Sey-Mour Snow

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

18" is too high IMO.

Just a big IF .. in the case we get this to really slow down and nuke .. and that's most likely in your hood .. 

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems.

I seriously don't think any poster on here ever saw this as more than 6-12" with an isolated jack of 18 kinda storm.. This is still likely a 6-12" storm for the max zone with the potential for a 12-18" stripe if we get this to slow down and nuke somewhere near the cape which will allow the ccb to become quasi-stationary.. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS juiced up a tad. Does still seem like a little spread on Sunday. Judging by the mean.

3 run trend of the 500mb trough digging is noticeable since 00z on EPS valid sunday 12z

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

I thought the same thing... weird.. I think bc it's a bigger hit down here, less posters?

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice band thru CT hr72-78. 

Pretty bad run to run consistency from every piece of guidance now. If we can just get the gfs and euro to lock in now that would be great. 

Definitely a nod towards gfs with snow most of Sunday 

Thats a great run for CT 

Another tick se almost directly over the BM now at 989

Trailing vort noticeably stronger on euro early on lets see if that gives a gfs type solution (just wishcasting here I know)

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, of the two models(GFS and CMC),if I had to choose which one showed a monster solution at 48 hrs out, it would be the GFS over the Canadian every time. Certainly doesn’t mean it’s right. But it’s a much better model than the CMC. So there’s that.  
 

If the former King comes along in a few minutes, and does something similar to the GFS, then we might be heading towards something major.  If there are a ton of new posts when I check back at 1:45, that will be a very good sign. 

I agree, please EURO throw us a bone towards GFS.. 

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Been saying it since the get go this has a Ray jack written all over it.

He's due good for him.. Hope he gets a 20 spot .. Hopefully the West CT folks will be next this season..

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Where are you all seeing it. TT is slow.

Weenie run with 1.5-2.5" liquid in EMASS.. it's steady for CT just cold enough for most .

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM was pretty wild. Just nukes out near ACK.

wow a pounding for extreme east MASS all the way back to about you.. 

9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

 

As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

 

I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

 

A track just south of Long Island will generally bring mid level warmth to the south coast not much of a surprise ..  NAM is on the northern envelope right now,  its like 25 south of the twin forks.. RGEM similar track, more intense.. If we get that track locked in a lot of the south coast is cooked after a wet few inches..

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

May get my wet snow 10+ paster here if this is right 

That may be the payoff for us on the line .. 

idk why I'm analyzing the NAM but ya ENE had another 3 hours of 1-2" per hour on that NAM run great run for NE mass and south east new hampshire woulda been widespread 18-24"+ up there.. Sucks for southern CT but its the NAM would love to see GFS tick south 

Def a tick SE on 6z eps, love to see it, keep the ticks south coming for us southerners. Good luck everyone back to work til 12:30 will be watching for updates on the phone.. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re getting crazy bud…it was a blip run. 6z came back nicely on Euro, and GFS, and EPS.   I mean c’mon..you’re a meteorologist for god sakes. It would be like a cop panicking during an emergency situation…hold it together.  If 12z shats the bed, then you can tell us you told us so. But at 6z things to have stabilized. 

I get where you are coming from and I'm not concerned about inland CT. Just the shore to my hood before the horrible 00z euro the shore was already very borderline .. Most of our clients and following is on the immediate shore so we have more at stake.. The CT shore i can see 0-2" or 6"+ of paste .. But you inland guys are still looking great for 6"+ 

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan's boss Bob

Great map.. Along the lines I"m thinking right now 

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was a blip.  Calm down. 

Lol I knew that was coming.. Plenty of reason for caution down here.. I'm one of the furthest southwest posters on this forum.. Like I said NE CT still looks great.. SWCT much different story..

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tossed look at 6z 700 850 RH nada dry air. 0Z had this mysterious dry slot . 

ya it's 100% related to that dry slot .. 18z and 00z both had the dryslot

Looking at 00z euro soundings theres a warm layer at 800mb up to central CT.. the 6z euro was much colder aloft luckily ... let's hope that 00z run was a blip ..

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not seeing your panic at your spot. Ct shore always in peril with East wind but column is pretty damn cold.

I'm only 12 miles as the crow flies from the shore.. So I have a lot less wiggle room .. glad to see 6z euro beef up and tick se with the warming aloft .. also I think a lot of that warming comes with a potential dryslot, need to keep heavier rates in most of CT , I could see snow growth being putrid if it ticks back north.. 

Kevin and ginx area is still in a solid spot .. We cant take anymore north ticks for most of interior CT, CT shore is most likely cooked, my area is cooked next with one more tick.. Problem is GFS is the coldest and snowiest now for CT, and its been playing catch up .. Let's hope for a reverse trend at 12z .. 

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

yea they’re torched. We’ll see how today unfolds but the north move is real.  CNE and even NNE sitting back smilin…

We need the tics SE starting 12z or its game over.