Sey-Mour Snow

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr trending warmer 

Been a horrible bust down here for HRRR, can’t be trusted with its epic fails the last two storms, it’s steady with weenie solutions for several runs then trends towards globals last few runs before go time. 

Snow sleet here since 7:30pm … 75% sleet all roads covered 34.5. 

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What a monster pattern. 

 

Damn old school maps haven’t seen those in awhile. 
 

congrats Dakotas on 18z gfs.  Going to be a lot of waffling until Monday probably.. 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thanks Sey-Mour ...

it's interesting that although the spread is large (geometrically), there members below 970 in that.  

Yeah, I didn't include these ensemble spread products because there's enough to already in that missive to send folks to their Sumatriptan

Here’s the GEFS 500mb anomaly 5 day mean from the 10th to 15th … pretty impressive. 
 

4 minutes ago, klw said:

Clown map of all clown maps:

 

Meh .. There's always one better.. We've had clown maps with 60-80" over the entire Northeast

GEFS mean track and snow axis looks good at this range.. To me this means there is just as good a chance for a coastal as there is for an inland runner. 

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SNE will be back to normal after this month

Need another 30-50” in some spots not happening james 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro has been very consistent.

Euro was late to the party with this. Gfs was first to catch on and have a cutter. However it was then too cold. Euro has been better the last few days. 

Enjoy the rain CT. 99% of CT will be above freezing for the duration of this. Not much to be excited about. We wait til next weekend. 

A lot of very snowy GEFS members 

I like Kuchera for warm mid levels and an idea of how the southern edge of snow pans out. Warming trends last 3 runs for CT more than anything. 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Anyone post a 6z eps clown 

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Current conditions: 

Mine is holding strong at Mount Seymour Snow. 

5.5” storm total and 10.0” on the season 

Thats some major cold

4.8" 

Thunder snow in Manhattan 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I might actually get warning snows out of this now...I was bracing for 3" 24 hours ago.

Good, it's much better when we have you guys out east in the party.. 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a great hit for CT. Probably widespread 6-8 there.

looks great widespread .7" qpf from the thump.. If we can get 12-13:1 ratios then its party on! 

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro going to bump up qpf a couple tics too like the other 12z guidance.

EURO really ramped up for CT , after it sniffed out the southward trend first, it's really been owned by the GFS in regards to precip output for this event , considering a cave 12-18 hours out.. 

Much better for the rest of SNE New England as well.. 

wrong thread 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas

Best run for all of SNE in a while. 

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

9” lollies best chance western CT hills above 600’ or so. Looks like a solid event WOR for once. 

I could see getting 6-8” by 8am.. then it compacts and settles but another 1-3” falls from the sky after that, my elevation will help with the after sunrise snow.  Have to brush up on official rules of measuring to accurately record that.. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam definitely came back down to earth but surprisingly more uniform.

3km nam says F U southern CT..