Sey-Mour Snow

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

As you can see here Peak PNA has been waffling on eps and generally trending later. As of last Thursday Friday PNA ridge was supposed to peak this coming weekend. . So hopefully the ridge doesn’t get that can kicked again. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

Agree....ZERO consensus. 

EPS showed the same thing for Saturday 2 days ago!  All I’m saying is that we need multiple runs from multiple models to be in before I believe it. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

K...I'm tired,  I need to drop the mic.

We aren’t done yet though.  This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction. 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal

What I’m saying is that we said this same exact thing for this Saturday coming up and now look at it. It was just as good a signal as Monday and Tuesday now is.  A few of the great signals has had some sort of transient PNA ridge that turned out to be a fluke. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think people are traumatized by all of the seasonal can kicking. I highly doubt this signal phases...I think the larger issue will be precip type. 

Ya I get it. We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal now look at it. Storm very likely yes? Yes precip type will be a concern. Also track does it end up congrats Delmarva , congrats SNE or NNE? Also the tendency has been to weaken the signal on approach. 

ZERO continuity with ensembles or op runs.. We will know more by Monday (sarcasm).. There's no reason to take any model seriously until all models have the same idea for at least 2 runs in a row.. 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't feel as good in general in southern CT/RI, but that is just my opinion. 

I wouldn’t feel good anywhere with zero model continuity. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh, I thought the one you had above it in your first post was 0z. 
 

I still don’t think this is dead. And the Euro isn’t the dominating model anymore..

No sorry that was the 50th percentile and the mean each for 12z. The 50th percentile at 12z is much less than the mean, meaning that there are some snowy outliers skewing the mean. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually for my area it only went down an inch…and that’s a mean. For other areas yes it’s more. But that’s still not that bad for western CT. 

Here’s 00z

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't understand?

Mean is way down from 00z.. gfs last to the party again. 

41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let’s move the 0z euro 100mi east so we can all shake hands with our pants down. 

I’ll pass on the shaking hands but sure let’s move it east a bit .. 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looks like a meso vort amid the larger trough from the west moving in. So weird.

I've been noticing that, annoyingly weird seems like most of the lows the models are spinning up are like that .

Maybe the euro is broken and they should just re run it at 12z and see what solution it spits out this time?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love how the AEMATT crew AKA the KU orgy of the last 9 years are telling everyone else  (especially us WESTERN CT snow deprived weenies) how they are due for less snow. 

Fixed it lol 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The poor girls just wanna have fun

Last pile just melted from last week. 

47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Weenie run after weenie run for NH. I really don’t want a 40” pack in mid March. lol

pouring salt in the SNE weenie wounds lol 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 

Eps with a solid push east need another one. Still day 7-8 though. 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro!

Euro control!

Ya I know nice rain storm on the control next weekend for us. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr trending warmer 

Been a horrible bust down here for HRRR, can’t be trusted with its epic fails the last two storms, it’s steady with weenie solutions for several runs then trends towards globals last few runs before go time. 

Snow sleet here since 7:30pm … 75% sleet all roads covered 34.5. 

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What a monster pattern. 

 

Damn old school maps haven’t seen those in awhile. 
 

congrats Dakotas on 18z gfs.  Going to be a lot of waffling until Monday probably.. 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thanks Sey-Mour ...

it's interesting that although the spread is large (geometrically), there members below 970 in that.  

Yeah, I didn't include these ensemble spread products because there's enough to already in that missive to send folks to their Sumatriptan

Here’s the GEFS 500mb anomaly 5 day mean from the 10th to 15th … pretty impressive. 
 

4 minutes ago, klw said:

Clown map of all clown maps:

 

Meh .. There's always one better.. We've had clown maps with 60-80" over the entire Northeast