there is a way better chance something happens there than there ever was this next week.  That is a true +PNA pattern 

Next weeks pattern looked the same it’s always 10-15 days out. 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Great read about the splitting of the energy to our north being what we need for the favorable solutions. 

Just now, CT Rain said:

The GFS has a March 93 vibe around here. 

Ya same thought. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's the model not me  

 

My concern given the confluence is a hugger...but I think forecasting it one way or the other isn't the best approach. Hopefully just offshore.

I know I kid. Wish I still had access to WSI for those clusters lost access from my old job last year when they updated the site.  Also WSI is the first to load data. I agree just a wait and see approach hopefully a track just inside the BM. 

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS clusters. 66% of them have a good look. The others not so much.

 

Good to see. That 66% cluster looks strong as well.  Too bad the pope said you suck at forecasting I don’t know if I can believe you. 

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark

if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

Edit option 4: could cut to Buffalo.  
 

Right now after last nights guidance most likely. 
 

1. Hugger or track over SNE

2. bench mark track 

3. Track over Buffalo 

4. ots 

I’m sure the order of this will change at least a few more times in the next 2-3 days. 

850’ at Oxford/Waterbury airport. Most guidance had 3-6” there.. oops 

36 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I don't get that.  If the temps and qpf are means of all members, then so is the snow a mean of all members.  If the mean temps for an area are low to mid 20's, and upper level means are well below freezing for the same area, shouldn't the mean snow for that area correspond with those indicators?

Otherwise, it would appear that the cutting members are skewing the snow totals.  The placement of the low on the GEFS is also a mean, and the resulting metrics should be based on that. 

I think the problem with most of the ensemble models is that they take a mean of the snow totals of all members (including the cutters showing little or zero) and plug that into their maps, when in reality the maps should be reflecting the snow resulting from the placing of the mean slp and resultant lower and upper level means.  The storm vista maps appear to take the latter approach with the GEFS.

 

So if 50 members showed rain and 1 showed a 51” blizzard. You’d want the mean to be 51” of snow? 

23 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Those Weather Bell maps are underdone.  If you compute the total GEFS qpf for the storm it becomes obvious, especially in areas that stay in the 20's throughout the storm.  That area NW of Worcester to S NH shows 6.6-6.7 in their snow map, yet total qpf shows an average around 1.25".  Temps there are in the low to mid 20's, and the upper levels are all quite cold.

I used the Pivotal maps for the qpf and temps, but their maps have the snowfall totals underdone as well on the GEFS.

That’s bc some members cut and not all qpf is snow. 

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s insNe for an ensemble mean a week out

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s insNe for an ensemble mean a week out

Those are the weenie maps from storm vista that are always 2-3x too high. The mean for the storm is 4-6”.. 

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has like Feb 1978, Feb 2013 potential.

If we get that type of storm 2 days before Christmas just wow

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not one for snow maps, but 5-7" on an ensemble mean at this range is nuts. basically doubled from 12z yesterday

That's the full duration of the storm.. Widespread 6"+ .. It's nice to see this as a coastal threat now, and not favoring interior. As you said this is a wild mean for day 7-8.. Only the big ones have a mean like this well in advance.. 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that maybe the deepest H5 low that I can recall seeing...at least at our latitude.