Sey-Mour Snow

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Was that the one that got wiped out by the mega cutter right before Christmas?

Yes Christmas eve night 

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Expected snowfall is different then actuals though but I could be mixing up my dates. 

Last second had some big jumps north we were thinking 12-18”+ but verified 10” most of southern CT. 

6z GEFS has so much spread the 50th percentile is virtually nothing for everyone..  Even amount of rainers, and good hits, but more whiffs.. actually like where we are now with gfs being south and euro being north..

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

And it if was cold and snowy, it would be wrong....these past 2 years have been unreal. I am ready for Spring, lol....can we just flush all of the remaining cold air over to the other side of the planet? 

On the less pessimistic side of things, hopefully something breaks right the second half of the month....

At least it trended better for Saturday . Low 60s hopefully 

What’s funny is the infamous weenie high after being “Nam’d” for lack of better words is not attainable nowadays in the 4-5 day range (which wasn’t always the case).  If that EURO run just dropped a 48” snow bomb across all of New England at day 5 it would do nothing for us bc we know it has almost no chance of verifying.  

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...very hard to gauge any kind of expectations right now. Just too much inconsistency. I wouldn't even put much stock into the ensembles right now either. 

I agree ensemble storm tracks have been extremely volatile this year.  Need to wait this one out until we get multiple cycles of consistency 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is nice for the interior 

It’s ok never phases in time just a pedestrian snow fall for CNE/NNE

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There are other maps to analyze besides snow maps. 

Anyways, here is the Euro at 120. Definite differences versus the GFs with both streams

Faster and less interaction no run to run continuity yet.  Much worse for most .  We will get something vastly different at 00z I assume 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. 
 

It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle. 

Ya I bet the fact that it comes out first is a big reason why its even looked at and talked about .. If it came out at the same time as GFS and Canadian I bet it would be forgotten.. Having it come out during the dead time can satisfy a weenies craving to get NAM'd or in this case i- CON'd pun intended

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Like I said yesterday. Something is brewing. But I feel like I know where this is heading. 

Same.. would feel great RT 2 north.. Still can go south as Will said, glancing over things slower seems it would favor south.. some of the bombs on EPS are faster and farther north..  Would be nice to get a regionwide event from Greenwich CT to Maine .. But that's asking a lot I know 

Damn! Some crazy amped members that would likely still be bombing out if this went out post 144

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

@AstronomyEnjoyer's favorite model (the ICONic) is settling in the batter's box, see ya in 45 minutes

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

LOL I can proudly say I've never had to refresh my webpage waiting for the ICON model to load.  Although I hear it's slightly better this winter.. @ORH_wxman what are your thoughts on the ICON's performance recently?

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

All 50 ens.

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Keep in mind that’s only half the storm bc 6z only goes out to 144

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

And me and @AstronomyEnjoyer been on this one since it was D16 XD


though now I want a hot dog with mayo...

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I've been on the time period since day 16.5.. but seriously that timeframe makes sense but I don't care what any op says until later next week.. Need a well timed PNA spike and the NAO to start decaying not overwhelming .. That time period may be SNE's best shot if the 12-13th does what I think it will 

Ensembles really like CNE and NNE on the 12-13th.. 

47 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

There is a legit chance we all double score just a few days later with a favorable NW trend

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Legit chance you get 10 weenies on that one .. It's day 12.. Need a legit PNA spike to bring something north as we've been saying for that timeframe..

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

stop cryin @Sey-Mour Snowyou still got 5.5" 

Meh .. 24” or bust 

LBSW on 18z 975 SE of BM ..Such a thread the needle .. it's actually mostly rain for south coast.. 

Deep interior favored on GEFS and EPS with this one.... for now..  Will be a ton of waffling around the next 6 days.. Definitely a thread the needle look with not much cold to be found, 6z gfs shows you how to get it done.  Will need a bomb with the perfect track to get a good event.   Some pretty big timing differences on GEFS and EPS anywhere from Monday to Thursday AM also about 25% of the members are really amped..  

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Pacific has gone to crap? Hmmm?  Last evening pacific looked great. 

Still looks fine, it’s a bit “troughier” out west but that’s what you need for the storms. Just don’t want the mega trough out in the PAC NW. 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is flatter than the op for the storm around the 13th.

If you take a look at the indies there’s  actually more like the op a ton of interior northeast hits and a few at the coast. 

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oh look, another storm with no cold and a brutal cutoff SOP

Verbatim there’s a ton of cold and a great airmass, it cuts west before transferring so the mid levels warm south of the pike and a ton of mixing. All we can take out of this run is that it has a juicy storm again 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet.
 

Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. 

Exactly plus with that subtropical moisture feed I think we will be fine. 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua

RAY : “He said Nashua and suppression” 

3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Nah, not the same person.

Impressive, family?