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Roger Smith

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  1. Seasonal Max 2018 contest -- updates as we enter the hottest portion of the summer FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Max to date ____________ 97 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 94 __ 98 ___105 _ 115 __ 93 Scotty Lightning ____________103 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96 RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95 Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94 mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90 wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95 dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98 ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93 Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107 _ 122 __ 93 Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92 DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88 BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91 wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91 jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93 RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89 Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 (table of departures -- red numbers can get higher, black numbers can get lower) FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH_DEN_PHX_SEA __ Total wxallannj _________________ 2 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 7 __ 1 __ 2 _____ 16 RodneyS __________________ 0 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 3 _____ 5 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 22 DonSutherland.1 ____________2 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 2 __ 3 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 5 _____ 23 jaxjagman _________________1 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 0 __ 5 __ 0 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 24 ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 3 __ 3 __ 1 _____2 __ 5 __ 4 _____ 7 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 26 BKViking __________________2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 4 __ 2 _____10 __ 1 __ 2 _____ 27 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 4 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 3 __ 6 _____ 6 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 27 wxdude64 _________________3 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 7 __ 4 _____ 5 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 29 Stebo ____________________ 3 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 4 __ 4 __ 5 _____ 8 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 30 so_whats_happening ________3 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 3 __ 5 _____ 4 __ 4 __ 5 _____ 31 Roger Smith _______________ 3 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 1 __ 8 __ 6 _____ 2 __ 7 __ 0 _____ 31 RJay _____________________ 5 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 9 __ 5 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 35 dmillz25 __________________ 3 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 7 __ 5 _____ 5 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 35 mappy ___________________ 5 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 3 __ 4 _____ 9 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 35 Tom _____________________ 5 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 4 __ 9 __ 5 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 38 Scotty Lightning ____________6 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 7 __ 9 _____ 7 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 39 Orangeburgwx _____________ 0 __ 3 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 8 __ 3 ____ 18__10 __ 3 _____ 54
  2. Before you disappear from the internet for the holiday long weekend, post a forecast for July 2018: Temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normals for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... late penalties begin at 06z Sunday July 1st but will proceed at the leisurely pace of 1% every 4 hours for 48 hours then jump to 1% an hour by 06z Tuesday July 3rd. ... Have a great holiday weekend and good luck !
  3. Roger Smith

    July Banter Thread

    I am predicting an average winter with average rain and snow, average temperatures, and average winds, cloudiness, humidity, fog days ... ... this way, I cannot be wrong side of average. (will make a real forecast in October)
  4. Rather late in the day for an update on anomalies so will work from anomalies for 1-8 and forecast to 15th from NWS 7-day available. Updates after 15 and 22 days. _____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Seasonal Max to date ____ 97 __ 96 __ 98 ____ 97 __ 94 __ 98 ____105 __ 115 __ 93 __anomaly 1-8 ________ +3.6 _+4.2 _+5.2 __+3.9 _+0.8 _--0.8 __+3.6 _+3.3 _+2.6 __anomaly 1-15 _______ +2.6 _+2.9 _+2.7 __+4.6 _+1.6 _--0.1 __+3.1 _+0.3 _+4.2 __forecast anom 15th ___+2.0 _+2.5 _+3.0 __+4.0 _+0.5 _--0.5 __+4.0 _+0.8 _+2.5 __forecast anom 22nd ___+1.7 _+2.1 _+2.6 __+2.8 _+1.0 _+1.2 __+4.0 _--0.5 _+3.8 __forecast anom 24th ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+3.0 __ 0.0 _--0.2 __+3.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 __forecast anom 31st ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+2.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __+3.0 _+0.5 _+2.5 __________________________________________________________________________ (16th) _ The average error of past 7 day NWS forecasts was 0.73 deg (rated good).
  5. Table of forecasts July 2018 FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stebo _____ (-8%) ________ GL/OV _ +3.8 _+3.5 _+2.5 __+3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __+3.5 _+1.2 _--0.5 AfewUniversesbelownormal ___ MA __ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.5 __+2.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+2.5 __ 0.0 RJay _____________________ NYC __+3.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 Tom _____________________PHL___ +3.1 _+2.8 _+2.1 __+2.9 _+1.8 _+2.1 __+3.0 _+0.5 _+0.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________ NYC __ +2.8 _+3.4 _+3.2 __+1.6 _+2.5 _+2.4 __+2.1 _+1.7 _+2.3 Roger Smith _______________C+W __+2.8 _+2.0 _+1.7 __+1.5 _+1.3 _--0.2 __+4.5 _+2.0 _+1.0 BKViking __________________NYC __ +2.8 _+2.4 _+2.8 __+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.9 __+2.8 _+1.7 _+1.6 ___ Consensus ____________ N A ___+2.7 _+2.8 _+2.5 __+2.4 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+2.8 _+1.8 _+0.7 dmillz25 __________________NYC __ +2.5 _+2.9 _+2.5 __+3.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 __+3.5 _+2.5 _+1.9 jaxjagman _____ (-3%) _____ TNV __ +2.2 _+2.3 _+1.8 __+1.9 _+2.3 _+2.1 __+3.0 _+3.0 _+0.9 DonSutherland.1 ___________ NYC __ +2.0 _+2.8 _+2.4 __+2.2 _+0.3 _+0.2 __+0.1 _+1.5 _+0.7 RodneyS __________________ MA __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __+2.0 __ 0.0 _+1.7 __+2.7 _+2.5 _+2.1 wxallannj _________________ NYC __ +1.8 _+2.8 _+2.8 __+2.5 _+1.3 _+0.8 __+2.3 _+1.9 _+0.6 Scotty Lightning ____________PHL __ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 wxdude64 ________________ MA ___ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.5 __+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.5 __+2.8 _+1.1 _+0.2 _____ Normal _____________USA ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _________________________________________________________________________________________ color codes depict high and low forecasts, Normal is low for seven of them too. We may just drop the + sign the way some of you already do, at this rate ... two forecasts out of 126 entered are negative ... ... consensus is median value, mean of 7th and 8th ranked of the 14 forecasts ... welcome back oh long-named one ... ... Seems that SE and PA/NY are going to miss July, will ask around what sort of reduced penalty would be acceptable, the two I have assessed above are by the rules and would be reduced if we get into that to preserve the Rumble, but I got very busy on a house painting project the past week and couldn't chase people down as I usually do. Still, if only there was something with dates and pictures to remind people of new months, do you think anyone will ever invent something like that? Most of you guys (and gals?) seem to remember fairly predictably, I don't think Don has ever been assessed a late penalty in the seven years I have been doing this (including before I was scoring). I had one when I couldn't access the internet on a trip once upon a time. Anyone else with a perfect on time record? (and that's not Don's only claim to fame around here). ... ...
  6. June's actual count was 0 0 0. Scoring will be max of 4.0 points for pcbjr and afewUniversesbelownormal, also NHC mid-range. 3.5 points awarded to 1 0 0 (Blunder Storm, snowlover2, crownweather, cobalt, Yoda, OSUmetstud, and Contest Normal). 3.0 points awarded to 1 1 0 (NCforecaster89, Orangeburgwx) 2.7 points for 1.6 0.5 0.0 (Contest mean) 2.5 points go to 2 0 0 forecasts (RJay, rtd208, jaxjagman, jburns) 2.0 points for 2 1 0 forecasts (SRRTA22, Roger Smith, jackstraw, jbamafanwx, UIWWildthing, NorthArlington101, hlcater, NCskywarn, also Consensus) 0.5 points for 3 1 0 forecast (Stebo) 0.0 points for 3 2 0 forecast (mryanwilkes)
  7. What kind of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season do you foresee? Our annual contest asks you to predict the total number of storms, and break it down by months. As you know, the "count" is total number of named storms, then total number of those that become hurricanes, and finally total number of hurricanes that become major (cat-3 or stronger). Last year the final count was 17/10/6 and our contest winner was Rockchalk83. The rules are fairly simple. You need to post a seasonal total by the deadline which I am setting as June 4th as we often seem to be getting entries past the season's June 1st starting point. I will try to expand the field by publicizing the contest in regional forums this year. Your seasonal total should include any developments in May, but if there is an outcome (GFS keeps showing a late May hurricane in the eastern Gulf) earlier forecasts that are backed up by monthly predictions will be adjusted if it appears that the May storm is not anticipated. Seasonals that have no complete monthly component will be left unadjusted as it could be assumed that the May storm is included. Last year, all entrants gave monthly predictions and almost all left them unedited, but the contest rules allow you to submit these up to 06z of the first of each month, or to revise them by that deadline. Note, there is no requirement for your monthly numbers to add up to your seasonal numbers and you can use decimal points to express uncertainty. Since most of the seasonal forecasts were the sum of the monthly predictions, I assumed that any May activity could be factored in. Some past years, we have had to deal with even earlier storms that happened before the contest announcement (January, April). I am going to post my forecast mostly as a guide to how your forecast should appear (not the numbers but the format) ... Roger Smith ____ 21 16 7 ____ (Jun) 2 1 0 _ (Jul) 1 1 0 __ (Aug) 4 3 2 __ (Sep) 7 5 3 __ (Oct) 5 4 2 __ (Nov-Dec) 1 1 0 (this assumes a 1 1 0 May, would be adjusted to 20 15 7 if 0 0 0 or 21 15 7 if 1 0 0) Scoring for the contest is as follows: 50% of the score is based on the seasonal. You start with 50 points and in each category, you lose half of (1 point per error plus that number squared). Example, you predict 16 storms, the actual is 19, your error is (3 + 3 squared)/2 = 12/2 = 6. If you had similar errors for hurricanes and majors, your total score would then be 32/50. The other 50% of the score is based on your monthly forecasts starting with June and ending with Nov-Dec. These are worth 4, 6, 12, 16, 10 and 2 points in order from June to Nov-Dec. Then the errors reduce your possible score in the same way as the seasonal formula, except that June, July and Nov-Dec go with half the reductions (in other words, you lose points at half the rate of the other more active months). In the past few years, highest scores in the contest have been close to 90 and seasonal scores of 48 to 50 have been achieved. A good monthly set will earn 41-43 points. Good luck if you enter. The deadline will be made more precise around June 1st and all entrants can edit up to the eventual deadline without notice, you can assume that I won't be copying down or storing any forecasts until a firm deadline is posted in the thread and up to that firm deadline, so no need to post new numbers, just edit the old ones. Once a table of entries appears, your numbers are set for the seasonal and June portions but you have the option of posting revised monthly numbers at any point during the contest before monthly deadlines. Late monthly revisions will be penalized at a rate of 10% per day but will not be valid after any named storm is declared in the month. As you see, I am expecting a very active season. There seems to be no particular reason why the outcome from 2017 would change very much this year, hopefully the majors will stay out to sea more often and avoid the sorts of landfalls that caused so much devastation in 2017.
  8. +2.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ --0.2 ___ +4.5 _ +2.0 _+1.0
  9. I hope you're enjoying a relaxing Memorial Day weekend, but don't forget when it's over to enter the June temperature forecast contest. I will post reminders in regional threads on May 30th. The contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Good luck. (RJay if you read this, can we unpin April and May if we pin this? Thanks very much for your help).
  10. Extreme forecast update It's looking like we may have a few more extreme forecast results and some near misses. DCA won't qualify as the outcome was +1.0, warmer than several forecasts. NYC was a near miss with final value of +0.2 which was high score for the third coldest forecast of +0.1, so no go there. BOS is a similar story with high score for fourth lowest forecast at --0.2. ORD also finished a bit out of the extreme forecast zone, the final anomaly is +2.6, with high score for fourth highest forecast of +2.5. ATL was a win for Stebo who has high forecast of +2.2, final anomaly is +2.5. IAH is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.5) and a loss for Tom at +2.6. DEN finished right on the mark at +5.0 and +5.0 from RJay is high forecast for the win. PHX failed to qualify at +1.4. SEA managed to qualify at +1.7, high score going to second highest forecast +1.8 from BKViking (RJay at +2.5 took the loss). Extreme Forecasts wins and losses In this table, secondary wins where "a few Universes below normal" had a win in May are marked by # symbols, and will be withdrawn if "a few Univ bn" enters a total of five contests in 2018. For DEN, two regulars tied with "a few Univ bn" and those will be retained in any case. ... RodneyS picks up one more win from April as the original win went to one-time entrant cerakoter1984. Roger Smith __________11###-0 (can fall to 8-0 see above) RodneyS _____________ 7-1 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 __ Normal ____________ 4-1 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see above) RJay ________________ 4-2 wxallannj _____________3-0 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ____________ 2-0 DonSutherland1 ________2-0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 BKViking ______________1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 Tom _________________ 0-1 * no decision (Mar for IAH)
  11. --- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - June 2018 ====>>>> -- ---- Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________392 _392 _408 ___1192 ____ 280 _364 _218 ____ 862 ___ 2054 __2*3*2 03*1 .2.1 __ MAY hudsonvalley21 _____ 301 _304 _314 ____ 919 ____ 239 _345 _375 ____ 959 ___ 1878 ___ 000 001 .0.1 so_whats_happening _251 _295 _354 ____ 900 ____ 302 _341 _314 ____ 957 ___ 1857 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB jaxjagman _________ 304 _278 _346 ____ 928 ____ 260 _354 _300 ____ 914 ___ 1842 ___ 001 000 .0.1 DonSutherland.1 ___ 332 _326 _348 ____1006 ____ 251 _328 _257 ____ 836 ___ 1842 ___ 000.100 .0.0 wxdude64 _________ 332 _321 _352 ____1005 ____ 256 _321 _252 ____ 829 ___ 1834 ___ 110 000 .1.0 ___Consensus ______ 301 _303 _340 ____ 944 ____ 251 _322 _273 ____ 846 ___ 1790 ___ 000 100 .0.0 wxallannj __________ 296 _328 _344 ____ 968 ____ 262 _262 _293 ____ 817 ___ 1785 ___ 000 001 Scotty Lightning (SD) _317 _301 _390 ___ 1008 ____ 285 _273 _219 ____ 777 ___ 1785 ___ 101 100 .1.1 BKViking ___________287 _321 _354 ____ 962 ____ 221 _313 _281 ____ 815 ___ 1777 ___ 000 000 .0.1 RJay ______________262 _306 _325 ____ 893 ____ 209 _342 _311 ____ 862 ___ 1755 ___ 011 001 .1.1 __ APR Stebo _____________ 258 _266 _320 ____ 842 ____ 275 _342 _292 ____ 909 ___ 1751 ___ 000 111 .0.0 ___Normal _________314 _313 _383 ____1010 ____ 294 _271 _169 ____ 734 ___ 1744 ___ 001 101 .0.0 Tom ______________ 297 _305 _349 ____ 951 ____ 219 _321 _233 ____ 773 ___ 1724 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN dmillz25 ___________ 247 _221 _258 ____ 726 ____ 272 _314 _284 ____ 870 ___ 1596 ___ 000 010 .0.0 RodneyS ___________276 _274 _306 ____ 856 ____ 213 _264 _252 ____ 729 ___ 1585 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR mappy (5/6) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(5/6)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 Mercurial (2/6) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/6)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/6) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (1)_066 _080 _080 ____ 226 ____ 045 _066 _092 ____ 203 ____ 429 ___ 110 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/6) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: all shown (2/6) missed March to June, Orangeburgwx (5/6) missed January, ... mappy (5/6) missed June, and H2OTown_wx (3/6) missed April, May, June. Part Two: Western and All Nine contests ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 272 _ 418 _ 422 ____ 1112 __________ 0 1 2 __ Apr ______ 2897 (= 2) BKViking _______________276 _ 396 _ 407 _____1079 __________ 0 0 1 ____________ 2856 (= 4) __ JUN RodneyS_______________ 332 _ 400 _ 302 _____1034 __________ 1 1 1 __May ______ 2619 (=12) __ MAR, APR DonSutherland.1 ________ 272 _ 370 _ 357 _____ 999 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jan _______2841 (= 5) __ Consensus __________ 274 _ 378 _ 346 ______998 __________ 0 1 0 _____________2788 (= 7) hudsonvalley21 _________ 292 _ 321 _ 371 _____ 984 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2862 (= 3) wxallannj ______________ 272 _ 398 _ 301 _____ 971 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______2756 (= 8) Roger Smith ____________286 _ 356 _ 328 _____ 970 __________ 2 0 0 __ Jan _______3024 (= 1) __ MAY Tom __________________ 295 _ 362 _ 308 _____ 965 __________ 1 0 0 _____________2689 (=11) so_whats_happening _____257 _ 383 _ 311 _____ 951 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2808 (= 6) __ FEB RJay __________________277 _ 314 _ 356 _____ 947 __________ 2 1 0 _____________ 2702 (=10) wxdude64 _____________ 297 _ 304 _ 324 _____ 925 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2759 (= 7) __Normal ______________236 _ 322 _ 360 _____ 918 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 2662 (=12) __ FEB dmillz25 _______________ 225 _ 367 _ 318 _____ 910 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 2506 (=13) jaxjagman _____________ 232 _ 318 _ 349 _____ 899 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2741 (= 9) Orangeburgwx (5/6)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15) Stebo _________________ 180 _ 308 _ 230 _____ 718 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2469 (=14) mappy (5/6) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/6) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18) Mercurial __ (2/6) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/6) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/6) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) afewUniv bn (1 mo May) __ 060 _ 088 _ 012 _____ 160 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 589 (=20) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25) __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - June _) Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS NYC _____________________1185 _____1072 ____1233 ________3490 Mid Atlantic _______________1252 _____1116 ____1111 ________3479 Central + Western _________ 1346 _____1001 ____1016 ________3363 PHL _____________________ 1217 _____ 901 ____1148 ________3266 PA / NY ___________________900 _____ 950 _____ 951 ________2801 TN Valley _________________ 976 _____ 914 _____ 909 ________2799 ___ Consensus _____________944 _____ 846 _____ 998 ________2788 ___Normal _______________ 1010 _____ 734 _____ 918 ________2662 Southeast _________________ 849 _____ 668 _____1007 ________2524 Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 842 _____ 909 _____ 718 ________2469 New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979
  12. Final scoring June 2018 ... scoring range is unusually small in June ... FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL BKViking _____ NYC _______ 70 _ 76 _ 84 __ 230 ___ 94 _ 92 _ 86 __ 272 ___502___ 52 _ 92 _ 98 __ 242 ____ 744 Tom __________ PHL ______96 _ 92 _ 98 __ 286 ___ 94 _ 74 _ 98 __ 266 ___552___ 48 _ 82 _ 60 __ 190 ____ 742 dmillz25 ______ NYC _______70 _ 74 _ 78 __ 222 ___ 88 _ 90 _ 80 __ 258 ___480___ 60 _ 98 _ 96 __ 254____ 734 ___ Consensus ____________94 _ 84 _ 80 __ 258 ___ 88 _ 74 _ 86 __ 248 ___506___ 58 _ 88 _ 80 __ 226____ 732 wxallannj _____ NYC _______94 _ 86 _ 92 __ 272 ___ 92 _ 58 _ 96 __ 246 ___518___ 64 _ 90 _ 56 __ 210 ____ 728 RJay _________ NYC _______80 _ 64 _ 58 __ 202 ___ 92 _ 90 _ 90 __ 272 ___474__100_ 58 _ 84 __ 242 ____ 716 jaxjagman _____ TNV ______84 _ 68 _ 64 __ 216 ___ 96 _ 84 _ 92 __ 272 ___488___ 60 _ 58 _ 92 __ 210 ____ 698 hudsonvalley21 _ NYC ______72 _ 54 _ 66 __ 192 ___ 96 _ 76 _100 __272 ___464___ 72 _ 70 _ 90 __ 232 ____ 696 Stebo _______GL/OV ______ 76 _ 74 _ 74 __ 224 ___ 98 _ 94 _ 70 __ 262 ___486___ 58 _ 94 _ 36 __ 188 ____ 674 Scotty Lightning _ PHL _____100_ 94_ 98__ 292 ___ 58 _ 70 _ 70 __ 198 ___490___ 10 _ 92 _ 76 __ 178 ____ 668 wxdude64 ____ M A _______ 64 _ 60 _ 46 __ 170 ___ 70 _ 88 _ 98 __ 256 ___426___ 82 _ 66 _ 82 __ 230 ____ 656 DonSutherland.1 _NYC _____ 96 _ 84 _ 80 __ 260 ___ 62 _ 60 _ 66 __ 188 ___448___ 20 _ 98_ 82 __ 200 ____ 648 Roger Smith ____ C+W _____90 _ 98_ 96 __ 284 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 74 __ 160 ___444___ 46 _ 88 _ 66 __ 200 ____ 644 Orangeburgwx ___SE _(-2%)_92**88**86**_266 ___ 49*_ 57*_71*__177 ___443___ 37*_98**61*__ 196 ____ 639 so_whats_happening _PA/NY_96 _ 84 _ 74 __ 254 ___ 66 _ 72 _ 92 __ 230 ___484___ 34 _ 84 _ 80 __ 198 _682 ____________ (-10%) _____ 86 _ 76 _ 67 __ 229 ___ 59 _ 65 _ 83 __ 207 ___436___ 31 _ 76 _ 72 __ 179 ____ 615 RodneyS _______ M A ______64 _ 68 _ 76 __ 208 ___ 40 _ 34 _ 86 __ 160 ___368___ 96 _ 68 _ 74 __ 238 ____ 606 ___ Normal _______________80 _ 96 _ 98 __ 274 ___ 48 _ 50 _ 50 __ 148 ___422___ 00 _ 72 _ 66 __ 138 ____ 560 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ * or ** show reduced scores of 1 or 2 for small late penalties -- larger late penalties are tabulated in separate lines. Regional Rumble -- Final scoring June 2018 Region ___________________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTAL NYC _______________________ 272 ______ 272 ______ 254 _______ 798 PHL ________________________292 ______ 266 ______ 190 _______ 748 ___ Consensus ______________ 258 ______ 248 ______ 226 _______ 732 Mid-Atlantic _________________ 208 ______ 256 ______ 238 _______ 702 TN Valley ___________________ 216 ______ 272 ______ 210 _______ 698 GL/OV ______________________226 ______ 262 ______ 188 _______ 676 Central + Western ____________284 ______ 160 ______ 200 _______ 644 Southeast ___________________266 ______ 177 ______ 196 _______ 639 PA/NY ______________________229 ______ 207 ______ 179 _______ 615 ___ Normal _________________ 274 ______ 148 ______ 138 _______ 560
  13. Anomaly tracker with an update on seasonal max values to date ... ATL has no report for 2nd, hoping this will be available eventually. There are no reports for any nearby locations, so I estimated +6 from Chattanooga, TN which had a +7 anomaly. The six days available at ATL reported +2.5 so I boosted that to +3.0. (the missing data had not been added by 14th, so reported 2.7 is adjusted to 2.8). Seasonal max to date values are updated whenever possible (just changing a few now on 21st). __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Seasonal max to date _________ 95 __ 93 __ 92 _____ 97 __ 93 __ 98 ______105 __ 111 __ 88 June 1-7 anomaly ____________+0.7 _--1.5 _--3.8 ___+0.4 _+3.0 _+4.6 ____+8.2 _+3.3 _+1.4 June 1-14 anomaly ____________0.0 _--1.0 _--1.7 ___+0.9 _+2.8 _+4.2 ____+8.9 _+3.8 _--0.4 June 1-21 anomaly ___________+1.4 _+0.7 _--0.1 ___+2.6 _+3.2 _+2.5 ____+6.3 _+1.5 _+2.4 June 1-24 anomaly ___________+0.9 _+0.1 _--0.7 ___+1.9 _+3.0 _+2.6 ____+5.2 _+1.5 _+2.4 June 1-28 anomaly ___________+0.8 _--0.2 _--0.8 ___+1.9 _+2.6 _+2.4 ____+5.4 _+1.6 _+1.9 predicted anomaly 14th (NWS)__+1.2 __0.0 _--1.0 ___+2.7 _+3.0 _+3.3 ____+7.5 _+3.0 _+0.7 predicted anomaly 21st (NWS)__+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+3.1 _+4.2 _+3.8 ____+7.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 predicted anomaly 28th (NWS)__+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___+1.5 _+2.7 _+2.2 ____+5.2 _+1.5 _+1.8 predicted anomaly 24th (GFS) __+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.3 ____+5.0 _+2.5 _+0.2 predicted anomaly 30th (GFS) __+1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 ___+2.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 ____+5.0 _+2.5 _+1.5 updated on 22nd (GFS 29-30) __+0.7 _+0.2 _--0.3 ___+2.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ____+5.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 updated on 25th (NWS 25-30) __+1.2 _+0.2 _--0.3 ___+2.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 ____+6.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ final June anomalies ______ +1.0_+0.2_--0.1___+2.6_+2.5_+2.5____+5.0 _+1.4_+1.7 Notes: The average accuracy for NWS forecasts 8th to 14th was moderate, the average error being 1.0 deg. This improved to 0.8 deg for the period 15th to 21st. The average accuracy of the combined NWS-GFS (as per RJS) 16d forecast for 24th was a very good average error of 0.6, and with SEA out by 2.2, the average of the other eight locations was closer to 0.4 deg. (score using our system would be 790/900). Staying with the recent provisionals after looking at forecasts for 29th-30th although ATL may drop closer to +2.5 (but still no report for 2nd in the CF6) which could add 10 points to all scores, meanwhile the verification for 28th (7 day NWS) was very good, average error only 0.4 deg. Final report will be final anomalies, seasonal max updates can always occur and probably will for eastern cities if forecasts verify. (July 1st 15z _ Anomalies are now posted and scores updated. See final line of table above. Confirmed anomalies are in bold type. ATL inserted a value (+5) for the previously missing 2nd in their CF6.
  14. Our consensus from 24 forecasts (not including the NHC mid-range but closer to top of their range) is for a fairly average season by recent standards. The contest normal is derived from data since 1989 and is boosted by one due to the out-of-season May storm. But in general terms, the consensus looks for a somewhat more active early season (July in particular has higher numbers than average) and a somewhat flat end of the season (October shows this tendency).
  15. 2018 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- Table of entries Entries include the 100 count for May and are adjusted when monthly totals appear to add up to seasonal forecasts (in other words, the 100 is added on). Where May is included the total is left as posted. When there is only a seasonal forecast and no monthlies, the contest normal values are used scaled to the forecast (* appears beside forecaster name). These forecasters can supply monthly values before future months begin if they wish, and subject to the following: Contest rules state that your monthlies do not have to add up to your seasonal. But if anyone thinks this is an error and wants to adjust, you have until end of June 7th to adjust (PM sent to one entrant on this issue). All forecasters have the option to adjust future months before they begin if they wish (post new numbers). Note -- have added BlunderStorm's entry which I overlooked (made the table from page one thinking all the entries were there, oops) -- tied seasonals are listed in order received. FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June __ July _ August _ Sept __ Oct _ Nov-Dec ___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 ____ 6 ____ 12 ___ 16 ___ 10 ____ 2 ____ 100 SRRTA22 __________________ 22 _9 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 _ 3 2 1 Roger Smith ________________21 15 7 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 4 3 2 __ 7 5 3 __ 5 4 2 _ 1 1 0 Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0 Orangeburgwx ______________ 19 9 4 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 4 2 1 __ 3 1 1 _ 1 0 0 RJay ______________________ 19 9 3 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 1 0 0 jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0 Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 ____100 __ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 3 2 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 0 0 0 mryanwilkes ________________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 3 2 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 BlunderStorm _______________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0 UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 5 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 ___________ 17 8 4 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ Consensus ______________17 8 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 2 1 _ 1 0 0 ___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ncskywarn _________________15 11 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 2 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 1 _ 1 1 0 jburns _____________________15 8 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 (Jul 210 rev) crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 cobalt _____________________14 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 0 0 a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 ____100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ NHC mid-range _________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 0.5_0 0 0 Yoda ______________________13 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 ____ 100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 5 2 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 ____ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _______________________________________________________________________ Contest means ___16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2__3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5__2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0 (Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)
  16. We are closing in on the contest deadline, there's nothing too imminent so I will allow entries and edits to end of day June 5th then post the table of entries -- let's say 03z June 6th will be when I harvest the entries so if you're going to edit or enter, do it before that time.
  17. Table of forecasts June 2018 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxdude64 ____ M A _______ +2.8 _+2.2 _+2.6 ___ +1.1 _+1.9 _+2.4 ___ +4.1 _+3.1 _+0.8 dmillz25 ______ NYC _______ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___ +3.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 BKViking _____ NYC _______ +2.5 _+1.4 _+0.7 ___ +2.3 _+2.1 _+1.8 ___ +2.6 _+1.8 _+1.8 hudsonvalley21 _ NYC ______+2.4 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___ +2.8 _+1.3 _+2.5 ___ +3.6 _+2.9 _+1.2 Stebo _______GL/OV ______ +2.2 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.2 _+1.0 ___ +2.9 _+1.1 _--1.5 RJay _________ NYC _______+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 jaxjagman _____ TNV ______+1.8 _+1.8 _+1.7 ___ +2.4 _+1.7 _+2.1 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______ NYC ______+1.3 _+0.9 _+0.3 ___ +2.2 _+0.4 _+2.3 ___ +3.2 _+1.9 _--0.5 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.3 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ +2.0 _+1.2 _+1.8 ___ +2.9 _+2.0 _+0.7 so_whats_happening ____________PA/NY (-10%)_+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.1 _+2.1 ___ +1.7 _+2.2 _+0.7 Tom __________ PHL ______+1.2 _+0.6 _--0.2 ___ +2.9 _+1.2 _+2.6 ___ +2.4 _+2.3 _--0.3 Scotty Lightning _ PHL ______+1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 DonSutherland.1 _NYC ______+0.8 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ +0.7 _+0.5 _+0.8 ___ +1.0 _+1.3 _+0.8 Orangeburgwx ___ SE _(-2%)_+0.7 _--0.3 _--0.7 ___ +0.1 _+0.4 _+1.1 ___ +1.9 _+1.4 _--0.2 Roger Smith ____ C+W _____+0.5 _+0.1 _--0.3 ___ --0.5 _--0.1 _+1.2 ___ +2.3 _+2.0 __ 0.0 ___ Normal ________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _______ M A ______--0.8 _--1.4 _--1.3 ___ --0.4 _--0.8 _+1.8 ___ +4.8 _+3.0 _+0.4 _______________________________________________________________________ color codes for highest and lowest forecasts, Normal is coolest for IAH, DEN and PHX.
  18. Thanks for entering the contest ... further entries will be accepted at least to June 4th then we will make up a table of entries. We use a "contest normal" which is basically derived from the average of 1989 to 2017, the active season last year has bumped up the values slightly from last year's contest. Also we add in the out-of-season May 1,0,0 to that contest normal as we have done the past two years for January to May activity. This makes the contest normal _________________________ SEASON __ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2017____ 16_8_3 __ 100 _ 100__100__421__641__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: We also take the NHC "mid-range" from their published seasonal forecast. It is assumed that the May activity is part of their forecast. The mid-range of their 2018 forecast is 13 7 2.5, which is almost identical to the Weather Channel at 13 7 2. (source: Wikipedia article) To make their entry complete, I have scaled their forecast to the contest normal as follows: NHC mid-range ___________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 _ 000 _ 100 _ 321 _ 531 _ 3 2 0.5 _ 000 If you have entered only a seasonal prediction, I will scale a set of monthlies for you and you can always adjust them going forward. If you have entered monthlies and they do not include a 100 count for May but add up to your seasonal total, I will add the May 100 to your seasonal forecast. If you have that in your mix then I won't adjust your total. A reminder -- you can adjust monthly forecasts up to the start of each month if you spot new trends. Your seasonal is carved in stone once we set the table of entries though.
  19. +0.5 __ +0.1 __ --0.3 ___ --0.5 __ --0.1 __ +1.2 ___ +2.3 __ +2.0 __ 0.0
  20. Four seasons contest update SPRING 2018 (March, April, May) ____________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals) FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points ___ (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points RodneyS _____________ 991 ____7 __________ 678 _____ 10________ 1669 _____10 Roger Smith _________ 1110 ___ 10 __________532 ______ --________ 1642 _____ 7 wxdude64 ___________ 942 ____ 6 ___________541 ______ --________1483 _____ 6 Tom ________________904 ____ 5 ___________553 ______ 1 ________1457 _____ 5 Don Sutherland.1 _____ 875 ____ 4 ___________579 ______ 4 ________1454 _____ 4 wxallannj ____________805 ____ 1 ___________621 ______ 5 ________1426 _____ 3 BKViking ____________ 764 ____ -- __________ 650 ______ 7 ________1414 _____ 2 ___ Consensus _______ 807 ___ 1 ___________ 588 ______ 4 ________ 1395 _____ 1 RJay ________________827 ___ 1 ___________ 565 ______ 2 ________ 1392 _____ 1 jaxjagman ___________ 866 ___ 3 ___________ 507 ______ -- _______ 1373 _____ 1 hudsonvalley21 _______ 801 ___ 1 ___________ 560 ______ 1 ________1361 _____ 1 so_whats_happening __ 765 ___ -- ___________ 567 ______ 3 ________1332 _____ -- Scotty Lightning ______ 641 ___ -- ___________ 636 ______ 6 ________1277 _____ -- dmillz25 ____________ 673 ___ -- ___________ 550 ______ 1 ________ 1223 _____ -- Stebo _______________833 ___ 2 ___________ 382 ______ -- ________1215 _____ -- ___Normal ___________662 ___ -- ___________512 ______ -- ________1174 _____ -- mappy ______________731 ___ -- ___________ 408 ______ -- ________1139 _____ -- Orangeburgwx________635 ___ -- ___________ 415 ______ -- ________1050 _____ -- Four Seasons total points to date ... listed in order of all nine total points ... FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points Roger Smith _________1,10 ______ 11 _______ 5, 0 ______5 _____ 4, 7 _____11 RodneyS ____________ 0, 7 ______ 7 ________1,10 _____ 11 _____ 0,10 ____ 10 Scotty Lightning _____10, 0_______ 10 ______ 10, 6_____ 16 ____ 10, 0 _____10 Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4 _______ 9 _______ 7, 4 _____ 11 _____ 6, 4 _____ 10 hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1 _______ 8 _______ 3, 2 ______ 5 _____ 7, 1 ______ 8 wxdude64 __________ 4, 6 _______10 _______ 0, 0 ______ 0 _____1, 6 ______ 7 ___Normal __________ 7, 0 _______ 7 _______ 6, 0 ______6 _____ 7, 0 ______ 7 so_whats_happening __ 6. 0 _______ 6 _______ 2, 3 ______5 _____ 5, 0 ______ 5 Tom ________________0, 5 _______ 5 _______ 6, 1 _____ 7 _____ 0, 5 _______ 5 BKViking ____________ 3, 0 _______ 3 _______ 1, 7 _____ 8 ______ 3, 2 ______ 5 wxallannj ____________2, 1 _______ 3 _______ 1, 5 _____ 6 ______ 2, 3 ______ 5 ___ Consensus _______ 2.,1 _______ 3 _______ 3, 4 _____ 7 _____ 4, 1 _______ 5 RJay ________________1, 1 ________ 2 ______ 0, 2 _____ 2 _____ 1, 1 _______ 2 H2O_Town__WX ______ 0, 0 _______ 0 _______ 5, 0 _____ 5 _____ 1, 0 _______ 1 dmillz25 _____________ 1, 0 _______ 1 ________0, 1 _____ 1 _____ 0, 0 _______ 0 (only forecasters with any points are in table)
  21. The usual monthly temperature forecast contest (and continuation of the now very close Regional Rumble) will be accompanied this month by the annual max contest. We have had this added bonus contest each of the past three years and most of our regulars have entered it -- see rules below. For the temperature forecast contest, it's the usual challenge to predict the anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 "normals" for DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA For the annual maximum contest, it's simply based on the 2018 maximum for each of those same locations, with the season being all year rather than the summer months alone, as the max can happen in May or September. So add on those forecasts to your May anomaly predictions. Deadline for the main temperature contest is 06z May 1st with 1% penalties from then on every four hours to 18z May 2nd and 1% per hour late after that. There won't be a late penalty applied to the seasonal max portion, if you happen to forget and then edit them in before May 10th or so when I make up a table of entries for the seasonal max, that will be fine, and it gives me a few days to send reminders. And if anyone just wants to enter this seasonal max contest alone, that will be fine too. Good luck !!! (April provisional scoring available, everything is tightening up in all contests ... and the snowfall contest is pretty much done now, as DEN is still way below even our minimum forecast and it's unlikely to snow (much) at the other locations -- that contest is updated when necessary back in the February thread but I will move the likely results to this thread around May 8th or so -- technically the contest runs to June 30th).
  22. Extreme Forecast Update This was a great month for new (to here) forecaster "AfewUniversesbelownormal" who captured five. Regulars who were second in those will earn a win if "AfewUbn" racks up fewer than five months by end of year, so for now any second awards will be marked with asterisks and withdrawn if or when he reaches five. DCA _ Final +6.4, win for "afewU b n" at +4.0 and depending on future entries for "afewU b n" also a win for Roger Smith at +3.6. NYC _ Final +4.5, win for "afewU b n" at +3.5 and (see above) Roger Smith at +3.4. BOS _ Final +4.2, a win for Roger Smith at +4.0. ORD _ Final +7.0, a win for DonSutherland.1 at +2.8. ATL _ Final +4.7, a win for "a few U b n" at +3.0 and tied scores of Orangeburgwx +2.6 (-2 late) and Roger Smith at +2.5 IAH _ Final +2.9, a win for Roger Smith at +2.8. DEN _ Final +4.3, a win for three tied at +2.0 (A few U bn, Roger Smith, RodneyS) ... the tie means no second award situation. SEA _ Final +5.0, a win for RodneyS at +2.6 (PHX at +1.4 will not qualify). Extreme Forecasts wins and losses In this table, secondary wins where "a few Universes below normal" had a win in May are marked by # symbols, and will be withdrawn if "a few Univ bn" enters a total of five contests in 2018. For DEN, two regulars tied with "a few Univ bn" and those will be retained in any case. Roger Smith __________11###-0 (can fall to 8-0 see above) RodneyS _____________ 6-1 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 __ Normal ____________ 4-1 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see above) wxallannj _____________3-0 RJay ________________ 3-1 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ____________ 2-0 DonSutherland1 ________2-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 * no decision (Mar for IAH)
  23. Roger Smith

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    Entrainment of several cells will bring a risk of dangerous flash flooding around Baltimore next 3 hours. Potential for 8" rainfalls. (IMHO)
  24. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  25. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
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