Sey-Mour Snow

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

sticking with my 4-8, despite what ALY and the clowns say, what say you? you do an update on the maps yet, I may have missed a few dozen pages here...

Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet. 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is that the entire event?

Pretty cold in 18z flash freeze is crazy for mass even gets down to ct this run 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah this timing is getting crazy quick. I just mentioned in my write up start of 7-9 PM...that's going to be a big fail 

Verbatim it’s like 3-4pm western ct and 6-7pm far eastern. 

For as far west and warm as hrrr is would still get 6- 10 here and be a pretty epic Saturday evening I’m down for that! Also instead of the heaviest snow while we are sleeping it’s now from 5pm to 11pm.

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal 

Lmao it almost goes up the Hudson before a last second push east 

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

The reality is the true storm track may actually be between both the Euro and GFS here. Not as close as the Euro and not further south like the GFS.

They are only about 5-10 miles apart by 12z Sunday 

Most guidance has a decent thump for all at least Saturday night.. Take what we can get.. Hopefully someone can cash in with Part 2..

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Well, you can't measure more frequently than 6 hour intervals if you want it to be legit....I adhered to that in March 2018 my 31" was still tossed.

Lol ya I mean to the average person (not us) those snow depth maps are pretty accurate bc they don’t measure until like hour 12+ probably.  But for us the reality probably falls in between the snow depth map and a Kuchera and even 10:1 sometimes, every event is different. 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it never means nothing....even if you are cold, snow will settle some...especially the more you have.

Real weenies never let it settle. Measure aggressively and often and slant stick when in Rome( I mean Tolland). 

7 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Thanks Jon, but in looking at that positive depth chart, my house is in the bullseye lol. My wife isn't going to like it, but I'll offer to take the kids....

Positive depth chart means nothing to me unless you are 33/34 degrees during daylight and or horrible growth . Take the risk for the real snow and stay in CT. 

3 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Trying to determine if I should stay in CT or head up to my weenie spot in southern VT. I was originally going to stay down here but it's hard to deny the north trend. Front-end looks more exciting in CT (but I'm on the southern edge currently and tainting looks likely), but that h850 easterly flow into VT at 2300' would probably do pretty well. I NEED SNOW in my life. Any suggestions?

Go to Canada. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes thanks 

Congrats on your paster finally .. Hoping you get a solid foot of wet snow and lose power for 7 days

Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice..  Man that's perfect heavy snow in our hood between 5-6pm goes to town until about 1am after about 6-12" 

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I like where I am in Springfield. I told my girlfriend this could be the biggest storm she's ever seen up here. 

If you read that quickly it can get really weird lmao 

Just now, dryslot said:

Lot of bitterness, Hate to see it.

Ya NAMs are heavy snow to Canada .. Enjoy it.  Always fun for a last second positive trend, sucks for us but we can handle it we are more prone and used to it.. 

Western NY with a nice surprise potentially too last minute thats like a 100+ mile shift west for them on guidance last several hours  .. as usual NAM is lost .. has a nipple low that tries to pull southeast off the delmarva 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

9z SREFs LFG

Yikes lets see what NAMmys do , that would be 4/4 hi res wagons north if they shoot north again.. or maybe the stablize things and head south 

Just another option on the table .. 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That is a very funky HRRR run. Quite a bit going on with some funky warm layers and looks like some dry or drier pockets mixed in. Luckily its the HRRR in the extended range  

lol ya exactly extremely funky convective look over CT

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How is it for SNE…

Still loading its an outlier now, its over Philly so take it for what it is, its way amped, earlier NW and warm.. LOL 850s are torched from onset in south ct  

FWIW 12z HRRR coming in hot, just sharing some new guidance, been trending amped along with other HI-RES , CNE crew will like the final outcome I bet. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sey-Less Snow

Hindsight is 20/20 lmao, you know you were excited about the potential for more in your location, knew it was a longshot here so we kept our 5-10" call .. We all discussed the potential of what we saw yesterday and that was to continue snow yesterday with a heavier band on the northern side where a ccb would prolong heavier snow.. As this storm trended north overnight the dry-slot cuts down on time of snow especially further south as well as the trailing wave not catching up now which takes off a few hours on the backend.. Several prominent meteorologists in here were entertaining the idea of higher totals as well as every CT outlet.. I'm glad we kept our map capped at 5-10" will just have to adjust the 2-5" north and west 10 miles.. We learn and we enjoy our first snowfall still. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You’ll be ok I think. 
 

Haven’t looked at much yet.

Morhping into a 4-6 hour thump Saturday night 8-10pm start 3-5am finish with mood snow Sunday AM for Connecticut, can still do quite well in those 4-6 hours with 1-2" rates just away from the shoreline.. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m pretty grounded in this one.

me and you in pretty similar spots in this one.. riding the line.. how are you feeling ?