wxsniss

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

That's the 18z run... 0z run was better for eSNE... clear trend to bring that CCB closer

Reggie again also might be snowing by 18z, sooner than depicted, based on 925 temps and up

Great trends so far at 0z placing the loop-de-loop just scraping the Cape

Tic

NAM!!

keeps hope alive in eastern SNE

It's probably too late and overwhelmed by guidance at this point, but if we're looking potential of a positive bust (at least for eastern SNE), we want the IVT feature to weaken faster and shut off warming midlevel temps... I'm looking at 850 winds here... the less westerly, the weaker the feature:

Tues 6z off Euro:

Most relevant portions of 446pm AFD:

...There still remains some uncertainty on exact snow amounts across the lower elevations, including eastern MA and Boston...

Still dealing with lots of critical differences in the latest guidance suite. While gaining confidence in some aspects of the forecast, still some lingering questions with the precise details.

Among the guidance, we discounted the 12Z NAM, which looked to be a far western outlier with its track. This forecast was based more on the idea of the storm staying just offshore of eastern MA. All the guidance had a little pinwheel effect with the surface low pressure at some point tomorrow into tomorrow night. The critical question is where this happens. The main concern for this will be related to temperatures, which are rather marginal already. A more westward jog to this low pressure will mean armer air and less snow towards the coast.

Another complicating factor to the snowfall forecast will be the timing and track of a dry slot in the dendritic growth zone. This looks like it will impact southeast MA and portions of RI. This will limit snowfall simply because the snowflakes themselves will not be as large or well formed.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How is reggie no snow after 15z out to 495 with that track?

Ha that's actually not a terrible run for eastern SNE... 925s are like -2C after 15z, that would be something like 36-37˚C heavy snow

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even Kuchera map is trying to give you like 10" in 6 hours, lol

High stakes for eastern SNE (among CT and other places with this storm). "non-linear" changes as you put it is so appropriate. It really wouldn't take much for a widespread 8-12" for eastern SNE, but we need that IVT lobe to fade faster. As is, we're now biting nails to see how quickly the main surface low takes over and where it slings up.

Trying to figure out things we can pay attention to nowcast... one thing might be 925mb winds over LI pre-dawn Tues... if they have a more easterly component than southeasterly, the bigger scenarios are on the table. If they still have a strong southerly component, not good.

15z Tues actually looks like a big hit once it cools eastern SNE

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow.

For eastern areas, actually not bad consensus emerging between 12z GFS / Euro / NAM (more so 3k). RGEM and CMC look on their own with torching the mid levels and looping system inland.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Much better here. Another jump on the euro.

18z Tues that's all snow for much of eastern SNE... 925mb 0C down to maybe Plymouth to Cape 

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS looks better around here.

I have so little confidence in any forecast at the moment. The goalposts have drastic changes to forecast.

0z runs NAM-Euro-GFS just 12 hours ago were probably the best solutions in days for your area and a good chunk of eastern SNE... here's hoping we trend back to that later today. 3k NAM and GFS hint that it's still on the table. 

Not sure what to make of the 6z-Euro-12z RGEM running this so far inland with mostly rain for us. That's a pretty discontinuous jump, but not totally unrealistic.

16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Pretty, pretty good

Reasons to "curb your enthusiasm" are shrinking...

You could see since last night that momentum was east, and models just struggled to sort out low consolidation until converging on tonight's consensus among EPS, Euro, CMC, UK. GFS the clear outlier.

Verbatim, the B word is warranted.

18z Tues:

925mb winds:

Surface:

For eSNE, BEST Euro solution yet!!!!

Now a consolidated low by Tues 12z

The dual low / disorganized solutions on guidance earlier today were steps in an evolution towards what we're now seeing on CMC / Euro... GFS is the clear outlier

Synoptically and at H5 thru 48h much more like CMC than GFS

Any experience/thoughts on how the potential counterclockwise backing-in would impact snowfall rates? Akin to surge impacted by approach of hurricanes, I'm guessing the west/southwest-ward approach (vs. the more typical northeast-ward approach) might enhance snowfall, but not sure if there's any truth to that.

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good.  The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed.  It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change?  I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats.  At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps.  Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches;  Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective.  I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them.  But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying.  A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest.  Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days.  Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol

 

 

Agree not sure where the need (?expectation) of precise numbers this far out.

Should be perfectly acceptable to put a region-wide alert for potential of heavy snow + winds, stay tuned for detailed TBD. Unnecessarily setting themselves up for criticism.

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They are obviously very gun shy  with the idea of a a Strong CCB thru 8pm Thursday .

one of the more consistent features (if there has been one ) is the N stream heavy precip over Catskills and Berks and to a lesser degree the monads and they are keying in on that .

Also they probably have a good bit of continuity in their forecast and I think they would probably up elevations in NE CT and I would guess that if the CCB works out you can tack on 6-9” to that map? Where that hits 

Id like to see their 10% or maximum map to see their confidence level which I assume is low 

I’d have more confidence northcentral CT up to ORH than depicted… that area pretty consistently hit 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Box map is an absolute mess . I mean beyond lol

Agree this will likely change… unless anticipating further east all happens after 8pm Tuesday, and guidance has trended later with the further east captures 

Actually fairly decent <100 mile consensus for low track, furthest NW tracks into SE SNE, most tracks seem to be around islands / elbow / east of the Cape

Quick glance looks like 12z Euro only one with dual low / 12z UK with nipple, but otherwise NAM/GFS/CMC look consolidated

Momentum seems to be east with a more dominating SRN shortwave that gets boosted but not stretched by infusion of NRN energy... for ESNE, good trend to see given that SRN shortwave was sampled this morning

Discussed this yesterday

SRN stream vorticity getting better sampling this morning and if more robust expected a tic east

Major power issues, 925mb winds:

13 minutes ago, Henry&#x27;s Weather said:

Anyone got the QPF mean?

For QPF mean, note this is 24hr so some far west QPF is cut off:

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS stalls east of the elbow. 

Contrast to 12z when most members went inland:

0z 90hr:

0z 96hr:

Several 966 members in there.

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

Euro definitely could be wrong. But the trend towards a more eastern solution over 12z-18z-0z today makes me think improved sampling of NRN stream (which is now mostly over land) played a role. SRN stream I believe will be fully sampled over land Saturday, so we'll see how the 12z suite plays out tomorrow. IF SRN stream samples more robust, I think there's potential for more southeast tics.

In any case, good to see the whiffs are completely off the table tonight.