Sey-Mour Snow

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month

In regards to day 10-15 the GEFS have trended worse for sure over the past 24 hours. While GEPS and EPS look great. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pics?

 That’s all I got..  Idk why I can’t share actual images anymore 

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

The blend product certainly should grab attention...  Best to treat this as a hybrid tropical system... Using last week's storm as a general baseline for wind but increasing 15 to 20 mph over those numbers.

I’ve been using this product for our social media posts. It’s been consistently 55-65mph for CT. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

A year of flaccid wx

Ya been almost 2 years now without any good events in any season. Hopefully tomorrow is the start of more exciting times 

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Boring ? 

Whats been exciting despite a 3-4” rainstorm in December while we were sleeping last Sunday ? Hopefully tomorrow AM other than that nada? 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

probably quite a few wil have to 

If things play out the way we hope then yes it will be quite dangerous to drive around 6-8am with torrential rain and winds gusting 40-60mph.. 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder how many school districts will have to close tomorrow ?

Just Tolland.  I do hope we get some insane rain totals and high winds and some interesting weather.. this month has been extremely boring, and we are about 10-14 days away from tracking our first winter threat.. 

With another exciting Christmas time storm on our doorstep I leave you with my latest remix.  I’ll weenie myself for this one . 
 

It's beginning to look a lot like summer everywhere you go . Take a look at the rain and wind. The morning dew is glistening once again.  With heavy rain and no snow!  

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tons of rain for CT on nam. 

Ya wow 4-5.5”

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't worry until like January 20th, but that's just me...I wouldn't blame anyone for worrying in early Jan if nothing is imminent. 

Let's just start things off with a quick hitting classic new england 4-8" snow from a blossoming low pressure passing over the BM..  No ptype issues .. it's been forever since one of those.. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GFS is almost identical to other models. Right up the Henry Hudson.

Went east quite a bit 

Looks like the pattern will be supportive for snow events by the 27/28th. Until then we maybe get a few snow showers if we are lucky. 

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Warm cores don’t like to shift East . Remember that 

Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape.

Pretty much comes down to track. How far west will it go to bring in more instability.  All the western leaning guidance is windier. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss the clowns folks.

It's fun to post and scare the general public..  The best way to spread Christmas cheer is to post NAM clown maps for all to see and hear .. 

Seriously though looks like the best wind threat even on NAM is SE New England where they get some instability and a squall line.. The rest of us probably 45-55mph max gusts as usual..

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this cant be right 

Ya widespread winds 65-85 mph across New England on the 12z NAM wind clown maps.. 975 mb low cuts west of NYC 

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Euro playing catch up again to GFS . Big boy  coming in hot  

GFS is windier as well bc it has MSLP west of us

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Not really…what are you looking at? 

I believe he's looking at the beer cans from last night?

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

But the recent storm track correction for systems like this weekend was to the west and not south. The air mass for a few days after this strong system is only a little below normal  due to the mostly Pacific origin. So a weak clipper may end up further NW or sheared out due to the fast flow and not going to the south. Even if it did, a weak system will only pull in more mild Pacific air with less cooling effect than the storm early next week. 
 

New run trend was for warmer storm track

Old run colder track to our south

 

 

Can't attach images, however EPS has several low pressures south and east of us on Christmas Eve, in this scenario we'd get a northwest flow and much colder temperatures, that's all I'm saying.  Temperatures on Christmas day are 100% dependent on the flow and what side we are on of any approaching or departing storm.. 

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Christmas should be on the milder side but nothing too extreme compared to some recent years. The ensemble blend has mid 40s which is around a +3 to +4 in NYC. Highs could approach upper 40s to near 50° with a more defined low to our west which can be smoothed out by these ensemble means. 
 

And on the flip side and equally as likely - highs can be much colder than that or even below average if we are on the north or west side of a low pressure. Still 9-10 days out plenty of time for storm tracks to change.  Pretty much have to get one of these clippers to track south of us next Sunday or Monday for a cold Christmas and potentially one with flakes in the air.. 

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEM looks interesting. Like some of the EPS members on the trailing ULL. 
 

GFS is ridiculous in that it does that retrograde job and produces a bunch of snow/sleet/ice over the region in a long duration event next weekend. Selling that clown look. 

That low pressure tracks north of the Virgin Islands and curves up to New England just like a tropical cyclone. Been there a few runs now with that track. 

6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

A lot of our best storms are Miller Bs. Miller A usually is LBSW.

2/5/01, 12/9/05 (though that was better East of us), 1/12/11, and I think maybe 1/26/11, and of course 2/9/13 (Nemo) were all Miller Bs.

Ya we’ve gotten porked recently but our bread and butter is still B. 

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Funny, but Miller Bs are a problem down here.  The new surface low bombs at the baroclinic boundary that is the coast and forms the first big def band over NJ into the HV.  That band decays while a triple point forms, the new low takes over further east, and a new band forms for you guys.  Our best storms seem to be lucky As that that track just inside the BM.

Feb 2013?

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s she showing next week ?

Actually got a lot more interesting about 15 of the 51 members have light accumulating snow in SNE on the backside of the storm .. 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Really not sure what to think of it. I mean when you look at how 500mb evolves, the scenario is a plausible one, doesn't mean it's likely but at this stage you can't really discount anything. 

The PWAT anomalies are absolutely insane. 5+ SD across a large area

Makes sense with the tropical origins