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Roger Smith

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  1. Well, the provisional September scoring shows only one significant change in the contest, RJay (and also Tom) made a move through the chase pack to close in on the leaders. Ahead of them there was very little movement with scoring fairly equal among the leaders. Your host is clinging to a rather narrow lead in the eastern-central (original six) and the all nine scoring, while Scotty Lightning has the lead in the west. I can see this being a very close finish with not a huge spread in the scores from top to bottom (of the regular participants), at this point everyone in that group is ahead of Normal. So for October, the contest as usual will ask you to predict temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... late penalties will be the usual starting at 06z on Monday October 1st, hoping I won't have to apply any. (the Regional Rumble is becoming a bit of a runaway train situation for NYC, three other regions are trying to keep up but rather difficult when NYC has such a heavy-hitting roster.)
  2. What kind of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season do you foresee? Our annual contest asks you to predict the total number of storms, and break it down by months. As you know, the "count" is total number of named storms, then total number of those that become hurricanes, and finally total number of hurricanes that become major (cat-3 or stronger). Last year the final count was 17/10/6 and our contest winner was Rockchalk83. The rules are fairly simple. You need to post a seasonal total by the deadline which I am setting as June 4th as we often seem to be getting entries past the season's June 1st starting point. I will try to expand the field by publicizing the contest in regional forums this year. Your seasonal total should include any developments in May, but if there is an outcome (GFS keeps showing a late May hurricane in the eastern Gulf) earlier forecasts that are backed up by monthly predictions will be adjusted if it appears that the May storm is not anticipated. Seasonals that have no complete monthly component will be left unadjusted as it could be assumed that the May storm is included. Last year, all entrants gave monthly predictions and almost all left them unedited, but the contest rules allow you to submit these up to 06z of the first of each month, or to revise them by that deadline. Note, there is no requirement for your monthly numbers to add up to your seasonal numbers and you can use decimal points to express uncertainty. Since most of the seasonal forecasts were the sum of the monthly predictions, I assumed that any May activity could be factored in. Some past years, we have had to deal with even earlier storms that happened before the contest announcement (January, April). I am going to post my forecast mostly as a guide to how your forecast should appear (not the numbers but the format) ... Roger Smith ____ 21 16 7 ____ (Jun) 2 1 0 _ (Jul) 1 1 0 __ (Aug) 4 3 2 __ (Sep) 7 5 3 __ (Oct) 5 4 2 __ (Nov-Dec) 1 1 0 (this assumes a 1 1 0 May, would be adjusted to 20 15 7 if 0 0 0 or 21 15 7 if 1 0 0) Scoring for the contest is as follows: 50% of the score is based on the seasonal. You start with 50 points and in each category, you lose half of (1 point per error plus that number squared). Example, you predict 16 storms, the actual is 19, your error is (3 + 3 squared)/2 = 12/2 = 6. If you had similar errors for hurricanes and majors, your total score would then be 32/50. The other 50% of the score is based on your monthly forecasts starting with June and ending with Nov-Dec. These are worth 4, 6, 12, 16, 10 and 2 points in order from June to Nov-Dec. Then the errors reduce your possible score in the same way as the seasonal formula, except that June, July and Nov-Dec go with half the reductions (in other words, you lose points at half the rate of the other more active months). In the past few years, highest scores in the contest have been close to 90 and seasonal scores of 48 to 50 have been achieved. A good monthly set will earn 41-43 points. Good luck if you enter. The deadline will be made more precise around June 1st and all entrants can edit up to the eventual deadline without notice, you can assume that I won't be copying down or storing any forecasts until a firm deadline is posted in the thread and up to that firm deadline, so no need to post new numbers, just edit the old ones. Once a table of entries appears, your numbers are set for the seasonal and June portions but you have the option of posting revised monthly numbers at any point during the contest before monthly deadlines. Late monthly revisions will be penalized at a rate of 10% per day but will not be valid after any named storm is declared in the month. As you see, I am expecting a very active season. There seems to be no particular reason why the outcome from 2017 would change very much this year, hopefully the majors will stay out to sea more often and avoid the sorts of landfalls that caused so much devastation in 2017.
  3. Provisional scoring -- based on Oct and Nov-Dec consensus forecasts At this point, I am going to show you the scoring based on current September 7/3/1 figures although it would not be overly surprising to see that change to 8/3/1 or some other variation. Then with that assumption, I calculate the scores for Oct (10 points) and Nov-Dec (2 points) based on our consensus forecasts being correct (2 1 1 for Oct, 1 0 0 for Nov-Dec). Those predictions are added to the current seasonal count (12/5/1) to generate a provisional seasonal total of 15/6/2. The scores shown here are not necessarily the best outcome for you, if your forecasts are higher than consensus you could score considerably more points in both that month and the seasonal, so as we move forward into October, the actual count will possibly cause changes in this table (if the count is not converging on these consensus values). Top twelve ranks are shown beside provisional totals -- the scoring table remains in same order as forecasts. Ranks for normals, consensus, NHC have an asterisk * beside number in brackets and do not affect lower ranked participants from this forum. These * type ranks are independent of each other (three are shown as 7th between 6th and 7th participant). ... Scoring will be updated as needed, if September goes to 8/3/1, scores generally decrease by 1 if your storm prediction was 7, by 2 if it was 6, and by 3 if it was 5. ... Scoring will be placed in order around mid-October. FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June ___ July _ August __ Sept ___ Oct _ Nov-Dec __ TOTAL (rank) ___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 _____ 6 ____ 12 _____ 16 ___ 10 ____ 2 ______ 100 Predictions in black, scores in red SRRTA22 __________________ 22 9 4 13__ 100 __2102.0 _ 3205.5 _ 420 6 _ 43110 _ 532 0 _ 321 0 ____ 36.5 Roger Smith _______________ 21 15 7 00__ 100 __2102.0 _ 1105.0 _ 432 0 _ 75310 _ 542 0 _ 1101.5 ___ 18.5 Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 22__ 100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 421 5 _ 84213 _ 220 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 56 Orangeburgwx ______________ 19 9 4 31___100 __1103.0 _ 2004.5 _ 752 0 _ 421 9 _ 311 9 _ 100 2 ____ 58.5 RJay ______________________ 19 9 3 33___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 431 1 _ 53212 _ 320 7 _ 100 2 ____ 62.5 jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 28__ 100 __2102.0 _ 3215.0 _ 421 5 _ 54211 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ____ 63 Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 35___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 422 3 _ 64213 _ 21110 _ 0001.5 ___ 70 Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 38___100 __3100.5 _ 3105.0 _ 321 7 _ 53212 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ___ 74.5 (10) jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 38___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 332 2 _ 53212 _ 320 7 _ 0001.5 ___ 68 mryanwilkes ________________ 17 9 4 38___100 __3200.0 _ 3114.5 _ 431 1 _ 53212 _ 100 7 _ 0001.5 ___ 64 BlunderStorm _______________ 17 9 4 38___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 54211 _ 321 8 _ 100 2 ____ 73 (12) UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 40___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 311 9 _ 65112 _ 210 9 _ 0001.5 ___ 78 ( 8 ) NorthArlington101 ___________ 17 8 4 41___100 __2102.0 _ 3105.0 _ 421 5 _ 53212 _ 21110 _ 0001.5 ___ 76.5 ( 9 ) ___ Consensus ______________17 8 3 43___100 __2102.0 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 53212 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ____ 79.5 ( 7* ) hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 46___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 21011 _ 320 4 _ 521 3 _ 100 2 ____ 72.5 ___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 45___100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 421 5 _ 64114 _ 321 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 81 ( 7* ) snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 48___100 __1003.5 _ 3105.0 _ 311 9 _ 62114 _ 210 9 _ 0001.5 ___ 90 ( 1 ) ncskywarn _________________ 15 11 4 32__ 100 __2102.0 _ 2206.0 _ 321 7 _ 432 9 _ 221 9 _ 1101.5 ___ 66.5 jburns _____________________15 8 4 44___100 __2002.5 _ 1105.0 _ 321 7 _ 54211 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ____ 81.5 ( 6 ) NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 48___100 __1103.0 _ 210 5.5_ 321 7 _ 421 9 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ____ 84.5 ( t-2 ) crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 47___100 __1003.5 _ 3215.0 _ 321 7 _ 421 9 _ 210 9 _ 0001.5 ____ 82 ( 5 ) cobalt _____________________ 14 6 2 49___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 321 5 _ 210 9 _ 100 2 ____ 79 ( 7 ) a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 46___100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53113 _ 321 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 83.5 ( 4 ) ___ NHC mid-range _________13 7 2.5 45.7_100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53113_320.57.6_0001.5 ___ 82.8 ( 5*) Yoda ______________________13 6 2 47___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 321 7 _ 521 12_ 110 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 84.5 ( t-2 ) OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 45___ 100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 520 3 _ 421 9 _ 110 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 74 (11) pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 38___ 100 __0004.0 _ 2105.5 _ 420 6 _ 321 5 _ 100 7 _ 0001.5 ___ 67 ________________________________________________________________________________ Contest means _____________16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2 _________________________________________________________________3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5 __________________________________________________________________________________2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0 ________scores ________________ 44.6 ___________2.7 ___ 5.2 ___ 5.2 ___ 12.1 ___ 8.9 ___ 1.8 ______ 80.5 ( 7* ) (Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)
  4. The contests are quite close, be sure to enter on time for September before the Labor Day weekend (and have a good one) ... As always, predict the temp anomaly (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA Good luck !!
  5. --- -- <<<<==== provisional Annual Scoring Jan - Sep 2018 ====>>>> -- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug or Sep). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^ ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________618 _648 _622 ___1888 ____ 488 _542 _454 ____1484 ___ 3372 __2*3*2 13*1 .2.1 __ MAY wxallannj __________ 528 _562 _588 ____1678 ____ 436 _482 _563 ____1481 ___ 3159 ___ 001 001 .0.0 DonSutherland.1 ___ 540 _554 _544 ____1638 ____ 427 _567 _513 ____1507 ___ 3145 ___ 000 220 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 511 _545 _570 ____1626 ____ 431_513 _547 ____1491 ___ 3117 ___ 000 100 .0.0 BKViking ___________502 _576 _583 ____1661 ____ 389 _471 _552 ____1412 ___ 3073 ___ 001 000 .0.1 jaxjagman _________ 518 _516 _532 ____1566 ____ 421 _521 _559 ____1501 ___ 3067 ___ 001 000 .0.1 hudsonvalley21 _____ 491 _526 _526 ____1543 ____ 389 _497 _629 ___ 1515___ 3058 ___ 000 001 .0.1 Tom ______________ 417 _445 _477 ____1603 ____ 353 _481 _391 ____1436 ___ 3039 ___ 002 000 .1.0 _ JUN RJay ______________498 _526 _549 ____1573 ____ 375 _530 _557 ____1462 ___ 3035 ___ 222 010 .2.2 _ APR, AUG RodneyS ___________488 _548 _532 ____1568 ____ 459 _455 _526 ____1440 ___ 3008 ___ 220 300 .0.4 _ MAR, JUL, SEP wxdude64 _________ 571 _528 _498 ____1597 ____ 426 _472 _505 ____1403 ___ 3000 ___34^0 002 .2.0 Stebo _____________ 455 _492 _516 ____1463 ____ 435 _506 _552 ____1493 ___ 2956 ___ 000 112 .0.1 Scotty Lightning (SD) _517 _521 _516 ___ 1554 ____ 403 _476 _511 ____1390 ___ 2944 ___2^11 103 .2^.1 _ JAN^ dmillz25 ___________ 455 _471 _487 ____1413 ____ 387 _494 _554 ____1435 ___ 2848 ___ 000 011 .0.0 ___Normal _________458 _473 _459 ____1390 ____ 372 _453 _407 ____1232 ___ 2622 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^ so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/9) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(5/9)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/9) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/9)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/9) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/9) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September all shown (2/9) missed March to September, Orangeburgwx (5/9) missed January, July, August, September  ... mappy (5/9) missed June to September, and H2OTown_wx (3/9) missed April to September.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 473 _ 662 _ 588 ____ 1723 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4667 (= 5 t) BKViking _______________404 _ 633 _ 601 ____ 1638 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4711 (= 4) __ JUN DonSutherland.1 ________ 460 _ 620 _ 519 _____1599 __________2^1 1 __ Jan ______ 4744 (= 2) _ JAN^ RodneyS_______________ 514 _ 628 _ 475 ____ 1617 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 4625 (= 7) MAR,APR,JUL hudsonvalley21 _________ 457 _ 589 _ 563 _____1609 __________ 0 2 1 __ Jul _______4667 (= 5 t) __ Consensus __________ 430 _ 624 _ 524 _____1578 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4695 (= 5) RJay __________________457 _ 556 _ 562 _____1575 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep _______4610 (= 8) __ SEP wxallannj ______________ 460 _ 644 _ 453 _____1557 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4716 (= 3) Roger Smith ____________411 _ 584 _ 548 _____1543 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan _______4915 (= 1) __ MAY Tom __________________ 470 _ 582 _ 488 _____1540 __________ 1 0 0 _____________4579 (= 9) dmillz25 _______________ 375 _ 596 _ 533 _____1504 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 4352 (=12) __Normal ______________422 _ 530 _ 498 _____1450 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 4072 (=13) __ FEB wxdude64 _____________ 436 _ 541 _ 433 _____1410 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 4410 (=11) jaxjagman _____________ 348 _ 546 _ 514 _____1408 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4475 (=10) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Stebo _________________ 274 _ 519 _ 310 _____1103 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4059 (=13) Orangeburgwx (5/9)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/9) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/9) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/9) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/9) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/9) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - September _) -- provisional for Sept REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL New York City _____ 1947 ____ 1766 ____ 1941 _____ 5654 Mid-Atlantic _______ 1968 ____ 1827 ____ 1739 _____ 5534 Philadelphia _______ 1911 ____ 1572 ____ 1777 _____ 5260 Central + Western __2042 ____ 1623 ____ 1589 _____ 5254 __ Consensus _____ 1626 ____ 1491 ____ 1578 _____ 4695 Tenn Valley _______ 1614 ____ 1501 ____ 1418 _____ 4533 __ Normal ________ 1390 _____1232 ____ 1450 _____ 4072 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1463 ____ 1493 _____1103 _____ 4059
  6. Provisional scoring for September 2018 Scores are based on latest posted estimates for end of month in previous post. Late penalty reductions of 1 or 2 per cent are in the score line, * for each point ... ... a separate reduced score line is shown for wxdude64 who drops 6%. High scores in red are also extreme forecast winners (at present). High score in orange is an extreme forecast winner from second most extreme (BOS) or tie on points due to late penalty reduction for extreme forecast (DCA). Score in orange with ^ symbol is extreme forecast "loss" (BOS). High scores in blue would be for coldest forecasts but this does not apply, scores in blue instead show results for coldest forecasts ... other high scores are in bold type. Raw scores for ATL and DEN are too low by rules, boosted to 60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-16-12-08-04 (no raw scores were above the progression). There was a four-way tie for 35 for ATL, also consensus which does not alter other scores, so the next score after 35 was 16 (two tied). FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west ___ TOTAL RJay ___________ NYC ____ 90 _ 80 _ 90 ___ 260 ___ 60 _ 60 _ 80 ___ 200 __ 460 ___ 60 _ 80_100__ 240____ 700 RodneyS ________ M A ____ 72 _100_ 92 ___ 264 ___ 84 _ 35 _ 96 ___215 __479 ___ 50 _ 70 _ 74 __ 194 ____ 673 Tom ___________ PHL _____82 _ 90 _ 98___ 270 ___ 58 _ 55 _ 82 ___ 195 __ 465 ___ 45 _ 66 _ 92 __ 203 ____ 668 Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ 82 _ 92 _ 94 ___ 268 ___50 _ 16 _ 94 ___ 160 __ 428 ___ 55 _ 66 _100__ 221 ____ 649 __ Consensus ____________ 70 _100 _ 92 ___ 262 ___ 40 _ 35 _ 96 ___ 171 __ 433 __ 30 _ 70 _ 92 __ 192 ____ 625 dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ 69*_ 96** 94**__ 259 ___ 29*_34*_88**__ 151 __ 410 ___ 39*_69*_98**_206 ____ 616 wxallannj _______ NYC ____ 72 _ 78 _ 92 ___ 242 ___ 40 _ 50 _ 90 ___ 180 __ 422 ___ 40 _ 80 _ 70 __ 190 ____ 612 BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ 67*_ 99*_ 91*__ 257 ___ 36 _ 04 _ 95*___ 135 __ 392 ___ 30 _ 65*_ 99*_ 194 ____ 586 DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ 68 _ 90 _ 70 ___ 228 ___ 44 _ 45 _ 88 ___ 177 __ 405 ___ 12 _ 80 _ 76 __ 168 ____ 573 jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ 60 _ 88 _ 68 ___ 216 ___ 26 _ 35 _ 94 ___ 155 __ 371 ___ 16 _ 78 _ 80 __ 174 ____ 545 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ 54 _ 82 _ 86 ___ 222 ___ 18 _ 16 _ 88 ___ 122 __ 344 ___ 25 _ 86 _ 88 __ 199 ____ 543 Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ 66 _ 96 _ 80 ___ 242 ___ 30 _ 40 _100 ___ 170 __ 412 ___ 08 _ 40 _ 60 __ 108 ____ 520 Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ 50 _ 60 _ 50 ___ 160 ___ 10 _ 35 _100 ___ 145 __ 305 ___ 25 _ 70 _ 90 __ 185 ____ 490 wxdude64 _______ M A ____96 _ 70 _ 74 ___ 240 ___ 62 _ 08 _ 72 ___ 142 __ 380 ___ 04 _ 62 _ 28 __ 094 _ 476 _________ (-6%) _________90 _ 66 _ 70 ___ 226 ___ 58 _ 08 _ 68 ___ 134 __ 360 ___ 04 _ 58 _ 26 __ 088 ____ 448 ___ Normal ___________20 _ 40 _30 __ 090 __ 00 _ 00 _80 __ 080 __ 170 __ 10 _ 50 _ 80 __140 ___ 310 ______________________________________________________________ Provisional scoring Regional Rumble for September 2018 Region ____________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ Totals New York City _______260 _____ 200 _____ 240 ______ 700 Mid Atlantic ________ 264 _____ 215 _____ 194 ______ 673 Philadelphia ________ 270 _____ 195 _____ 203 ______ 668 Central + Western ___ 268 _____ 160 _____ 221 ______ 649 __ Consensus _______ 262 _____ 171 _____ 192 ______ 625 TN Valley __________ 216 _____ 155 _____ 174 ______ 545 Great Lakes / OH val _ 242 _____ 170 _____ 108 ______ 520 ___ Normal _________090 _____ 080 _____ 140 ______ 310 __________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast summary (separate post will appear at final stage) DCA _ At +4.0, currently a tie on points after wxdude64 penalized from 96 to 90 .. RJay ties with score of 90 .. will go to wxdude64 if higher than +4.0. NYC _ At +3.0, not an extreme forecast win, 6th highest forecast has high score. BOS _ At +3.5, not an extreme forecast win, 5th highest forecast high score. ORD _ At +5.0, a win for RodneyS (+4.2). ATL _ At +6.4, a win for RJay (+2.5) -- this one more or less settled. IAH _ At +1.0, not an extreme forecast situation, outcome near consensus. DEN _ At +5.5, a win for RJay (+2.5) -- this one also more or less settled. PHX _ At +2.5, a win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.8). SEA _ At +1.0, not an extreme forecast win, result close to consensus. The annual standings will be revised when these outcomes are all settled. At the moment, RJay has 3 wins, RodneyS, wxdude64 and hudsonvalley21 have one each._________________________________________ Annual scoring update in next post.
  7. Updated anomaly tracker continued ... actuals compare with predictions made seven days before (colors same). __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8 ______ (14d) ______ +4.5 _+2.2 _+4.6 ___ +4.5 _+5.5 _--1.2 ___ +4.3 _+2.2 _+1.5 ______ (21d) ______ +5.1 _+3.3 _+4.8 ___ +6.5 _+6.7 _+0.8 ___ +6.2 _+2.6 _+0.5 ______ (24d) ______ +4.2 _+2.8 _+3.9 ___ +5.7 _+6.9 _+0.8 ___ +6.5 _+2.9 _+0.4 _____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4 _____ (p21d)_NWS __+4.0 _+3.0 _+4.5 ___ +6.0 _+6.0 __0.0 ___ +6.2 _+2.5 _+0.5 _____ (p28d)_NWS __+3.8 _+2.5 _+3.6 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+1.7 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _8th_ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0 15th_ (p30d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +4.5 _+4.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 22nd_ (p30d)_GFS*__ +4.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+2.0 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 25th_ (p30d)_NWS^__+4.0 _+3.0 _+3.5 ___ +5.0 _+6.4 _+1.0 ___ +5.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 * this entry uses seven days of NWS forecasts (see p28d above) and two days of GFS (29-30). ^ later entries will use only NWS forecasts after 24d. note: NWS forecasts did very well to 21st, the average error only 0.47 deg. (west almost perfect) 25th _ The anomalies through 24 days are posted, the comparison (orange) is to the 16-day forecast made on the 8th. That forecast, with nine days from GFS 8-16 day, with average error of 1.57 deg. That would equate to a contest score of 648 adjusted to 690 with the minimum scoring applied to ATL and DEN where these forecasts were most in error but still slightly warmer than our top forecasts. Without those two stations the average error was 0.97 deg. Provisionals have been changed on 25th for BOS (down 0.5) and IAH (down 1.0), also ATL/DEN are now even higher but scoring there is already settled by the minimum progression system (max score 60 etc).
  8. With Joyce the count goes to 5/3/1 but now has little chance of increasing in the major category as Helene failed to reach that level and Isaac never got much past minimal cat-1. The seasonal count is now 10/5/1. See previous post for other comments about how the contest wraps up into October.
  9. Seasonal Max 2018 contest -- updated Sep 11th ... no new max in August or early September, and table has now migrated to the September thread ... ... any changes will also be edited in here, ATL added one degree to 95 on Sept 14th and this changes the leaderboard as shown below. FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Max to date ____________ 98 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 94 __101 ___105 _ 116 __ 94 Scotty Lightning ____________103 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96 RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95 Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94 mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90 wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95 dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98 ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93 Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107 _ 122 __ 93 Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92 DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88 BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91 wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91 jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93 RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89 Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 (table of departures -- red numbers can get higher, black numbers can get lower) FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH_DEN_PHX_SEA __ Total DonSutherland.1 ____________1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 0 __ 6 _____ 18 wxallannj _________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 7 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 19 RodneyS __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 5 _____ 19 ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 7 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 21 wxdude64 _________________2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 22 BKViking __________________1 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____10 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 24 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 2 __ 3 _____ 6 __ 1 __ 4 _____ 24 so_whats_happening ________2 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 4 _____ 24 Stebo ____________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 8 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 25 jaxjagman ________________ 0 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 0 __ 4 __ 3 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 25 Roger Smith _______________ 2 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 1 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 26 RJay _____________________ 4 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 28 dmillz25 __________________ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 5 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 28 mappy ___________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 9 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 30 Tom _____________________ 4 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 31 Scotty Lightning ____________5 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 6 _____ 7 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 34 Orangeburgwx _____________1 __ 3 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 7 __ 0 ____ 18__11 __ 4 _____ 53 _____________________________________________________________ lowest total departures in each group: eastern three -- 4 __ DonS, wxallannj, jaxjagman, RodneyS central three -- 3 __ DonSutherland.1 western three -- 5 __ RJay most perfect forecasts (to date) __ 2 __ DonS, wxallannj, RodneyS, jaxjagman, Tom kept all departures within 4 deg __ so_whats_happening (5 __ RodneyS)
  10. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Despite the generally good performance of models recently in tracking hurricanes 72-96 hours out, is it not true that most of the errors have been actual tracks further right than forecast? I can think of several recent examples, and cannot recall a storm that went left of its predicted track around eastern U.S. landfall. So that might argue for some caution in this consensus about a southward drift and high impacts around Wilmington into SC. The typhoon that recently hit Japan was also a little to the right of its model track despite ominous signs at 48h that it might actually come in west (left). This one may prove to be an exception however.
  11. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Florence

    The interaction between a hurricane this powerful and a ridge that is best described as moderately strong west of 70W is so full of uncertainty that nobody north of the projected landfall zone should assume they are in any kind of impact-free situation. I think the most likely outcome is for a fast recurvature through the Mid-Atlantic (after the NC landfall) and probably a track through southern New England and across Nova Scotia. Intensity would likely be down to cat-1 or weak cat-2 by the time the center reaches central Chesapeake and tropical storm from about PHL to PWM. I am not seeing much justification for the offshore stalls, loops or southwest motion scenarios. Late October 1963 offered as one example was a time of very strong high pressure ridge formation and six weeks later than this in the season. SST values from the current location of the storm to the Cape Lookout to Hatteras zone currently average 29 C. There is almost no 500 mb wind field ahead of the storm at all excluding what it is producing locally. I don't see this ridge holding back the inevitable and most frequent solution of a steady recurve north and northeast over 48 hours after landfall. The impacts would be moderately severe for southeast VA, moderate for regions further north trending to less severe by NYC and New England. But nobody in those regions should be assuming they are just on the sidelines of Florence. Just my opinion and would say this scenario 50% likely, steady west then north movement 30% and the other loops and meanders about 20% likely.
  12. Don't feel bad about that post, the models had Florence turning north long before where the storm is now. And the original set of projections was a maximum intensity of strong tropical storm. Florence was kind enough to wait for the calendar to flip over before getting a name, so far I don't have any reason to issue two scoring tables. September is only one third over and already the count is 4/3/1 with a chance to go 4/3/2 or (outside chance) 4/3/3 if either Helene or Isaac make major hurricane status. The season is now up to 9/5/1 and could go to 9/5/2 or 9/5/3 with the existing storms. It seems like a wide-open contest at this point as we could go back into slumber mode, or keep up this new pace, or something in between. My habit is to start posting full scoring on a provisional basis once September is known, based on our consensus for Oct and Nov-Dec and then adjusting the scoring table whenever reality changes that consensus. So by mid-October you should have a pretty good idea how you stand in this contest.
  13. First report on anomalies and projections ... __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8 _____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4 _____ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0 No new seasonal max so far this month, contest table is back in the July thread.
  14. Looks like the eye is headed for either eastern Shikoku or the strait between that island and Honshu but in any case a second landfall will occur near Kobe just west of Osaka. Given the populations and port infrastructure of the two landfall areas, the second one will be more problematic. Hoping the first one weakens the storm enough that the second landfall will be less intense, perhaps a strong cat-1 as opposed to 2. Well it won't be long now looking at radar and satellite animations, the thing is accelerating NNE-ward. Roughly 15-20 million people live in the Osaka region then there's Nagoya one bay east, five million more there.
  15. Forecasts for September, 2018 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxdude64 _ (-6%) _M A ___ +4.2 _+4.5 _+4.8 ___ +3.1 _+0.5 _--0.4 ___ --1.9 _+0.6 _--2.6 RJay ___________ NYC ____ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 Tom ___________ PHL _____+3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +2.9 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___ +1.6 _+0.8 _+0.6 Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.8 ___ +2.5 _+0.7 _+0.7 ___ +2.4 _+0.8 _+1.0 wxallannj _______ NYC ____ +2.6 _+4.1 _+3.9 ___ +2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.5 _--0.5 RodneyS ________ M A ____ +2.6 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +4.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ +1.8 _+1.0 _--0.3 dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ +2.5 _+2.9 _+3.3 ___ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ Consensus ____________ +2.5 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+0.6 BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ +2.4 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+0.8 _+1.0 DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+1.4 _+0.4 ___ +0.1 _+1.5 _+2.2 Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0 jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ +2.0 _+2.4 _+1.9 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___ +0.3 _+1.4 __0.0 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ +1.7 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.6 ___ +0.5 _+1.8 _+1.6 Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ____0.0__0.0__0.0 ____ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ______________________________________________________________ color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, however, Normal is colder for first five.
  16. Since it's 945 mb out in the open Pacific now, more likely to be around 950-955 at landfall perhaps? Seems to be only a strong cat-2 or weak cat-3 at present.
  17. Will have some on-scene reports from my travelling friends who are going to ride this out in Kyoto, supposed to be within 50 miles of the eye around 06z to 08z (Tuesday afternoon JST). This is a radar I will be watching to check the exact track of Jebi. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Good satellite imagery here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms150jp/ It is midnight in the region now so about 12-15 hours to landfalls and impacts (first Shikoku Island, eastern half, then near Kobe west of Osaka, storm accelerates and moves across Honshu in a few hours and then at TS intensity up the north coast as far as western Hokkaido). My friends are in a modern style hotel that is a smaller building than some nearby, and the whole area is flat but 45 metres above sea level so I'm thinking no real flooding or tsunami potential, they are also on the west side of the building so much of the storm will be producing east to south winds and they are relatively sheltered from those. If the track stays a bit west, should be close to remnants of eyewall during height of storm, hoping for some interesting accounts if not pictures. Told them to expect a bit of a cleanup day outside on Wednesday then back to normal.
  18. our seasons contest update SUMMER 2018 (June, July, August) ______________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals) FORECASTER ______ (original six) __ Points ___ (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points wxallannj _____________1470 ___ 10__________ 606 ______ 1________ 2076 _____10 ___ Consensus ________ 1400 ___ 5 __________ 614 ______ 2 ________2014 _____ 7 BKViking _____________ 1406 ____ 7 __________607 ______ 1 _______ 2013 _____ 7 Don Sutherland.1 ______ 1346 ____ 5 __________632 ______ 6 _______ 1978 _____ 6 Tom _________________1402 ____ 6 __________562 ______ 1 ________1964 _____ 5 (t) dmillz25 ______________1322 ____ 1 __________ 642 ______ 7 ________1964 _____ 5 (t) hudsonvalley21_________1300 ____ 1 __________658 ______10 ________1958 _____ 3 Scotty Lightning ________1344 ____ 4 __________604 ______ 1 ________ 1948 _____ 2 RodneyS _____________ 1312 ____ 1 __________ 627 _____ 4 t________ 1939 _____ 1 RJay _________________1294 ____ -- _________ 630 ______ 5 ________ 1924 _____ 1 jaxjagman ____________ 1342 ___ 3 __________ 545 ______ -- ________ 1887 _____ 1 Roger Smith ___________1334 ___ 2 __________ 552 ______ -- ________ 1886 _____ -- wxdude64 _____________1232 ___ -- __________ 627 ______ 4 t_______ 1859 _____ -- Stebo _________________1279 ___ -- _________ 465 ______ -- ________ 1744 _____ -- ___Normal ____________1130 ___ -- ___________530 ______ -- ________1660 _____ -- so_whats_happening (2/3)_862 ___ -- __________365 _____ -- _________ 1227 _____ -- Four Seasons total points to date ... listed in order of all nine total points ... FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4, 5 _____14 _____ 7, 4, 6 ____ 17 ____ 6, 4, 6 ___ 16 wxallannj ___________2, 1, 10 ___ 13 ______ 1, 5, 1 _____ 7 ____ 2, 3, 10 ___15 Scotty Lightning _____10, 0, 4 ____ 14 _____ 10, 6, 1 ___ 17 ____10, 0, 2 ____12 BKViking ___________ 3, 0, 7 _____10 _____ 1, 7, 1 _____ 9 ____ 3, 2, 7 ____ 12 ___ Consensus ____2, 1, 5 ____ 8 _____ 3, 4, 2 ____ 9 ___ 4, 1, 7 ___ 12 Roger Smith _________1,10, 2 ___ 13 ______ 5, 0, 0_____ 5 ____ 4, 7, 0 _____11 RodneyS ____________ 0, 7, 1 ____ 8 ______ 1,10, 4 ___ 15 ____ 0,10, 1 ____ 11 hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1, 1 _____ 9 _____ 3, 2,10 ____ 15 ____ 7, 1, 3 ____ 11 Tom _______________ 0, 5, 6 ____ 11 _____ 6, 1, 1 _____ 8 ____ 0, 5, 5 ____ 10 wxdude64 __________ 4, 6, 0 _____10 _____ 0, 0, 4 _____ 4 _____1, 6, 0 ____ 7 ___Normal __________ 7, 0, 0 _____ 7 _____ 6, 0, 0 _____ 6 _____7, 0, 0 ____ 7 so_whats_happening __ 6. 0, 0 _____ 6 _____ 2, 3, 0 _____ 5 ____ 5, 0, 0 ____ 5 dmillz25 _____________1, 0, 1 _____ 1 ______0, 1, 7 ____ 8 _____ 0, 0, 5 ____ 5 RJay ________________1, 1, 0 _____ 2 _____ 0, 2, 5 ____ 7 _____ 1, 1, 1 ____ 3 H2O_Town__WX ______0, 0, 0 _____ 0 _____ 5, 0, 0 ____ 5 _____ 1, 0, 0 ____ 1 jaxjagman ___________ 0, 0, 3 _____ 3 _____ 0, 0, 0 ____ 0 _____ 0, 0, 1 ____ 1 (only forecasters with any points are in table)
  19. Predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010) : DCA__NYC__BOS___ORD__ATL__IAH___DEN__PHX__SEA My forecast is included, may be off-line until late August 1st (on time deadline is 06z 1st) ... +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0_ +3.5
  20. Extreme Forecast Update -- August 2018 Rjay (+3.0 all three) scores three for the eastern locations (DCA, NYC, both +2.9 and BOS +5.3). Roger Smith (+2.5, +3.5) scores two for ORD (+3.9) and SEA (+2.7). Don Sutherland (+0.1) scores one for DEN (-0.1) , Normal also gets a win. For PHX (+0.4), wxdude64 (+0.8) and Normal have wins, RodneyS (-0.9) has a loss. updated annual standings Roger Smith __________13###-0 (can fall to 10-0 see below) RodneyS _____________ 7-3 RJay ________________ 7-2 __ Normal ____________ 6-5 wxdude64 ____________ 5-0 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below) DonSutherland1 ________4-1 wxallannj _____________3-0 Scotty Lightning (SD)____3-1 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 2-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 BKViking ______________1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 Tom _________________ 0-1 * no decision (Mar for IAH) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.
  21. The clock has run out on TD6 as a potential named storm in August, the 03z advisory maintains it as a tropical depression, so its future exploits (if any) will belong to September. The scores listed above will now become confirmed for the contest to date.
  22. +3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.8 __ +2.5 _ +0.7 _ +0.7 __ +2.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.0
  23. Just for clarification, the contest rules state that storms that begin their life cycle in a given month then go on to count in that month regardless of when they begin the higher stages, but I always score both ways so people can compare. It has often happened in past contests that an Aug 30 or 31 storm becomes a hurricane in early September (all counting for August). As to the timing of the named storm portion, that has been based on EDT in the past contests, not UTC. That effectively means that 03z is the cutoff for this system (No. 6) to count in August. If it isn't a tropical storm by 03z, its further development goes into September. Classification as T.D. Six would not change the timing. I can't see anyone being adversely affected by Florence hitting the books for August so I think we're all rooting for this -- most scores would gain about 2 or 3 points.
  24. 12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps. The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target. Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4. You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses.
  25. --- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Aug 2018 ====>>>> -- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^ ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________536 _556 _528 ___1620 ____ 438 _526 _360 ____1324 ___ 2944 __2*3*2 13*1 .2.1 __ MAY DonSutherland.1 ___ 472 _464 _474 ____1410 ____ 383 _522 _425 ____1330 ___ 2740 ___ 000 220 .0.1 wxallannj __________ 456 _484 _496 ____1436 ____ 396 _432 _473 ____1301 ___ 2737 ___ 001 001 .0.0 hudsonvalley21 _____ 437 _444 _440 ____1321 ____ 371 _481 _541 ___ 1393___ 2714 ___ 000 001 .0.1 jaxjagman _________ 458 _428 _464 ____1350 ____ 395 _486 _465 ____1346 ___ 2696 ___ 001 000 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 441 _445 _478 ____1364 ____ 391_478 _451 ____1320 ___ 2684 ___ 000 100 .0.0 BKViking ___________435 _477 _492 ____1404 ____ 353 _467 _457 ____1277 ___ 2681 ___ 001 000 .0.1 wxdude64 _________ 481 _462 _428 ____1371 ____ 368 _464 _437 ____1269 ___ 2640 ___24^0 002 .2.0 Scotty Lightning (SD) _467 _461 _466 ___ 1394 ____ 393 _441 _411 ____1245 ___ 2639 ___2^11 102 .2^.1 _ JAN^ RJay ______________408 _446 _459 ____1313 ____ 315 _470 _477 ____1262 ___ 2575 ___ 122 001 .2.1 __ APR, AUG Tom ______________ 417 _445 _471 ____1333 ____ 353 _481 _407 ____1241 ___ 2574 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN Stebo _____________ 389 _396 _436 ____1221 ____ 405 _466 _452 ____1323 ___ 2544 ___ 000 111 .0.1 RodneyS ___________416 _448 _440 ____1304 ____ 375 _420 _430 ____1225 ___ 2529 ___ 210 200 .0.3 _ MAR, JUL ___Normal _________438 _433 _429 ____1300 ____ 372 _453 _327 ____1152 ___ 2452 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^ dmillz25 ___________ 386 _375 _393 ____1154 ____ 358 _460 _466 ____1284 ___ 2438 ___ 000 011 .0.0 so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/8) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(5/8)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/8) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/8)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/8) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/8) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July all shown (2/7) missed March to August, Orangeburgwx (5/8) missed January, July, August.  ... mappy (5/8) missed June to Aug, and H2OTown_wx (3/8) missed April to August.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 448 _ 592 _ 498 ____ 1538 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4177 (= 2) BKViking _______________374 _ 568 _ 502 ____ 1444 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4125 (= 4) __ JUN DonSutherland.1 ________ 448 _ 540 _ 443 _____1431 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _______4171 (= 3) _ JAN^ RodneyS_______________ 464 _ 558 _ 401 ____ 1423 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 3952 (= 8) _ MAR, APR, JUL hudsonvalley21 _________ 432 _ 503 _ 475 _____1410 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jul _______4124 (= 5) __ Consensus __________ 400 _ 554 _ 432 _____1386 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4070 (= 7) wxallannj ______________ 420 _ 564 _ 383 _____1367 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4104 (= 6) Tom __________________ 425 _ 516 _ 396 _____1337 __________ 1 0 0 _____________3911 (=10) RJay __________________397 _ 476 _ 462 _____1335 __________ 2 1 0 _____________3910 (=11) Roger Smith ____________356 _ 518 _ 448 _____1322 __________ 2 0 1 __ Jan _______4266 (= 1) __ MAY wxdude64 _____________ 432 _ 483 _ 407 _____1322 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 3962 (= 7) __Normal ______________412 _ 480 _ 418 _____1310 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 3762 (=12) __ FEB dmillz25 _______________ 336 _ 527 _ 435 _____1298 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 3736 (=12) jaxjagman _____________ 332 _ 468 _ 434 _____1234 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3930 (= 9) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Stebo _________________ 266 _ 479 _ 250 _____ 995 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3539 (=13) Orangeburgwx (5/8)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/8) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/8) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/8) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/8) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/8) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - August _) REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL New York City _____ 1687 ____ 1566 ____ 1701 _____ 4954 Mid-Atlantic _______ 1704 ____ 1612 ____ 1545 _____ 4861 Central + Western __1774 ____ 1463 ____ 1368 _____ 4605 Philadelphia _______ 1641 ____ 1377 ____ 1574 _____ 4592 __ Consensus _____ 1364 ____ 1320 ____ 1386 _____ 4070 Tenn Valley _______ 1398 ____ 1346 ____ 1244 _____ 3988 __ Normal ________ 1300 _____1152 ____ 1310 _____ 3762 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1221 ____ 1323 _____ 995 _____ 3539
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