Sey-Mour Snow

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Incorrect , huge QPF cutoff north of LWM 

 

thats not a dryslot , its the northern extent of the precip shield , dryslot is when the wcb moves through and precip shuts off .. low snow totals are bc its warm .. 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

no dryslots its just rain lol 

It's consistently been warm cant ignore it its a few inches of snow for the favored up in areas with a uniform soaking of rain up to 1.5" of rain south of the pike 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm always a candidate for those.

Post it.

no dryslots its just rain lol 

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have a crazy stat on this.. Tallying it up

In the last 5 full winter months DJF and DJ.. assuming no snow and 1" more of rain this month.. Just shy of 40" of rain here and 16.4" of snow in the last 5 full winter months 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Fresh from the still  

Southern CT looks cooked. Even the good runs are awful there. BDR is at about 39% of normal DJ snowfall and 179% of normal DJ precipitation.  

I have a crazy stat on this.. Tallying it up

If NAM verified RAY would have to open up a Mental Health clinic for us in the CT crew .. I'd go mental if that verfied .

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mets have it easy thesedays…keep clothes on and forecast the shittiest outcome. 

Just imagine if it was the opposite , the mood in here would be epic.. Tanning the napes outside in 60 degree sun while awaiting  Kevins dream storm Sunday of 12" of heavy wet snow sticking to everything .. But we can't have nice things .. til next time 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahh…the last minute shifts screwed our warm day. 

funny now that you say this .. I called this with All snow earlier in the week worst case scenario would verify .. Today would trend south and screw up our 65 degree day .. and Sunday would trend north and screw up our accumulating snow .. 

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro was on crack. 

it was actually pretty nice 55-60 over most of the tri-state yesterday 57 here .. Euro had today warm sectored and sunny .. today's storm just trended south (65-75 in DC Baltimore and Philly) if not it would have been mild as well 

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably take 1/2 to may 2/3rds of that 06z Euro snow product there ... No qualms with 'where' ... but 10::1 seems a stretch in these thermals

Yes, this seems much more realistic to me .. the snow in NNE is from today .. matches up with our map pretty well too ..

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Well that was one way to deflate things this morning . 

again you still look fine, I'm just "deflating" me and Scott and the south coast lmao 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am really looking forward to this one. Off time for it in mid January . Hopefully it continues to sink south and collapses to coast 

It's been trending north not south, I don't see how that stops.. Coast has absolutely no chance at anything.. This is well inland north of 84 and/or elevation IMO .. 

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A thumping paster is coming. Finally. 

congrats , might rent a wagon to go north so I can car pool the southern weenies up to your hood so we can see some actual snow.. 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Exactly. 2-4” along 84 is about right but any more wagons north and it’s a violent goodbye. 

Ya I’m still leaning goodbye lol .. maybe we will catch a bone and it can be a tick or two south. I’ll check back in tomorrow. 

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Anyone have the spiffy Euro probability maps?

Pretty low odds of you matching last March 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re going to need elevation to get snow to begin 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah like 5000’

Ya usually 500' + gets it done to see a big difference around here.. Then I notice another uptick around 1000'

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s warm. Looks like the cmc. Toss the clowns. More like 2-4” along 84 in wct. 

I wouldn't toss the clowns verbatim 84 north .. It's like 1-2" rates for a few hours 32-33 degrees .. But it's the euro and it's 18z that won't verify so who cares lol just analyzing for fun 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is barely 0C at 850 near the MA border at hr 78. Sell the clowns.

About Hartford north stays isothermal 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is barely 0C at 850 near the MA border at hr 78. Sell the clowns.

I know I mentioned that earlier it's +1 over most of CT 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You just need to treat the OP as an ensemble member until within like 24 hours....I wonder if all of the enhanced data assimilation and resolution has improved/increased dispersiveness....ie the ensemble mean is better at calling BS on the OP.

The EPS has been pretty jumpy too for an ensemble.. Our first storm of the year when you got 18" .. It had my area in the 8-10" zone right up until game-time until the rug got pulled out and everything shifted north.. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried  to explain today . You folks lost all sense of reality 

I still believe nothing until we get multi guidance agreement .. rain / snow / shredded mess all still on table.. Although your spot in NE CT at 1000' has the most wiggle room and is pretty likely to see plowable snow 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew that 12z run was full of shit.

Dude wtf is going on with the EURO ... I mean it actually matches up with GFS decently now .. 18z GFS and EURO have a predawn snow start time Sunday for CT lol no one is expecting that .. I feel like that maximizes the cold and snow potential in CT because temps don't rise into the upper 30s like originally forecast .. rather they are 32-33 when precip moves in 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol I thought this was a Sunday night into Monday deal? 

ya wild has a band of 1"+ per hour heavy wet snow pre dawn Sunday - It's acting like the NAM with these swings in sensible weather and its only 60-72 hours out as well .. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent event for interior on 18z euro though the midlevels are very marginal early on in CT before they crash. 
 

It would still be nice to actually link the WCB and CCB stuff…the fact they they are separated like that on all these runs today is partially responsible for the lower jackpot totals now…instead of 12-16 it’s like 6-9”

 

Ya I thought it was all rain at first glance.. Not quite sure how it's computing snow in Central CT with 850 temps of +1 

The run to run changes are wild on the Euro... Moderate to Heavy Snow starts at 2-4am Sunday on the 18z EURO for Western New England.. A good stripe of 6-8" 84 north .. It's a thump of snow , break, then some CCB snow tries to form at the end but its a ragged precip shield ..