wxsniss

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That's a great graphic to illustrate it!   18z was probably half way there.  More ticks to. come most likely but we're running out of time also.

If the goalposts are GFS and Euro, we are golden.

Still would rather Euro continue to trend towards GFS to give us more buffer.

It's really striking how steady the GFS has been with this vs. Euro cycling back 10+ runs.

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It actually keeps light snow going through Saturday night-inverted trof effect?  

Kind of similar to the trailing energy today. As Tip called it, the "leitmotif". Feels like variation of today's theme, except a much more robust system and earlier commitment to secondary before decay.

0z / 12z... I think this is a significant step towards the consensus (led by king GFS?)

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro with a tick colder but not by a lot.  Still going in the right direction and is the warmest model at this point.   I did not even look at the ICON-perhaps it is warmer but my use of time did not include losing the precious few moments. of my dwindling time on earth....

You're right... it's not by much. But it does transfer to the secondary a tick faster than 12z.

There it is... 0z Euro is starting to cave... can see a transfer by 12z Sat

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a conspiracy theory ... 

 ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? 

This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then.   Hmm   Who here loves a good coincidence ?!

I commented on this last night... GFS has been remarkably steady for ~10 runs now. Euro quite the opposite, with steps north that (hopefully) may have overshot by over-amplifying the primary and holding on too long.

So... in the growing chatter about dethroning the king, this upcoming system will be one of the more prominent showdowns of GFS vs. Euro.

14 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Portrait of a decaying system

The best dynamics never made it further northeast. For most of eastern MA, aside from that first hour last night, pretty meager rates and snowgrowth everywhere.

Compounded by warming temps since 12z today, this had no chance even with northern stream infusion this afternoon.

I can't find a single forecast (including stereotypically conservative forecasters like Dave Epstein) that had 0-2" for northeastern half of MA.

Haven't looked carefully to decipher it, but there must be some impact of having this current system pass on the upcoming confluence. Maybe trends tonight (beginning with this 18z GFS we hope) will reflect that.

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Most areas are cooked except higher elevations. 

Ironically, one of the rare instances when Dave Epstein put out a forecast that was not conservative, and that too busted

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

An inch which is now turning to slop as light non accumulating snow falls (aka white rain) 

Disappointing for sure. I thought this event would surely top Feb 23.

Kudos to Boston metro schools for not simply using the surplus of unspent school days

Do we get a single warning event this year...

Best rates were in the first hour 1-2am... but for the most part dry air and poor snowgrowth quickly turned this into an under-performer for eastern Mass overnight

The best dynamics simply did not survive this far northeast compared to CT

I wonder how qpf compares to the robust mesos yesterday

And for the rest of the day... mesos aren't giving me confidence that we see rates sufficient to overcome temps currently above freezing past 495 belt

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yup-I just noticed it was snowing and long enough to coat everything up.  Feels cold too.  

Wetbulbed a bit too, now 29/26

Mesos tempered a bit but still think we see >4”

Your elevation will help

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro is furthest north, ukmet/cmc is an unholy alliance.   Gfs believe in or not is the middle ground.

...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs

Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run 

0z Euro is congrats Montreal... its northernmost run yet

Maybe this storm will be remembered for how the CMC scored an astonishing upset?

First flakes Brookline ~1am

Took a while to overcome dry lower levels

31/27

Where is it snowing?

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think there may be a bit of an oversell on the BL warming potential ... suspect maybe at Logan itself, but the west side of the city...draw a line down to NE RI and I don't have as much issue E of that imaginary line...   West of there probably has more NNE or NE, and this cold is loaded enough clear up that it's not going anywhere if you ask me

- which you didn't.. just sayn'

Let's hope so. Will be a nowcast.

With guidance trends at 18z, BL temps seem to be the main reason we don't have more widespread WSW east of ORH.

18z GFS as others have said...

No longer just a blip on a few mesos... GFS also a tick colder in latter part of storm, BL temps will be critical for eastern areas

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

sssh... know what'd be funny?  the secondary develops more than thought and the east gets most in now-cast

There's definite hint of that on mesos... we discussed this last night... I think a key ingredient seems to be a late-game bit of infusion of northern stream energy 

Wow... (18z 3k NAM)

Another bump up following good trends this afternoon...

Box following high-res guidance with more widespread 6-8... 

Mesos leading the comeback here at 12z... that was a big boost up by Euro across CT/western MA.

If mesos have any clue, that boost will propagate eastward in guidance tonight.

Mesos showing a boost to eastern SNE as a bit of northern stream energy infuses in at the end...

If we didn't have potential BL issues with not the strong rates during the day Tuesday, I'd be more confident in more widespread 3-6 / 4-8

12z HREF continues robust... very similar to 0z I posted last night