Sey-Mour Snow

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Could be one of those situations where it's relatively easy to cool to 32F if rates pick up enough.

Ya I’d like to see that heavier swath tick back south to encompass southern CT as well.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that’s Nam doing Nam stuff. It’s going to have trouble accumulating the first few hours I think. Even in hills 

Hrrr went north and 3km. We will see.. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol that’s 4-8” of heavy, wet tree snapping snow there. I have 1-3” out as my call. I guess it just might snow! 

You stole my snow lol 

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z guidance is beefing up and moved north with the axis of snow for Tuesday. The HRRR nam and 3km all like rt 2 south through central CT and then out east to SE MASS for a swath of 2-4” snow where it is cold enough .. down here in southern CT, we look to be a bit too warm and maybe the southern edge of heavier rates. However, the exact axis of the band has been waffling and this is a nowcast event so we track. 
 

 

Unfortunately places along the shore and valleys in southern CT look too warm for any accumulations which would go along with seasonal trends.  The 75 day accumulating snowless drought for @The 4 Seasons looks to continue. 

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Starts ripping in CT by midnight or so. Could be an interesting sensible wx shock…people grilling dinner at 55-60F in CT this evening to parachutes falling with several inches already OTG when they wake up. 

Other mesos continue to be a bit more tame but they still have it. More like 1-2” or so. 

I made a thread. 

18z guidance is beefing up and moved north with the axis of snow for Tuesday. The HRRR nam and 3km all like rt 2 south through central CT and then out east to SE MASS for a swath of 2-4” snow where it is cold enough .. down here in southern CT, we look to be a bit too warm and maybe the southern edge of heavier rates. However, the exact axis of the band has been waffling and this is a nowcast event so we track. 
 

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those hilly areas north of the Merritt might be a decent spot tomorrow over to Ginxy and N RI hills. 

Sey-mour snow land. Idk it’s going to be close here with temps but elevation will help. I’ll believe it tonight if more guidance confirms that narrow band of heavier precip. Looks like this could be a Prospect special about 10 miles NE of here has 1000’ elevation. 

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS actually looks centered over the DM for 2/28.

GEFS trended a bit better at 12z and GEPS worse.

Doesn’t mean much but 18z gfs is nice to look at for 2/28

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he was living in Cambridge in 2015….

CT is a tougher call. Was it great there in an absolute sense? Prob falls a little short unless we’re talking the northeast 1/3rd of the state. 
 

2012-13? I think this one would have to be considered great only because it had the best CT snowstorm in over 100 years (1888). It did have some other solid storms too like 12/29/12. 
 

2010-11 was a truly great winter in CT as well. Multiple big dogs with CT getting jackpots in multiple storms. 

Yes we’ve had many solid years of 60-80” around here in the past 20 years. 2010-11 stands out the most. 

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I’m considering this winter full atonement for the glory of 2015. As far as im concerned, the debt has been paid off and we enter next winter with a clean slate. 

What was 2015 in Hamden? Just a basic above average winter with no memorable snowstorms in the western half of the state. I know it was MUCH different in the eastern half. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One run lol. But man that block gets nuts on the EPS.

Nice. Better than backing down on the 00z trend. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ll take the EPS ebb and flow at 12z.

I’m only loaded to 240. Can we back up off the ledge from 00z? 

Might be a warm front in there. 50 degree spread across 150 miles. 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yay blocking 

 

SE ridge hooking up with NAO on all ensembles after day 12.

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Force shield of warmth in the northeast prevails. This yawner of a frontal wave didn’t stand a chance.

Cold anomalies? Not here. At least not yet…

 

 

 

 

Pretty solid 24 hour temperature change. 
From feeling like 60 Friday morning to more like 10-15 just 12-24 hours later will be a shock even though it’s not much below average. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need to elongate the vertical front a little more….

 

You and I have talked about this before…but if we got an equivalent of the 1888 setup in 2023, you wonder if someone could pull 60+ with the added moisture in the atmosphere compared to then when spots pulled 50. These are hypothetical scenarios but there is definitely a return rate on something like that…whether it’s 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 years it’s hard to say. 

Imagine the melts. 

1 minute ago, BrianW said:

GON 71

 

That was Wills call. CT shoreline torching widespread 67-71. 66 here. 

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@Sey-Mour Snow scared me out of my 70 call showing all those overcast graphics. 

Nah jk. It was really the lack of short term guidance support. *Nothing* came around to show this potential. 

 

 

Sorry that was just for those calling for 100% sunny skies.. it was more for down here with possible rain moving on after midday but that has been delayed.  it’s def cloudy but high clouds for now, temps having no problem rising. your call was spot on kudos. I’ll enjoy the 70ish temperatures. 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still have at least another couple hours of filtered sun....not sure if we crack 70F somewhere, but it should get close...esp down in interior SE CT where the sun looks the best right now.

Ya more clouds than I was hoping for but the rain should hold off til after 4-5pm.  Already some spots in nyc metro in the upper 60s. Mid 60s Fairfield county and central Rhode Island. 

PVD 64 and BOS 60 record highs already 

ISP JFK and BDR all broke their record highs by 9:30am lol

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just laughably too low this year; NAM just doesn't see the warmth even as it is happening. 

I mean, it gets worse -  as of 9 a.m., eyeballing it, just about all locations in New England are at or above the 12z NAM's highs for the day.

Mid 60s in southern Fairfield County already. 

EPS day 10-15 is pretty nice. Might have to punt next week down south for us but post next week is looking nicer. 

54 for the low yikes .. we 70?

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How can Boston be 1.1” below the all time low, and be #3?

I think it means there was another bad year in between those two numbers at number 2.