Sey-Mour Snow

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Stock up on groceries for the 6 hour storm lol

 

only 6 hours of my daily 20 hour fast.. People could use a break from the constant insulin spikes.. 

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if metfan can squeeze an advisory snowfall out of this then that bodes extremely well for the SW CT crew. 

Lets get Kevins mega band from SWCT to CT to RAY and many people are happy 

The EURO control is replacing the current EURO as the new operational later this year I believe.. So I've been looking at that as well. The control is always very close to the current OP especially inside day 6-7.. Since 18z op only went out to 90 here's what the control had at 18z for the rest of the storm. 

2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Another 100cm for Cape Breton? 

Verbatim its 40-70" widespread up there as this storm just occludes east of there and they get Kevins actual days and days of snow..

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If you look at H7 RH/Temps/winds you can see by 12z Tuesday your death band is probably NW CT to ORH to Ray and just north. But man this is flying. Probably only get a few hours in the meat of it. Look at where it is at hr 90 and then again at hr 102. 
 

Usually your best bet in these is where it first develops as it elongates and develops before it matures and pivots east. Could be quite the punch from 4a to 12p across the region. 

8 hours from start to finish lol 

700mb track is awful for southern CT and all of south coast, be wary of those snow maps.. Great run 84 north .. 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

ya exactly CT and pike south is favored on EPS for a plowable snow.. some are just a bit wary of those 10% way NW members ... 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at the clusters. 

Ya the bullseye is def over us on the MEAN most members jack this area.. The confusing part is the amped NW members are pike north hits which throws off the other maps.. CT is the favored location on the EPS as most of the members have 6"+ there.. The 12" + super amped members (10% of the members) are pike north.. 

To be fair to @Damage In Tolland euro does have this starting 7-10pm Monday for CT , GFS is 3-6am Tuesday..  It's about a 6 hour thump verbatim with some light snow on either side of the thump .. 

48 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

0z add Navy to the whiffs, too. wow concerns

As the kids say .  You are doing too much bro 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I have 4... 2-1-21, 1-27-22, 12-3-19 and 1-7-24

How about March 2019?

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That map has me at 13.5”, that was pretty close. I might have measured an inch more, but close enough. So it was substantially more than 8-10 here. Very good storm. 
 

Let’s see how we can get this one to play out for us?  

Hopeful as of now. Just looking at some stats with the guys we are at just 3 storms over 10” in the last 6 winters for this area. 

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I remember the storm. It was between 15-17" where I'm at in Plainville. So Wolfie's right.

Me and Runnaway had 8-10” then sleet raced north to the pike your area and Wolfie and a local max maybe ?. Most in CT had about 8-12” from that one with the jack in Hartford/litchfield county line of 17”. 

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We had substantially more than 10” here however.  

Ya looks like mostly 8-12” highest north west of 17” iso in Litchfield/ Hartford county line. 

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Was that the one that got wiped out by the mega cutter right before Christmas?

Yes Christmas eve night 

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Expected snowfall is different then actuals though but I could be mixing up my dates. 

Last second had some big jumps north we were thinking 12-18”+ but verified 10” most of southern CT. 

6z GEFS has so much spread the 50th percentile is virtually nothing for everyone..  Even amount of rainers, and good hits, but more whiffs.. actually like where we are now with gfs being south and euro being north..

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

And it if was cold and snowy, it would be wrong....these past 2 years have been unreal. I am ready for Spring, lol....can we just flush all of the remaining cold air over to the other side of the planet? 

On the less pessimistic side of things, hopefully something breaks right the second half of the month....

At least it trended better for Saturday . Low 60s hopefully 

What’s funny is the infamous weenie high after being “Nam’d” for lack of better words is not attainable nowadays in the 4-5 day range (which wasn’t always the case).  If that EURO run just dropped a 48” snow bomb across all of New England at day 5 it would do nothing for us bc we know it has almost no chance of verifying.  

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...very hard to gauge any kind of expectations right now. Just too much inconsistency. I wouldn't even put much stock into the ensembles right now either. 

I agree ensemble storm tracks have been extremely volatile this year.  Need to wait this one out until we get multiple cycles of consistency 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is nice for the interior 

It’s ok never phases in time just a pedestrian snow fall for CNE/NNE

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There are other maps to analyze besides snow maps. 

Anyways, here is the Euro at 120. Definite differences versus the GFs with both streams

Faster and less interaction no run to run continuity yet.  Much worse for most .  We will get something vastly different at 00z I assume 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. 
 

It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle. 

Ya I bet the fact that it comes out first is a big reason why its even looked at and talked about .. If it came out at the same time as GFS and Canadian I bet it would be forgotten.. Having it come out during the dead time can satisfy a weenies craving to get NAM'd or in this case i- CON'd pun intended

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Like I said yesterday. Something is brewing. But I feel like I know where this is heading. 

Same.. would feel great RT 2 north.. Still can go south as Will said, glancing over things slower seems it would favor south.. some of the bombs on EPS are faster and farther north..  Would be nice to get a regionwide event from Greenwich CT to Maine .. But that's asking a lot I know 

Damn! Some crazy amped members that would likely still be bombing out if this went out post 144