wxsniss

16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Pretty, pretty good

Reasons to "curb your enthusiasm" are shrinking...

You could see since last night that momentum was east, and models just struggled to sort out low consolidation until converging on tonight's consensus among EPS, Euro, CMC, UK. GFS the clear outlier.

Verbatim, the B word is warranted.

18z Tues:

925mb winds:

Surface:

For eSNE, BEST Euro solution yet!!!!

Now a consolidated low by Tues 12z

The dual low / disorganized solutions on guidance earlier today were steps in an evolution towards what we're now seeing on CMC / Euro... GFS is the clear outlier

Synoptically and at H5 thru 48h much more like CMC than GFS

Any experience/thoughts on how the potential counterclockwise backing-in would impact snowfall rates? Akin to surge impacted by approach of hurricanes, I'm guessing the west/southwest-ward approach (vs. the more typical northeast-ward approach) might enhance snowfall, but not sure if there's any truth to that.

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good.  The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed.  It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change?  I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats.  At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps.  Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches;  Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective.  I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them.  But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying.  A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest.  Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days.  Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol

 

 

Agree not sure where the need (?expectation) of precise numbers this far out.

Should be perfectly acceptable to put a region-wide alert for potential of heavy snow + winds, stay tuned for detailed TBD. Unnecessarily setting themselves up for criticism.

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They are obviously very gun shy  with the idea of a a Strong CCB thru 8pm Thursday .

one of the more consistent features (if there has been one ) is the N stream heavy precip over Catskills and Berks and to a lesser degree the monads and they are keying in on that .

Also they probably have a good bit of continuity in their forecast and I think they would probably up elevations in NE CT and I would guess that if the CCB works out you can tack on 6-9” to that map? Where that hits 

Id like to see their 10% or maximum map to see their confidence level which I assume is low 

I’d have more confidence northcentral CT up to ORH than depicted… that area pretty consistently hit 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Box map is an absolute mess . I mean beyond lol

Agree this will likely change… unless anticipating further east all happens after 8pm Tuesday, and guidance has trended later with the further east captures 

Actually fairly decent <100 mile consensus for low track, furthest NW tracks into SE SNE, most tracks seem to be around islands / elbow / east of the Cape

Quick glance looks like 12z Euro only one with dual low / 12z UK with nipple, but otherwise NAM/GFS/CMC look consolidated

Momentum seems to be east with a more dominating SRN shortwave that gets boosted but not stretched by infusion of NRN energy... for ESNE, good trend to see given that SRN shortwave was sampled this morning

Discussed this yesterday

SRN stream vorticity getting better sampling this morning and if more robust expected a tic east

Major power issues, 925mb winds:

13 minutes ago, Henry&#x27;s Weather said:

Anyone got the QPF mean?

For QPF mean, note this is 24hr so some far west QPF is cut off:

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS stalls east of the elbow. 

Contrast to 12z when most members went inland:

0z 90hr:

0z 96hr:

Several 966 members in there.

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

Euro definitely could be wrong. But the trend towards a more eastern solution over 12z-18z-0z today makes me think improved sampling of NRN stream (which is now mostly over land) played a role. SRN stream I believe will be fully sampled over land Saturday, so we'll see how the 12z suite plays out tomorrow. IF SRN stream samples more robust, I think there's potential for more southeast tics.

In any case, good to see the whiffs are completely off the table tonight.

After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours

Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout

Would be widespread power issues

925mb winds at 90hr:

hours 90-96 absolutely crushed in much of SNE

low grazes Cape, captures at elbow

for eastern folks, exactly what we wanted to see at 0z... all the big leagues Euro, GFS, CMC with a widespread big hit, and Euro arguably the best of them

early trend was ridge out west slightly more stout along Tip's x-axis

Tues blizzard in much of SNE

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its related to scooter's appendage becoming less prominent.

Had to dig back pages to clarify that lol

Just looked at 0z NAM... that would be aiming for history. 4/97 ULL emerged off Delaware.

Away all day, so much to catch up.

One quick very favorable impression from 18z/0z runs... love that the ULL is now closing completely south of SNE on every single piece of guidance. That was not the case earlier today.

Top image 3/31/97 12z, Bottom image 4/1/97 3z

ULL dug much further south and ultimately stacking occurred further south

As much as I revere that event, it's not totally outlandish that this could have some similarities

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boston area would want a tick SE. 128 west ftw.

Yeah Boston area risks a flip mid-day Tuesday going by 925s

Looks like all snow and huge hit somewhere between 128-495 out to central MA, down to CT, up to southern NH

For eastern SNE, we want a few ticks further southeast for more buffer... 4/97 center never got north of islands

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Half of the QPF is going to be rain in eastern areas, mostly in the beginning.

Not true, verbatim minor qpf at the beginning, minor qpf after it's occluded and drifting away...

Otherwise for the meat of the heaviest rates, 925 temps on up will dictate and that's heavy snow.

Tuesday mid-day might be close. I'd want a tick southeast for a bit more buffer in Boston metro.

better ridge axis over Montana + southern stream more amped and ticked east + northern stream digs more

there's almost a fujiwara interaction between the 2 streams before prolonged closure of ULL over Boston harbor

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As long as it doesn't occlude, you want the insane deepening. That is what produced the intense banding....you want rate of max intensification as it approaches and bypasses the area. Its not just about track, but catching the system in the right stage of its lifecycle....you don't want the banded, occluded menopausal lows.

In addition to track, another reason we want the south stream to shoot further east + later capture

40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m kind of salivating on the 90 hour 18z euro look tbh.

Maybe the best 12z Monday look I've seen... extrapolating, southern stream would shoot out farther east + stronger north stream to capture it. Later capture, and less amped southern stream translate to less likelihood hugger. With the smeared baroclinic field, we'll need that kind of thread-the-needle for a big SNE hit. 

Haven't had much time to post but so thankful there is something legit to track.