Sey-Mour Snow

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Boring ? 

Whats been exciting despite a 3-4” rainstorm in December while we were sleeping last Sunday ? Hopefully tomorrow AM other than that nada? 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

probably quite a few wil have to 

If things play out the way we hope then yes it will be quite dangerous to drive around 6-8am with torrential rain and winds gusting 40-60mph.. 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder how many school districts will have to close tomorrow ?

Just Tolland.  I do hope we get some insane rain totals and high winds and some interesting weather.. this month has been extremely boring, and we are about 10-14 days away from tracking our first winter threat.. 

With another exciting Christmas time storm on our doorstep I leave you with my latest remix.  I’ll weenie myself for this one . 
 

It's beginning to look a lot like summer everywhere you go . Take a look at the rain and wind. The morning dew is glistening once again.  With heavy rain and no snow!  

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tons of rain for CT on nam. 

Ya wow 4-5.5”

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't worry until like January 20th, but that's just me...I wouldn't blame anyone for worrying in early Jan if nothing is imminent. 

Let's just start things off with a quick hitting classic new england 4-8" snow from a blossoming low pressure passing over the BM..  No ptype issues .. it's been forever since one of those.. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GFS is almost identical to other models. Right up the Henry Hudson.

Went east quite a bit 

Looks like the pattern will be supportive for snow events by the 27/28th. Until then we maybe get a few snow showers if we are lucky. 

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Warm cores don’t like to shift East . Remember that 

Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape.

Pretty much comes down to track. How far west will it go to bring in more instability.  All the western leaning guidance is windier. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss the clowns folks.

It's fun to post and scare the general public..  The best way to spread Christmas cheer is to post NAM clown maps for all to see and hear .. 

Seriously though looks like the best wind threat even on NAM is SE New England where they get some instability and a squall line.. The rest of us probably 45-55mph max gusts as usual..

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this cant be right 

Ya widespread winds 65-85 mph across New England on the 12z NAM wind clown maps.. 975 mb low cuts west of NYC 

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Euro playing catch up again to GFS . Big boy  coming in hot  

GFS is windier as well bc it has MSLP west of us

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Not really…what are you looking at? 

I believe he's looking at the beer cans from last night?

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

But the recent storm track correction for systems like this weekend was to the west and not south. The air mass for a few days after this strong system is only a little below normal  due to the mostly Pacific origin. So a weak clipper may end up further NW or sheared out due to the fast flow and not going to the south. Even if it did, a weak system will only pull in more mild Pacific air with less cooling effect than the storm early next week. 
 

New run trend was for warmer storm track

Old run colder track to our south

 

 

Can't attach images, however EPS has several low pressures south and east of us on Christmas Eve, in this scenario we'd get a northwest flow and much colder temperatures, that's all I'm saying.  Temperatures on Christmas day are 100% dependent on the flow and what side we are on of any approaching or departing storm.. 

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Christmas should be on the milder side but nothing too extreme compared to some recent years. The ensemble blend has mid 40s which is around a +3 to +4 in NYC. Highs could approach upper 40s to near 50° with a more defined low to our west which can be smoothed out by these ensemble means. 
 

And on the flip side and equally as likely - highs can be much colder than that or even below average if we are on the north or west side of a low pressure. Still 9-10 days out plenty of time for storm tracks to change.  Pretty much have to get one of these clippers to track south of us next Sunday or Monday for a cold Christmas and potentially one with flakes in the air.. 

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEM looks interesting. Like some of the EPS members on the trailing ULL. 
 

GFS is ridiculous in that it does that retrograde job and produces a bunch of snow/sleet/ice over the region in a long duration event next weekend. Selling that clown look. 

That low pressure tracks north of the Virgin Islands and curves up to New England just like a tropical cyclone. Been there a few runs now with that track. 

6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

A lot of our best storms are Miller Bs. Miller A usually is LBSW.

2/5/01, 12/9/05 (though that was better East of us), 1/12/11, and I think maybe 1/26/11, and of course 2/9/13 (Nemo) were all Miller Bs.

Ya we’ve gotten porked recently but our bread and butter is still B. 

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Funny, but Miller Bs are a problem down here.  The new surface low bombs at the baroclinic boundary that is the coast and forms the first big def band over NJ into the HV.  That band decays while a triple point forms, the new low takes over further east, and a new band forms for you guys.  Our best storms seem to be lucky As that that track just inside the BM.

Feb 2013?

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s she showing next week ?

Actually got a lot more interesting about 15 of the 51 members have light accumulating snow in SNE on the backside of the storm .. 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Really not sure what to think of it. I mean when you look at how 500mb evolves, the scenario is a plausible one, doesn't mean it's likely but at this stage you can't really discount anything. 

The PWAT anomalies are absolutely insane. 5+ SD across a large area

Makes sense with the tropical origins  

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It really sucks we don't have a better supply source to drain in colder air. That is going to be a wall of precip given how intense the WAA is going to be. Sucks we also can't drive the southern stream system offshore a bit more with the north stream energy phasing in. I hope we can get something like this next month.

2nd impulse actually drops a wide swath of 2-5” of snow for the deep interior . That’s new. And a third wave drops more snow maybe a few inches for all . Weirdest storm evolution ever. From tropical storm to a few inches of snow. 

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve experienced Oct 11 power outages and the May 18 EF1 destruction and power outages. It’s not fun at all dude. It just isn’t. Take your weenie out of your mouth and understand some of us prefer livelihood over a some brief destruction. 

You didn’t mention seeing a 2” ice storm though. Oct ‘11 was snow and May ‘18 was wind.  Once we see the 2” ice storm then we can put it to rest finally. 

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I would agree that in the back of our minds we be like holy mother of god. However, it does go a lot further than losing cell service. I remember back in 2011 we had that October snow event. We had severe tree damage and no power for 11 days. To be honest it was not fun, it was very costly for us personally as we lost a lot of trees in the yard and had a lot of damage. Damage. What I want that again knowing what would happen? No. But yes, there's that strange excitement Deep down..lol

Exactly. Also financially for business owners like myself I’d take a hit.
 

After that stretch of what seemed like an event that caused a week long power outage every year for 8 years in a row I invested in a whole house natural gas generator a few years back so I don’t have to worry about that.  Funny we haven’t had a long power outage since August 2020 got my generator that Fall. 

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I was getting caught up this morning and didn't see folks posted stuff. 

That positive anomaly up there appears to be getting more ominous with passing days.  It seems the GFS is just slightly too suppressive ( oper.), but if you loop the GGEM (0z) and the GEFs(06z) around the 22nd - Xmas, there is suggestion that some members allow trough mechanics to squeeze underneath that ( I'm not dissuaded by any GFS oper behavior being 'too amplified' with anything in that range as a matter of course)

I can't believe I'm about to say this given the forced feeding tube of shit we've intubated with over the last 2 weeks of guidance ... but, when that happens, 2 stream subsume type phasing opportunities enhance.  

It's not there ( if yet) ... but sending retrograding positive height anomalies N of any region leads to back ground numerical instability of said region.  That's just unavoidable.  It is what is.

Yes please.