Sey-Mour Snow

70mb pressure gradient on the storm on the tenth over about 600-700 miles yikes 

1 minute ago, kazimirkai said:

Just another fun map to look at. They're definitely seeing the dreaded Hudson river valley effect. Hopefully I'm far enough west to avoid that but the EPS sees it as a big factor in this storm too

I just went cross eyed trying to read that 

Posting these to get an idea where the lean is and where most members favor on EPS ... 

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lighter but longer duration is the short term trend. 

I did notice that and I wouldn’t mind that . 

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like the ceiling with this is a moderate event. Lots of lbsw runs and south ticks 

Rather have a bit south of us before the possible ticks(s) north as these do many times.  6z GEFS look great for me and you as well as EPS. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This look reminds me some of Jan 2011…esp prior to the 1/12/11 storm. Big AK/Bering ridge with -PNA and big -NAO block. 

5 day mean .. weenie range shows potential for transient PNA ridges like Brooklyn was saying .. 

We (jdj) follow this all the time just to see if the EPS can find sniff out any snow threats and the last 2 years it’s been abysmal this is an absolutely loaded pattern on the eps with more threats beyond 1/7 and 1/10 that it’s sniffing out . Some huge 15 day outputs that I haven’t seen in a while.. 

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i think when you have a -NAO like that, you just need the -EPO, PNA can be neutral to slightly negative

a +PNA doesn't show up on the mean generally in those KU type patterns. it's just transient as the storms develop

Yes, also a tremendous amount of cold in the central U.S. and Great Lakes to me means that the favored storm track would be on the east coast 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good to me for day 6. Not amped like op which isn’t  a surprise, but good look.

Def speeding up too looks like Saturday evening start down here now.  Hopefully we can get some consensus in the next 24-48 hours  

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

(GGEM + GFS)/2

((GGEM+GFS)/2)^2

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Fringe south coast of what 

Delmarva, it scooted east with the confluence.  Just an op run all options still on table ..  

It still becomes a beast .. gets going later and will fringe south coast at best .. (edit doesn't even get north of Baltimore .. congrats DT this run 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It gets going later I guess. 

could be better for us in the long run IF the trend is later but still gets its act together, bc some guidance did have LBSW

Pretty massive jump SE and weaker on GFS so far

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op really sheared out that s/w. That was a hell of a jump from 12z. 

Amazing to see how erratic it has become .  Gfs almost looks more like the old euro now with its handling of this threat in the 7-8 day range 

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Didn’t you say you didn’t like the warmth in last nites EPS for the 7’th 

Last nights EPS was colder than 12z and a great hit for SNE and CNE 5-7" mean at this range is legit. Several monster hits as well, the lean is North rather than south though so several NNE big hits rather than the Mid-Atlantic, which is good at this range for this forum as it seems like the bigger risk is a whiff south rather than a messy mix.

Posted snow axis for just that storm so you can see where the lean is. 

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the longwave pattern isn’t going to change much but there’s some details that will matter a lot on both threats. For both, what happens to our north and east is going to affect things. 

What are you thinking for best analog for jan 7? Reminds me of a mini Jan 96 lite 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree ... this storm in the Euro has the option of being a broadly expansive mix event with snow going over to a rattling off the eaves and bouncing down windshields.   Freezing an option too but more likely a tall IP column.  

I'm saying this just purely because there is unusually ( what's new ) warm mass field south of the storm track, while the 500 mb trough isohyses remain open passing NW of the region.  A 700 mb warm intrusion isn't a bad idea here.  

it is not abundantly clear that the exertion/rearranging of the -NAO ( be grateful it's western limb or we could be cooked with NY state transit), but if that begins to exert during the week and the 500 mb squeezes more S than we ... there's time for that too -

Of course that’s an option on the table.  50/50 right now.  Glad we have something to track at least. 

The storm may ride straight through Hartford and rain to CNE. The storm may bury us all, and it may miss us to the south. But the temp anomalies Saturday have nothing to do with it. 

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

 

Oh really now?

 

Are you sure the high is gonna be 1030 at d7?  Are you sure the low is gonna be 985?  Are you sure the synoptic conditions aren't going to cause the storm to be suppressed? What about over amp?

 

Because these are factors I'm considering and you should be too if you could forecast worth a damn.

 

 

Dude you are adding some much other BS into this. I’m not saying it’s 100% going to snow.  Go back and read the whole thread.  I swear some of you lack reading comprehension and social skills. The map he posted has no value towards the storm l, and I just proved it. That is my ONLY argument period now get over it. 

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

 

So its entirely a function of the low levels...nothing to do with 700mb low track, phasing of multiple jet streams, timing of a deepening low into an antecedent marginal airmass?

 

The high helps, but this is far more detailed than just 'track'. 

 

You are making this conversation more complicated now. The conversation was only about his map showing temp anomalies next Saturday for a snowstorm on Sunday. That has no relevance on the outcome of the storm. 
 

I’ll play his game though.  Here’s the gfs temp anomalies next Saturday then the next day 10-25” of snow across much of that area. 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you are south of a 985mb low in this specific setup, you will snow

North you meant I believe.  But yes I agree , some dont understand meteorology it seems 

6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

The antecedent airmass being marginal is a legitimate aspect of forecasting this storm.  Not sure I understand this comment.

 

Modeling is fair game inside d7 as are the slight synoptic differences.

I have to respectfully disagree with you, the antecedent airmass has nothing to do with the precipitation outcome in this case with that synoptic setup. High pressure is in the perfect spot to funnel in cold air.  The messier solutions you see on the Euro are because of the fact that the European guidance hugs the coast .  It’s as simple as a favorable track will lock in the cold and most likely bring snow. 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS 

A perfect track for SNE, a few ticks south of 12z.. PA gets buried with 15-25”

Just now, jbenedet said:

There is no argument. 
 

You picked one map of two bc that fits your snow glass view.

Good luck. 

You are right you posted two maps with no context that mean absolutely nothing in regards to forecasting this threat just bc the pretty colors fit your view. 

Happy new year.