Sey-Mour Snow

FWIW 6z EPS and control both trended even more progressive for the 16th

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Anyone have an image of the EURO?  My free maps are garbage. 

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fascinating in the isn't the adjective that I'd use, but...

Verbatim there are many adjectives that aren't allowed on this board that I'd use if that verified .. 

In all seriousness.. That's a beast by the EURO and it seems locked in on a BEAST for the day 5.5-6.5 range.. Other guidance seems to be coming along to the idea.. We need to shift the whole trough 100 miles east or so.. Doable at this range .. Just a fascinating 500mb evolution on the EURO consistetly showing up.. 

4.1” of rain here 15”+ since Dec 1. not a tree limb to be found ..  Roads are clean snow is gone 52 and refreshing out. Doors open for 6am class like it’s September 10th! 

Nice pattern change instead of stemwinders through Michigan we get a 950mb Nor'easter with more rain.. Will be at 20" of rain this met winter and 3" of snow after next Tuesday LMAO 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s actually gusting good here. 

Widespread 50-60 already Delmarva New Jersey Long Island and cape .. but those are the usual suspects that we expected 

 Upton sees Long Island and coastal CT getting a bit brisk later 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Seemo made it sound like it was 3 systems. Two snowers and an ice storm. 
 

He’s probably posting in between fanny lunges.

lol exactly , members getting trapped under the bar while im spotting with my left hand and uploading the euro on my right hand 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh the cstl? That's probably more sleet with that track. My guess anyways. Cold below 850.

ya 925s are pretty cold, and rates would probably be too much .. its a 6-9 hour window .. it has a relatively large area from Virgina to BDL with .50 to 1.00" accretion lol 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

what ice storm?

Same storm snow to ice for west of 91 in SNE ... I know I didn't expect it either but low levels are frigid when 850s torch.. 

Back to Back Euro runs of 6-12" west of 91 then a monster ice storm.. 

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a good approach for the time frame in question - not intending to condescend but keep it from orbit for now...

I've also been discussing the 15th+ period as a time that fits the canonical teleconnector correlation/distribution, for cold eastern storm genesis over the eastern continent. 

These Lakes cutters in the foreground ... they may or may not be influenced by a steadily increasing -NAO exertion over time, but likely not in time to save the winter enthusiasts from a frustrating tour de fault in that regard.  

Really very impressed by the immense power suggestive by mere 2.5 day-long cycle between very deep and large winter cyclones through the Lakes.  Typically a 975 mb humdinger leads an interval of quiescence - not happening is intriguing.   An amazing hemisphere really...  You know, it's not impossible that someone between Chi town and Indy would receive upwards of 30" between the two events or more, a significant percentage of their seasonal cryo quota spanning 5 days.

But it doesn't end there... the third in the series - at least in so far as the Euro - is apparently responding to the forcing of said telecon projections in then running up/or off the EC with another very deep solution.  

...All these solutions ...there, here ...everywhere, are subjective to model attenuation-correction tendencies.  But ... sufficed it is to say, when they are all sub 980 and even sub 970 mb, they can shed the 20% and still be charming.

Anyway, long of the short - I'd be watching the 16-17th (still).   It's really not that far away. We've started threads for early monitoring over less impressive signals.  It may just be a matter of time before something significant through the 20th (even) comes over the ens horizon - if the 17th fails.

 

12z Euro has a 975 mb low over the thumb of Michigan at Midnight tonight then a Sub 970mb low approaching the same exact spot 72 hours later.. It has to be even more rare to track over the same exact locations at the strength.. 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably starts as snow for Kev?

100% will for him puking wet flakes at the hill before the gym on the Seymour Woodbridge line. Definitely more at 600’ then down here at 300’ .. earlier start time too 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s one hell of a snowstorm for us next Tuesday 

Euro has had it 3 runs in a row somwhere between the Hudson and the Benchmark.. Let's see if it holds onto it like these two cutters it hasn't budged on those stemwinders..

Thought GFS looked good (where we want it for Jan 15/16) CMC also.. Also CMC is very supressed for Friday compared to other guidance a legit snowstorm for most of New York Western PA and Northern New England 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

15-16 is the next sort of “threat.” Until then it’s the same crap we had prior to this recent storm. 

Ya it fits the pattern .. GFS has the threat as well .. 

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not a bad forecast! Wish I hit in some aspects a bit better though in the discussion. 

Best map I've seen yet 

Congrats northern mass! 3.0” here storm total winding down now to flurries. Heavy snow for 1 hour with my family during the day and great pics makes it an A storm for me. 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He legit might pull an 18 burger. 20 wouldn’t be a total shock if this afternoon overperforms there. He’s already over 12”. 
 

Passing 10” on winter hill in ORH…headed back out on the road in a bit…I’ll post conditions between ORH and Holliston for those in MA. Down in Holliston, it was very pasty overnight which held accumulations to about 4-5” at 6am but since then it’s been a lot more efficient with over 6” now. Hoping to crack 10 this afternoon. 

Enjoy, looks great there. Headed out for a hike with the fam. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jackpot for this storm is going to be from ORH county to Ray’s hood. They’re even already setting up excellent bands for round 2 

 

After Ray enjoys his 20” + jack we need a good Ole Fashion LBSW storm! 

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Radar needs to look better

Ya it shows promise then dies out. Only .2” so far from round two.. Hrrr has our window til 1-2pm for CT. 

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

What a shit sandwich this turned out to be. Congrats to those who cashed in though.

what did you end up with round 2 just can’t seem to get its act together for us here. 

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

RIP to the goat. 

C-2 S CT, 2-4 N CT still looks right on track. just was hoping for a feb 1 2015 type of blow up to happen with 6" in two hours. Similar type of CCB situation with the SLP rapidly deepening just SE of LI

It’s going to happen east of CT for sure. Radar looks great for them I’m going to live vicariously through Foxboro watching the pats/jets game while the sun peaks out here and my 2” slowly melts .. 

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ain’t happening James(RIP), enjoy out east.