wxsniss

Hyannis, pounding snow right at the water...

https://masswebcams.com/hyannis-harbor-webcam/

Yeah even in this 15z-21z window of best omega (inside 495 belt), there was never complete saturation ~700 and above

Changed over to mostly snow in Brookline, ok dendrites.

15z HRRR says we have maybe 2 hours to get a coat-1" lol

Unreal winters continue. We had ~4 hours of magic on Jan 7.

Maybe it's just me, but the disappointment stings even more when the lay public mocks the field/science (and hobby) of meteorology after such a forecasting debacle.

Box from earlier this morning, still expected snow even to Logan:

8:30 AM Update:

It is apparent that snow moved in faster than all models had
predicted this morning with portions of interior Connecticut
well overperforming compared to previous forecasts (several
reports of 7"+ have were received prior to 8 AM out of Hartford
County).

With temperatures above freezing in the Boston Metro area, we
have yet to see a change to snow in the city as well as along
the immediate coastline. Temperatures should cool over the next
couple of hours allowing precip to switch to snow even at the
airport in Winthrop, but delays in the changeover will impact
how much snow accumulates in the city. As for timing, a
changeover should occur by 16Z for any ares still experiencing
rain.

Dendrites are quite large with this system which will contribute
to some rapid accumulations. Some observers have reported inch
per hour rates over the last hour or two

Plain rain, 36/33 in Coolidge Corner

Best soundings in Boston metro were 15z-21z, and best radar returns of event so far are overhead, but not even flakes mixing in. Temps look like CF wrapped around city between 128-495. 

717 day record will hold.

Can’t believe snow emergency and region-wide school cancellations were called so early on Monday

Congrats to folks in CT

57 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Snowing in Hartford, visibility dropped fast. 

Radar looks really good to me personally, at least for MOST of CT to receive a minimum of 3-6".

Take it and run. 

Wife and I have been in labor and delivery room in Hartford since 11 am. 

A snow baby. What a gift for a weenie. 

Congrats!!!!

Agree radar looking better than the mesos had us thinking last evening

Great band setting up now across CT matches 700mb fronto, can see it on 6z NAM

Will tick slowly northeast by 12z

6z 12kNAM qpf below, shifted ~25 miles north

Decent dynamics and colder 15z-18z

Near Plymouth at 18z:

Sizable tick north on 6z NAM

35 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

that looks like bright banding to me

Yeah you might be right I'm not sure... the most intense echoes do look narrow and stationary, but surrounding echoes less so and are moving northeast.

In any case, this feels like microdissecting radar hallucinations, but whether or not echoes hit a wall at ~Susquehanna county in northeast PA (HRRRs) or actually reach the northern PA-NY border (GFS) in the next 5 hours will be telling.

@NotSureWeatherpointed this out:

Convection (circled below) not really on any models for Tues 6z... up against the northwest wall of dry air, and models have it dissipate as low transfers off Delmarva, but hopefully this translates at least to CT folks

Tomorrow will be 717 days and counting for KBOS ≥ 4"... if we don't end the streak before December 2024, we will be at 1000 days... completely off the charts for records since 1891.

On 2/9/2024 at 12:33 PM, jbenedet said:

This event is lost on me so far. Still…

Looking for the perceived “wall” in the northeast; I don’t see it—not at the surface, 850 or 500. Certainly not a high enough wall for potent shortwave to overcome, with long wave spacing that has the span of the CONUS to amplify…850 cold anoms are on the back side of this; not out ahead over the northeast US or SE Canada. That’s a red flag arguing against suppression. 

There’s also a flip flop in NAO conditions as the storm makes its closest approach, neg state to positive. Less confluence; warmer. It also means faster track. With that, I believe the 12z GFS seems like the best case scenario; snow-wise. I wouldn’t benchmark that as the most likely outcome.  

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Oh the leader of the snow weenie pack.

Guy still lost.

CON-fluence. BS. Effin’ UL +height anoms over our heads. Has been that way for days.

 

Northern stream shortwave (kicker) kickin’ weenies in the nuts.

Funny

Maybe this was meant to provoke for fun, but worth saying anyway: ORH_wxman is by far one of the most knowledgeable, accurate, level-headed, and valuable posters on this forum.

Perhaps you can teach people here something: what distinguishes a phasing energy from a kicker, and why in this case did the northern stream energy transition from the former to the latter on guidance?

19 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

What are we looking for exactly? Expanding precip further north?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-OH_RV-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I actually got to have dinner with him following a bet one of us won-can't remember who...lol.  We were trying to bring in one of the big snows hitting DC during the 2009-10 winter.  He kept showing me the nam on his phone but alas it was not to be.   I had known him from Scott Simard on ne.weather, Scottne on irc, messenger and then Clinch Leatherwood here (another name too maybe?).  

also "Rollo Tomasi"... felt like one of my closest friends that I've never met in real life

Definitely not the debacle that UK/Euro were earlier for inside 495 and southeast... H7 low in a decent spot. 

As Tip said, from the lay public's perspective, at least would look like a snow storm for a while justifying all the closings. Though I'm not at all confident this is the final outcome.

18z GFS H7:

Nauseating

And had some high stakes decisions about tomorrow based on American guidance as well (12k/3kNAM, GFS, HREF) and considering that 12z NAM/GFS even ticked better than 6z runs

Happens to be American vs. foreign models (Euro, UK, Canadians)

I had pointed out last night about this chasing convection on the 0z Euro, but gives pause seeing it double down on that

UA analysis will be informative later this afternoon to see if this shortwave energy trajectory is more east vs. northeast

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Today was the messenger shuffle day.  Tomorrow likely will feature a tick or 2 back north.  Not much difference either way from my perspective.

For a change, we've had a comfortable buffer with this one (pike region). 

Much more impactful shift for those on margins: Philly went from 1" at 12z to 11" at 0z.

H5 looks about same, but the shift begins to appear at 30h (6z Tues) when the shortwave takes a more easterly than northeasterly trajectory. Confluence is a bit stronger but I'm not certain that's the biggest cause that early. In any case, south is the theme tonight, but as you say I wouldn't be shocked to see this tick north tomorrow. 

18z GFS adds to strong consensus for intense CCB ≥1-2"/hr snows 15z-18z eSNE, should be a wild morning

Crushing at 15z KBOS on 12z NAM and 18z 3kNAM

(tossing 18z NAM... looks like may chased some convection?)

0z Euro very close to 12z except maybe moves out a hair faster so not as gangbuster closing in eSNE

Intense CCB 12z-18z Tues

Amazing how stable Euro/GFS guidance has been relative to rest of season

Very high confidence for 6-12" across most of SNE, spots 10-14", maybe even spots 14-18" with ratios and steep fronto

Huge factors for eSNE are (1) how quickly temps cool, as currently shown start of in low-mid 30s for a few hours, and (2) any bit of capture prolonging this even 2-3 more hours will translate to additional ~3-6" at those rates 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice hit interior. Pretty warm first half on the coast. 

The "shoot the moon" side of me, given this winter, is rooting for <4" at Logan to ensure our ongoing record (715 days?) is insurmountable for generations

Actually a tick north + a bit warmer to start at Tues 12z + wetter... ie., Euro converging with GFS

All reflective of slightly more NS interaction you can see even at 60 hrs... and honestly can't rule out even more

Verbatim quick crushing for most of SNE into sNH, 6-12" with maybe 10-14" jacks ~ central-northeast CT to northeast MA... Boston metro 4-8"/6-10" depending on surface temps to start  

Euro / GFS vs. JV models at this point

For this season, we're not used to seeing such concordance and stability of guidance at 96 hours.

Really only GGEM / UK are off but slowly coming around.

And decent buffer for pike region up to NH.

Nice to see relative stability for once this winter... Euro is now 24 hours of runs showing 6-12+ for SNE

Factors favoring positive busts include better fronto pressed against the cold, and maybe a bit more / earlier NS infusion especially for areas further north like MA/NH border into CNE (though that interaction could also keep the SS more disjointed as in yesterday GGEM runs)

Factors favoring tempering expectations include exit speed of system and warm surface temps at least at first few hours in coastal areas