Roger Smith

(forecast was 21/11/5 compared to 22/11/6 from windspeed) ... bawk bawk bawk ... you are fine with the 11/5 part anyway, maybe 30/11/6? We are now at 20/7/1, could reach 20/7/3 if both Sally and Paulette reach major status, and 20/8/4 if Teddy does also. Some variations on that more likely, perhaps by the time Teddy goes major Wilfred will be along and the count may be 21/8/3 if only one of Sally or Paulette become cat-3. If the season then slows a bit compared to 2005 (I would expect maybe Nov 2020 won't keep up to Nov 2005) the final landing point might be 25/10/4 or something like that. If 25/10/4 verifies, then the best seasonal score will be Windspeed at 40/50 with WxWatcher007 at 38/50. Points as always are calculated as follows: For each of the three elements ... penalty points from original total of 50 are 1 for an error of 1, 3 for an error of 2 (average of 2+4), 6 for an error of 3 (average of 3+9), 10 for an error of 4 (average of 4+16), 15 for an error of 5 (average of 5+25), etc. So nobody with a forecast of 20 or fewer storms can beat 40 even if they have H and M perfect (assuming 25 storms). If the count goes much past 28, nobody will score points but I'll declare the winner to be whoever is least below zero. Looks like a two-person race now, although those of us with 20 named storms have faint hopes with the right set of future outcomes, not very likely ones given current model projections and the statistical likelihood of passing 22 named storms. If we finished at 21/10/4 NCForecaster89 (20/10/5 predicted) would have 48 points, but the only route to that finish is for Vicky to become a hurricane and Wilfred also, plus any three of Sally, Paulette, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred becoming majors. This is not entirely impossible. In fact 49 points is theoretically possible at 21/10/5 (four of five become majors). At 21/9/5 (Vicky not a hurricane) it would be 48 points. If the current season froze with maximum hurricane development of all candidates, the final count would be 20/9/5. Vicky seems unlikely to become a hurricane at all, so 20/8/4 is realistically the highest we can reach from current levels (unless Rene unpredictably comes back to life). Orangeburgwx at 20/11/5 is unable to pass NCForecaster89 mathematically since there is no chance of reaching 21/11 from 20/7 without a re-do on a previous storm, only 21/10 is possible now with two current storms yet to reach hurricane status. A 22/10/3 finish would leave NCForecaster89 at 46 points, Orangeburgwx at 45, and windspeed at 43 with wxwatcher007 also at 45. So NCForecaster89 needs a slowdown of the season but with some vigor in the hurricane production. Beyond 23 named storms, the storm-20s fall out of contention rather quickly, by 24 the error component of named storms is 10 points which is hard to overcome given that more storms probably means more canes. The other two at 20 (Nutley Blizzard and myself) have little mathematical chance either, although I would come within a point or two around 30/13/7. The way this season is going, 30/13/7 sounds difficult, 30/11/3 perhaps.

Looking more severe as the front enters southwestern ON, could be some storm damage west of London and also around Cambridge ON recently based on radar, and the front is going to hit the Toronto area around 0500h to 0600h EDT. Came on looking for any reports, I guess it's sleep time there but people will be waking up to vigorous thunderstorms soon.

The count is now 13/4/1. Here's the forecast table again, this time it's what you need to complete your forecast. In some cases, it is no longer mathematically possible so the number of hurricanes will be greater than the number of named storms. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj Windspeed ______________________ 9 _ 7 _ 5 WxWatcher007 __________________ 8 _ 7 _ 4 Roger Smith _____________________ 7 _ 9 _ 6 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 7 _ 8 _ 3 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 7 _ 7 _ 4 NCforecaster89 __________________7 _ 6 _ 4 Snowlover2 ______________________ 6 _ 8 _ 4 Thunderman _____________________ 6 _ 6 _ 4 BlueDXer75 ______________________ 6 _ 5 _ 4 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 6 _ 5 _ 3 ___ Consensus (means) _________ 5.5_ 6.3_3.9 Rhino16 _________________________ 5 _10 _ 4 Rtd208 __________________________ 5 _ 8 _ 6 Newman _________________________5 _ 6 _ 3 Yoda _____________________________5 _ 4 _ 3 JakkelWx ________________________ 4 _ 6 _ 5 Alfoman _________________________ 4 _ 5 _ 4 Jaxjagman ______________________ 3 _ 5 _ 4 NHC (mid-range) _________________3 _ 4 _ 3.5 CSU _____________________________ 3 _ 4 _ 3 Olafminesaw ____________________ 2 _ 4 _ 3 Crownweather ___________________ 2 _ 4 _ 2 ______________________________________________________________

Don't know about that yet, most majors occur in Sept-Oct (or late Aug). Outside chance one of these twin storms makes cat-3. Then all to play for in Sept-Oct.

13/2/0 in this Year of the Weak Tropical Storm. Could go to 13/4/0 if both Laura and Marco become marginal canes. Anyone care to hazard an updated guess? I would say 28/15/3 at this rate. The later storms are much more likely to start beefing up. Main question is, will this production rate continue? If so, we are climatologically one-third of the way into the season for total count, adjust that for more likely hurricane outcomes, and you get to something like 40/20/?? as any majors will evidently have to come from the Greek alphabet at this rate.

9/2/0 ... on the way to 45/10/0.

8/1/0 and it's July 27th ... ... extrapolation from normal pace is 40/5/0. Under our normal scoring rules everyone would score zero. LOL

Table of entries for 2020 N Atl hurricane seasonal forecast Two expert predictions are added to the field, the NHC numbers are middle of their range and CSU gave specific values as shown. Other institutional predictions can be seen at this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season Your forecasts are shown in order of number of named storms, then broken down by hurricanes and major hurricanes. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 ______________________________________________________________ 19 forecasts (and the two expert predictions) ... means as shown for consensus in table. The contest means do not include the two expert predictions although they would not change much with them included.

Okay, just a notice that this contest will close for entries at the end of the day Monday, the deadline is set at 06z 16th which is 0200h EDT (after midnight Monday, very early Tuesday) .... I will take entries as shown then so you can edit today or Monday without the need to notify. The table of entries will be based on what I see on Tuesday morning (will have the table of entries up within a few hours of the deadline). Don't forget we are at 3/0/0 so it's that plus whatever you think will happen to end of the year for a prediction of the overall seasonal count. Good luck !!

Here's the annual "hurricane forecast contest" with a simplified format compared to other recent years, just the seasonal count is required this year, no monthly details. You can add your thoughts about that of course. The contest remains open to mid-June as the June monthly count won't be all that big a deal-breaker. Keep in mind that with Arthur's brief reign of slight disruption the count is already 1/0/0. My entry will be 20/13/7 so quite an active year and I suspect the main focus of activity may be the east coast for a change. That's not to say the usual areas of activity won't see their fair share, but I am expecting some fairly strong storms to develop in the Atlantic near the Carolinas possibly impacting the mid-Atlantic states more often than we've seen in several years. Post your forecasts and discussions ...

Will say 1492 and first high risk a major outbreak in the south-central states around Feb 8th-9th.

Oops, no tie-breaker. But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

Given that voters in most countries are divided on their level of concern about climate change, I think the best political solution is to reshape the paradigm and take climate change out of the equation to some extent, focusing instead on benefits in general from alternative (non-fossil-fuel) energy sources. If there are demonstrable benefits from such a transition, then the climate change issue fades into the background. Another change in political emphasis should be towards mitigation of problems. Whether the alleged problems are caused by AGW, other forms of natural variability, or non-climate factors, these problems need to be addressed. For example, forest fires (or wildfires) are said to be increasing. Maybe they are, maybe not. But more to the point, an advanced society should be able to manage this problem. It is probably more cpmplex than just AGW forcing more fires. There are questions like changing lifestyles (the exurban population increasing rapidly), interface questions, and philosophies about fighting or containing fires. So that sort of climate-related issue can be approached as a self-contained problem that the climate is not a key factor in controlling, in fact it would make a lot of sense to have large changes in our management of the wildfire issue, regardless of what the climate is doing or not doing. To some extent, I think the climate "emergency" is overblown hype, those who peddle it for political gain seem to have no knowledge whatsoever of the range of past weather and climate events. There may be subtle changes as part of AGW, or what we see may be just inevitable natural variability. Either way, it's a safe bet that nothing we do will actually change the future weather observed on our planet by more than a very slight amount. So knowing that, we should have mitigation strategies in place, rather than dealing in these fantasies about paying a tax on carbon to change the weather. That simply isn't going to happen, no matter how many people say so with whatever level of urgency and passion.If the oceans begin to rise in a more dramatic fashion, what can be done about it? Plans must be drawn up for protection or even removal of critical infrastructure, and populations at risk, but only when it becomes apparent that there is no alternative. I don't say this to make denial a policy, I say it because it is the only rational approach. The political parties who deal in a tax-to-solve approach are just deluding themselves and their voters. Their plans cannot possibly work. Mitigation might include diversion of some ocean water into massive desalination/irrigation projects which are needed anyway for other reasons. This is what we should be doing, rather than taxing carbon.

All four very early 10/17 in massive wintry outbreak from Midwest.

April 8, 2024 ... long totality from west TX northeast to upstate NY and Quebec. Bound to be some cloud along that line but should be within reach of most people on the forum with a bit of planning (my target would be west TX, unless a week in advance it looks like a big high over Quebec then I can go there instead).

Feb 3rd 2019.

So 18z would be about 1-2 hours before sunrise there? Damage will be enormous from the looks of those images.

Looks like the eye is headed for either eastern Shikoku or the strait between that island and Honshu but in any case a second landfall will occur near Kobe just west of Osaka. Given the populations and port infrastructure of the two landfall areas, the second one will be more problematic. Hoping the first one weakens the storm enough that the second landfall will be less intense, perhaps a strong cat-1 as opposed to 2. Well it won't be long now looking at radar and satellite animations, the thing is accelerating NNE-ward. Roughly 15-20 million people live in the Osaka region then there's Nagoya one bay east, five million more there.

Since it's 945 mb out in the open Pacific now, more likely to be around 950-955 at landfall perhaps? Seems to be only a strong cat-2 or weak cat-3 at present.

Will have some on-scene reports from my travelling friends who are going to ride this out in Kyoto, supposed to be within 50 miles of the eye around 06z to 08z (Tuesday afternoon JST). This is a radar I will be watching to check the exact track of Jebi. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Good satellite imagery here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms150jp/ It is midnight in the region now so about 12-15 hours to landfalls and impacts (first Shikoku Island, eastern half, then near Kobe west of Osaka, storm accelerates and moves across Honshu in a few hours and then at TS intensity up the north coast as far as western Hokkaido). My friends are in a modern style hotel that is a smaller building than some nearby, and the whole area is flat but 45 metres above sea level so I'm thinking no real flooding or tsunami potential, they are also on the west side of the building so much of the storm will be producing east to south winds and they are relatively sheltered from those. If the track stays a bit west, should be close to remnants of eyewall during height of storm, hoping for some interesting accounts if not pictures. Told them to expect a bit of a cleanup day outside on Wednesday then back to normal.

12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps. The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target. Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4. You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses.

You people throw some mighty fine snow parties. I had two weeks like you're having now, back around end of December and into New Years. That snow is still in my back yard today despite the past five days being sunny and around 40-45 F.

Seems like a movie in the making ... SNOW WARS Long long ago in a snowstorm far away different measurement techniques came into conflict "Luke, where is your snowboard?"

He tried to jump but missed the window wide right.

With this appearance, storm should have been Feb 14th perhaps ..