Sey-Mour Snow

NAM cut back for the 4th consecutive run after the nice 00z last night.

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looked a bit SE of 12z

 

 

On weatherbell when you click on the compare to 12z button, 18z looks a good bit Nw of 12z.

It’s gotta be drunk lol

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Isn’t it D6?

Starts midday Monday so day 5?

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Amazing how much the GFS trended south in the past 36-48h....got it's ass totally whipped by the Euro in this one from D4ish unlike the last event. This is why we don't de-emphasize the Euro too much...esp when it's not totally on an island.

True and every single person on here knew it was 100% wrong. It was late picking it up, in fact it didn’t pick it up until euro let it go lol.. Sad performance by gfs. 

Seems like guidance is coming into agreement on some snow making it into SW areas Friday PM into Saturday AM with temps just cold enough and the bulk of it coming after sunset.  Some areas may be able to sneak in an advisory snowfall.   Something to track until Monday... 

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would prefer starting a new thread for that altogether...

This wasn't intended to storm-specific effort - if folks need to allow this one to scroll that's fine. It seems to have made the points that it was intended for. 

Makes sense. I’ll start a new one. Good calls as always Tip with this thread.

3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

And 5-10 will likely disappear on the ground about three HOURS later 

Fixed your post. 

@ORH_wxman can we change this thread to Friday PM into Saturday snow threat for SW zones? Mostly to avoid confusion between the two threats. 

EPS has some big hits for everyone .. about 2" for SWCT on the mean for the weekend the rest is Monday Tuesday.. 

We are now getting within day 5 on todays runs with starting impacts and redevelopment off the coast.. Storm likely somewhere.. Hopefully we can start zoning in on a general idea over the next 24 hours of runs.. 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

EPS snow probabilities are decidedly less hugger than the Op though.

More classic nor’easter snow distribution.

1-2” of that is from Saturday in SNE.  Here is just next week. Solid look , more mixing potential south. 

50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whaaa   lol

I really have only started 3 ...maybe 4 threads this whole season.  One covered an event that resulted in a N/A historic bomb.  The other was the snow storm that just impacted parts of the forum .. .and now this one,.  

I think the winter its self was cooked from the start.  Not many reasons to start threads.

I personally enjoy when you start a thread.  Especially when you get excited for an index scale event.  There’s usually a major storm that forms, can’t help it if we don’t get the heavy snow axis from that far in advance. It’s worth the track! 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

h5 looks explosive but complicated. I don’t care what the end result is at d7.

Ya just drastically different from last run. 

Not even a storm on GFS for next week lol .. the trend of the year one model is in and the other isn't , then when the other model jumps on board, the model that had it all along jumps off ship and ends up being exactly right that run.. 

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z EPS today was most impressive yet IMO...intensified signal.

Agree for the Monday threat it’s now 3 runs in a row check out this control run lol @RUNNAWAYICEBERG special 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the Saturday signal persisted to this degree for a full 24 hours...I remember I blogged about it early that AM, and it had faded by 12z that day.

But fine....we clearly disagree.

 

Correct it showed a massive hit for 1 run. But still solid for 3-4 runs. Let’s see just give us one storm and end this winter. 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

As you can see here Peak PNA has been waffling on eps and generally trending later. As of last Thursday Friday PNA ridge was supposed to peak this coming weekend. . So hopefully the ridge doesn’t get that can kicked again. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

Agree....ZERO consensus. 

EPS showed the same thing for Saturday 2 days ago!  All I’m saying is that we need multiple runs from multiple models to be in before I believe it. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

K...I'm tired,  I need to drop the mic.

We aren’t done yet though.  This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction. 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal

What I’m saying is that we said this same exact thing for this Saturday coming up and now look at it. It was just as good a signal as Monday and Tuesday now is.  A few of the great signals has had some sort of transient PNA ridge that turned out to be a fluke. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think people are traumatized by all of the seasonal can kicking. I highly doubt this signal phases...I think the larger issue will be precip type. 

Ya I get it. We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal now look at it. Storm very likely yes? Yes precip type will be a concern. Also track does it end up congrats Delmarva , congrats SNE or NNE? Also the tendency has been to weaken the signal on approach. 

ZERO continuity with ensembles or op runs.. We will know more by Monday (sarcasm).. There's no reason to take any model seriously until all models have the same idea for at least 2 runs in a row.. 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't feel as good in general in southern CT/RI, but that is just my opinion. 

I wouldn’t feel good anywhere with zero model continuity.