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Sey-Mour Snow

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    Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

    in New England

    Posted

    Trailing vort noticeably stronger on euro early on lets see if that gives a gfs type solution (just wishcasting here I know)

     

    3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

    Well, of the two models(GFS and CMC),if I had to choose which one showed a monster solution at 48 hrs out, it would be the GFS over the Canadian every time. Certainly doesn’t mean it’s right. But it’s a much better model than the CMC. So there’s that.  
     

    If the former King comes along in a few minutes, and does something similar to the GFS, then we might be heading towards something major.  If there are a ton of new posts when I check back at 1:45, that will be a very good sign. 

    I agree, please EURO throw us a bone towards GFS.. 

    • Like 2

    Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

    in New England

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

    Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

     

    As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

     

    I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

     

    A track just south of Long Island will generally bring mid level warmth to the south coast not much of a surprise ..  NAM is on the northern envelope right now,  its like 25 south of the twin forks.. RGEM similar track, more intense.. If we get that track locked in a lot of the south coast is cooked after a wet few inches..

    Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

    You’re getting crazy bud…it was a blip run. 6z came back nicely on Euro, and GFS, and EPS.   I mean c’mon..you’re a meteorologist for god sakes. It would be like a cop panicking during an emergency situation…hold it together.  If 12z shats the bed, then you can tell us you told us so. But at 6z things to have stabilized. 

    I get where you are coming from and I'm not concerned about inland CT. Just the shore to my hood before the horrible 00z euro the shore was already very borderline .. Most of our clients and following is on the immediate shore so we have more at stake.. The CT shore i can see 0-2" or 6"+ of paste .. But you inland guys are still looking great for 6"+ 

    • Like 3

    Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

    in New England

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    Not seeing your panic at your spot. Ct shore always in peril with East wind but column is pretty damn cold.

    I'm only 12 miles as the crow flies from the shore.. So I have a lot less wiggle room .. glad to see 6z euro beef up and tick se with the warming aloft .. also I think a lot of that warming comes with a potential dryslot, need to keep heavier rates in most of CT , I could see snow growth being putrid if it ticks back north.. 

    • Like 1
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