Sey-Mour Snow

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wasn't it in like 2006? 

I have no memory of stuff like that. 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Feb 9 2007

Damn really?

Latest BDL inch of snow on record?  @CT Rain 

Run to run change from EPS in the 7-11 day period not what you want to see.  

I am liking the steady continued improvements in the EPS in the Pacific as Scott said.  I wish GEFS AND GEPS would stay consistent with that regard. 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. 

At least the massive cutter grinch storm is before Christmas 

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Seems like you were never interested in this period ahead .

What's not to like besides the PNA being negative ? 

 

No I am definitely excited with the prospects of the pattern.  Just cautiously optimistic for now until we actually get there. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How inspiring would you expect it to be for threats over 10 days out? The 10th-15th is fair game, but its more of a bonus period IMO.

13th is 8 days out. The pattern keeps on pushing back. That’s uninspiring… 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Outside of the GFS, not much supporting precip for 12/9-10. Id expect GFS to come considerably more suppressed today with that one. Still a chance there’s a compromise on models where we thread the needle and get a bit of snow but I’m expecting a whiff at this point.

Sig for 12/13-14 is pretty solid on ensemble guidance so we’ll just have to wait and see how that one evolves. 

rather uninspiring op and ensemble runs overnight ..  Hopefully 12z runs enhance the look for the 13/14th period.. 

Wow what a weenie run. All rain here verbatim on all 3 but so close to epic. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t kill the messenger, I’m just sayin’  

It’s better than looking worse! 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

people are gonna like that one lmao

Lol the 11-15 day has looked good for about 2 weeks now 

Just now, UnitedWx said:

True. If I were more north than I am...or still had snowmobiles I'd be seeing how NNE usually has more by now. But for this area we're pretty much on par. We had 1.5 inches a couple weeks back, but I never expect much before the holidays 

ya I'd imagine 75% of the average December snowfall is post Dec 15th.

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

But this is 2022! People just decide they want to define something differently and suddenly it has to be accepted en mass.... even in a weather forum 

Very true but 99% in this forum average several inches of December snowfall per season, much more in the mountains. 

It definitely seems as if the GEFS has been flip flopping all over the place with the Pacific and the EPS has been more consistent with the December 13-20 period as Will and BrooklynWx said.  One worry as will said, the GEFS was the first to nail the Dec 6-10 period.  Considering EPS consistency recently you'd like to side with the EPS for the December 13-20 period..  Definitely a better vibe to the 00z runs than 12z yesterday, lets see if we can do it again at 12z today and get closer to next weekend with a good pattern to look forward to.  The good pattern is still kind of being pushed back to post day 10, I really want that to move up to day 7/8..  One small not technical thing I follow is all 3 ensembles were very snowy in the 10-15 day for the first time all year especially interior SNE on north..  

From the CPC 

52 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Based on continuity and teleconnections derived from the well-agreed upon large positive 500-hPa height anomaly center near Greenland, the GEFS and Canadian ensemble means are preferred.

Something like 18z GEFS shows what I was talking about the good pattern keeps on getting pushed back. Just rinse and repeat trough in west and ridge in east through day 12+… 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which initially was Dec 5th. You can scroll back and see all the posts. 

Well yes Monday is December 5th and is next week.  It’s delayed about a week from the initial great pattern depiction about 2 weeks back.  But it quickly turned into a December 7-9 pattern change last weekend, however the past two days has now turned it into  December 13+.  I am a bit uneasy about the delay too, however if we can get this pattern into the 5-10 day range instead of the 10-15 day range I’d feel much better. 

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems to be ever so slowly “shifting” and falling apart 

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled as guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

The average NFL game actually has roughly 11 minutes of ball in play time. 

Most of the those 11 minutes are action packed with violence! Hence why it’s the best most popular sport in America. 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No shortage of rain on the 6z gfs 

Have a very wet holidays

Here’s where we stand. As others have said. EPS looks great and all but the GEFS has been leading the way in the Pacific .. So I take the EPS day 10-15 with a grain of salt. 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That look around Dec 12-13 is starting to get really good....not just general pattern-wise...but that's very threatening for a big system when you get the Rockies ridge popping coinciding with the Atlantic look there

 

Ya and this for a 5 day mean! 

Wow the eps is unreal! We take!