Sey-Mour Snow

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I would agree that in the back of our minds we be like holy mother of god. However, it does go a lot further than losing cell service. I remember back in 2011 we had that October snow event. We had severe tree damage and no power for 11 days. To be honest it was not fun, it was very costly for us personally as we lost a lot of trees in the yard and had a lot of damage. Damage. What I want that again knowing what would happen? No. But yes, there's that strange excitement Deep down..lol

Exactly. Also financially for business owners like myself I’d take a hit.
 

After that stretch of what seemed like an event that caused a week long power outage every year for 8 years in a row I invested in a whole house natural gas generator a few years back so I don’t have to worry about that.  Funny we haven’t had a long power outage since August 2020 got my generator that Fall. 

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I was getting caught up this morning and didn't see folks posted stuff. 

That positive anomaly up there appears to be getting more ominous with passing days.  It seems the GFS is just slightly too suppressive ( oper.), but if you loop the GGEM (0z) and the GEFs(06z) around the 22nd - Xmas, there is suggestion that some members allow trough mechanics to squeeze underneath that ( I'm not dissuaded by any GFS oper behavior being 'too amplified' with anything in that range as a matter of course)

I can't believe I'm about to say this given the forced feeding tube of shit we've intubated with over the last 2 weeks of guidance ... but, when that happens, 2 stream subsume type phasing opportunities enhance.  

It's not there ( if yet) ... but sending retrograding positive height anomalies N of any region leads to back ground numerical instability of said region.  That's just unavoidable.  It is what is.

Yes please. 

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nope. This was basically relegated to above 800’ last year. All those pics were my street . Every yard lost some kind of tree . I want something damaging and widespread that causes infrastructure problems 

All us weenies deep down whether we admit it or not would be in awe to see a 2” icestorm that knocks down everything causing millions of power outages for weeks (though after a day we’d b**ch bc we’d have no cell service). Just not the week before Christmas please.  

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z GFS actually funnels down a lot of cold at the sfc early next week and creates an icing problem even though it’s torched aloft. 

I saw that. Also I feel like we’d have some opportunities with a pattern like this 5 day mean around the holidays. 

Psych 101 class in session until the pattern shows signs of a flip in the 5-10 day range.  Until then 

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GGEM rips the tempest right thru heart of SNE knocking down whole forests on its way NNE.

Those 25 mph gusts are definitely going to loosen up some tree limbs. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of the members seem closer to elbow of the Cape vs the op track.

Theres about 3-4 miracle solutions in the EPS that change it to heavy snow in western New England and New York. 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Storms with origins that far south are usually warm especially with no antecedent cold air mass. I mean it’s already sub 980 by Myrtle beaches latitude. Looks tropical.  We got our wish and saw what happens when the northern stream phases still not cold enough, so ya looks like the only chance would be a triple phaser with that polar jet.  Onto the next one Christmas week… 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s all I can think about. Xmas songs where they’re all just ripping S+ . Meanwhile we’ve just completed one 4” rainer in 18 hours, gearing up for another yet this one even more cruel with a wound up nor’easter that drops rains to the slopes of Quebec 

 Chestnuts roasting under the December Sun, Pacific Jet ripping out your soul. 

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

How do people know what the “results” are going to be on January 5th? Or December 30th? 

I’ve been saying this for days.  We don’t, and even if the pattern isn’t great it can still snow in New England.  We’ve thread the needle many times before. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Antecedent airmass is junk so it would also have to cold advect too as it intenisifies. Not a lot of wiggle room. 

Thread the needle Christmas Miracle. It’s all we got.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice dong of a low there offshore.  

Euro is much closer now with the 18/19 storm.  Just need that northern stream to phase in. 

CMC finally catching onto the storm for the 18/19th strong southern branch rain storm that hooks into cape cod .. However, if that northern stream were to catch up and phase man what a bomb that would be. 

23 minutes ago, Layman said:

That's interesting.  Is there an amount threshold to determine what's considered "snow" for this?  For that matter, is there a generally understood number in the industry that's recognized as a minimum amount of actual snow?  I'm not sure if you're comment above implies that to people more in the know than I am with these things.  I just know if it's spitting snow here and not coating grass, that's not appreciable snow. (No kidding! )

I'd assume he looked at any accumulating snowfall .1" or greater. 

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

"punting to Jan" isn't really a good term for it. coastal SNE and south don't really do much in December. punting to Feb, on the other hand? that's an issue. don't expect that as of now, though

@The 4 Seasons was looking over some data and a rough look at it showed that no snow through January 1 is rare. Twice in the past 25 years at the CT shore.. Probably even more rare in the hills of southern CT and interior SNE in general . 

Hi res stuff is getting wild with in CT.
4-8” now .. of rain.. 

18z gfs much colder for the day 9 storm..  still rain for most but 1-2' of heavy wet snow for the deep interior.. wouldn't it be funny if we pull off a heavy wet snowstorm in the middle of our torch and unfavorable period.. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs really goes wild with that low Sunday night. Euro is rather mundane. 

33mb drop in 24 hours

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs.  But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so. 

All we need to do is get past the 5-10 day unfavorable pattern and we can sneak a snow event in at anytime.  

Some of the Debbie Downers in here are forgetting its December 8th.. How are we saying that the rest of the month is horrible and nothing until after Christmas the earliest? If your long range forecasting skills were that good, pretty sure you'd have an important job with NOAA.  For now we know that things are unfavorable in the next 5-10 days and thats about it.  Every piece of information that we have does in fact say that things slowly start to turn less hostile in the 10-15 and *edit* serviceable to possibly a good pattern in the 15-20.  Thats all we know for now.  Adding this part in, you don't need the perfect pattern to get snow post December 15th, all we need is to get rid of the hostile pattern. 

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

18z HRRR continues to look decent tomorrow out east for a very narrow area. A decent amount of 3km CAPE too. Could really rip locally somewhere.

Even some snow showers here we take what we can get for now. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know, I still didn’t see it on the ensembles. 

I’m saying the unfavorable look at the end of the ensembles is there on the weeklies too. Then the weeklies shift everything east to a more favorable pattern towards the holidays. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies still insistent on a flip near Christmas so we hope. 

Ya and it matches up with end of ensembles so it makes sense. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Still a Nina hangover look too. Not really seeing Nino driving yet. End of GEFS look like last December lol. 
 

 

Arguably worse without that monster -NAO