Sey-Mour Snow

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

925 temps are -2C during that crazy CCB so that is definitely going to be snow. But clearly it’s the type of thing where good accumulations would be rate-dependent. Esp lower elevations. 
 

Im fairly skeptical on a euro type evolution but we’ll see. 

Ya 925 is like +2 just before “changeover” here and gets down to 0 to -1C

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That EURO run was disgusting

 

Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The short term mesos (HRRR/RAP) are really flat with tomorrow. Kind of weird as they are often amped on coastal systems. 

What do you think about surface temps even up in Mass they are warm? 

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

the la-la land 300hr gfs has a miller-b type system, actually

Ya it’s just funny how it’s still rain at the coast with that set up lol 

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs unloads the arctic hounds  next weekend 

Perfectly timed in between storms. Cold and dry. Then the cold exits just ahead of the next rain maker. 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I had fun trolling, but it does suck to see the rev so down and out 

Barely a coating for us in CT since Dec 11, that will do it to anyone. We’ve become angry, bitter, and pessimistic. Even an inch here and there would change the mood, get to fire up the snow blower, shoveling up some six inch driveway piles off an inch of snow while your neighbor lets it melt by noon goes a long way to warm the snow weenies winter heart. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday toast. Wednesday could be decent in the interior before any flip to rain.

Ya agree and me and him are def not interior lol I flip right after nyc on these setups 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We had a biggie on 2/9/17. 12-18" with TSSN. A couple of other ones on either side.

I remember that now great storm with a lot of thunder snow. I was live on air storm coverage and had to rush out as my wife passed out and was pregnant that was a wild ride on the Merritt. 

. 

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

how do you know that they'll be rain though? the boundary could easily set up south towards the MA if there's a deep enough cold press from the TPV. this is what some of the ensemble members are presenting as a possibility

I’m talking about nyc metro and southern SNE areas for Monday and Wednesday storms. There’s a 2-4” mean there but consensus of now is rain or a quick slushy inch to rain. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Early Feb 2017 pattern.

 

How was that I have the memory of a 90 year old man. 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk, the ensemble means look as good for snowfall as they have all winter, pretty much

this is quite impressive at this range. shows that modeling is beginning to pick up on events with a decent amount of agreement

It does look good for that stretch this year lol just not as good as the 15 day that is skewed by two events that will probably be rain 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's a 10 day mean though... it wouldn't be able to pick up the transient arctic cold that a TPV displacement would bring

Looks like that comes in just after this map. I hope you are right. I don’t like seeing a mean that warm Jan 27-31. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That looks like an overrunning thing like the op showed. In reality it's probably more of a boundary that separates cold air and warm air very close by. Might be oranges at H5, but srfc temps would be colder. Now where is that boundary? Your guess is a good as mine.

For now looks warm at surface let’s see where it sets up.. 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now perhaps after that date it could get ugly, but that pattern would work. 

what do you think about the mini torch on eps Jan 27-31? If it's ugly after that leaves us with a 3-4 day window lol 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm pretty confident that you guys will see legit events through the first week of February. these means are impressive 

 

For CNE and NNE yes they should be excited however most of that is from the next two storms and about 3-6" from today, then I'm sure they will clean up with some upslope and clippers.. Monday's storm looks like CNE - Wednesday NNE.. 

For SNE most of that is a front end dump south and some from today and some from next Wednesday in Mass, next Wednesday also as of now most likely may not be much more than an inch or so then rain unless we really trend this east.. From my area down to you we are really in trouble, may have to wait until post 2/1 as there is not much cold except directly after Wednesday's storm and that promises to be a quick cold and dry shot. 

It's not too cold at all surprisingly behind the Wednesday storm.. Heres the 5 day anomaly behind the storm.. Seems to wait til days 11-15 to get some real cold in here and we know all about that this year.  Also the 7 day snow after Wednesday, not much.. 

Getting some good echoes over western ct. Good thing it’s 41 and raining. 

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So.. what's confusing is they are calling for temps in the 30's then into the 20's for highs by next weekend. If the garbage high is retreating.. than how are we getting colder after the storm next Wednesday time frame? I really am hating this Winter. Lol

Cold air will be pulled in behind the storm for a few days to end next week before we turn mild days 10-15 from the SE ridge flex. 

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Coastal SNE probably sits this year out. We look past 12/25/23

Fixed it for you. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wtf

i’m looking at the synoptic charts and I’m not sure I see how it’s going to snow anywhere close to that much south east of about an Albany to Fryeburg Maine line

The events are depicted here look like they’re moving too fast with shredded out ptypes and amounts

100% agree. Those clown maps are giving the desperate weenies false hope. With a high retreating that fast on Wednesday PM, and a garbage air mass to begin with, there’s no way 3-6” is falling south of the pike. And Mondays 1-3” forget about it. 

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Euro got a lot snowier this run especially for the second threat. It does still change to rain eventually for a lot of us but there is much more front end now. If the other guidance starts trending towards an SWFE we might have to start talking about an area of sleet and ice south of the pike before the dry slot.

Sure going from a 1" to 2" front end dump then 50s and rain is a whole lot better.. 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

This season gonna blow away 19-20, and even kill 11-12 as the king of the Rats. This one is almost comical now. Raleigh Durham type snow totals for the season. I’m At 4.3” so far lmao. Can we stay under 10” for the season?  Let’s go for the ultimate Rat. 

2.9" here.. worst season ever was 16" for me.. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think it’s a full blown Rat. I think I’ll be heading up to northern Maine middle of next week…they’ll be buried. I’ll get my fill  up there.  Nothing happening here.
 

Where’s the nice look we’ve been seeing? Does it set in after the 26th? 

The great pattern will end up being a cold shot behind that storm.. Odds are its cold and dry for a few days before the deep trough sets up in the west again.. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 25th on GFS almost looks like today's storm.

CT torches on that run lol persistence wins.. 

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

groundhog day?

We are going to need a bigger boat south of the pike.. 

#wearegoingtoneedabiggerboat2022-2023