Sey-Mour Snow

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Complete garbage by the CAMs lately. This stuff now, almost looks modeled better yesterday compared to now. They insist on killing it, but that ain't happening.

I agree, CAM's yesterday evening were more realistic than what they were this morning when they were dry 3 hours out lol

Looks like 9pm out 

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That stuff in southwest Connecticut working with some good parameters. Between 1,000-1,500 MUCAPE and some pretty good shear. Sfc instability is weak, but man if any cells can become surface rooted could see some large hail (plenty of hail CAPE) and damaging wind gusts. 

solid winds on velocity scans.. I wonder whats making it down to surface over Redding currently.. Thats about 20 minutes from here ... 

Moderate flash flood risk for all of the CT River Valley of New England 

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Is it sunnier Hartford area South and West causing instability? We still haven’t cleared out here in E CT from this mornings storms

No its been cloudy since 7am.. there was a bit of clearing between 5-7am.. 

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Sometimes forecasters have to just be honest... Lol... Today is already different than I expected and I'm not sure how it plays out?  Just going to watch short term trends for a bit longer...

Ya we have take off now wow. Radar has lit up even more. 

nasty squall line moving SW - NE towards SWCT

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Models give zero confidence in today. Some are totally dry. 

HRRR is totally dry here until tonight..Though 90% of CT had .5-1.5" overnight .. Only managed .06" overnight lol .. sprinklers on full force..

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

50s lol I have to laugh how defensive you are over the DP. I mean if you can't feel the obvious difference from the last week then I give up.

Feels amazing out their huge difference. Dew point hit down to 57 earlier it’s now 65 but feels great 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This area out to about WeHa ended up in Stein and I’m totally fine with that. After 5” last week. Just enough to wash in the fert I dropped . Got .65 and it never really poured hard 

Ya it was perfect here too about an inch for the grub ex and summer guard to soak in .. 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Okemo

 

Lower Hudson valley really getting hit bad. West Point getting crushed 10”+ already. 

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Data on that only goes back to 2019, but just the one high risk for New England. Until tomorrow.

Ya September 1 2021. Most of CT had a high risk. 

Just now, Hoth said:

Yeah, could be. I don't recall any others.

2 years ago we had one in CT at least. 

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The radar is basically stationary.  Some of those towns along Route 44 and Route 7 in Connecticut are going to get washed out.

6”+ Norfolk/Goshen in just 3 hours .. just back building and training scary situation unfolding for NW Litchfield county. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

HREF matches where hrrr has the heaviest too.. yikes ..

8 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I was in a wedding this weekend, but I've caught some bits and pieces of the modeling, and this seems to be quite the flooding event? I mean, you have to think this causes sine big issues somewhere. 

I think there will be isolated to scattered areas of significant flash flooding in CT but def not widespread.  Hrrr continues to advertise a training line of storms around daybreak in Western CT.

22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Approaching 3 in some spots of NW CT already

Ya that’s wild before the main line has even gotten there. There will easily be some huge totals in Litchfield county by tomorrow PM wouldn’t be surprised to see 10”+. 

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

12z HRRR would.

8” at MVL… A foot at Mansfield with the whole east slope all draining within 300 feet of my place.

Flexseal won’t stop that.

Nice 13” spot in Danbury 

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This will probably be your NE PA/ern NY into VT flooder give or take 50 miles either direction. 

I really hope it's not.. We can handle 2-4" but 4-8" on Sunday-Monday could be very bad given the recent 4-8" earlier this week.. I have to figure out some drainage for my patio pool ASAP had a foot of water laying around my pool fence/patio after Tuesday

If this happens … yikes 

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

By itself . Not much support

Gfs the exact same pretty much through day 10. Gfs is actually much more of a washout Sunday into Monday now than EURO so they flip flopped. 

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro is a soaker early next week

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Yep, Stein says no. He knows his rain...

 

Definitely a discrepancy on the GEFS and EPS 50th percentile qpf axis as the EPS is  East. Here’s both EPS and GEFS 50th percentile total precip ending Sunday evening (for weekend interests) and another ending Tuesday Evening (encompasses the event). 

After a slow start to this humid and wet pattern starting June 23rd. Ended up with 5.95” last 11 days with 3.97” coming the last 72 hours. We take should to wonders for lawns and gardens.