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wxsniss

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Posts posted by wxsniss

  1. 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    GFS looks better around here.

    I have so little confidence in any forecast at the moment. The goalposts have drastic changes to forecast.

    0z runs NAM-Euro-GFS just 12 hours ago were probably the best solutions in days for your area and a good chunk of eastern SNE... here's hoping we trend back to that later today. 3k NAM and GFS hint that it's still on the table. 

    Not sure what to make of the 6z-Euro-12z RGEM running this so far inland with mostly rain for us. That's a pretty discontinuous jump, but not totally unrealistic.

  2. 1 hour ago, FXWX said:

    I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good.  The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed.  It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change?  I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats.  At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps.  Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches;  Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective.  I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them.  But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying.  A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest.  Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days.  Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol

     

     

    Agree not sure where the need (?expectation) of precise numbers this far out.

    Should be perfectly acceptable to put a region-wide alert for potential of heavy snow + winds, stay tuned for detailed TBD. Unnecessarily setting themselves up for criticism.

  3. 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

    They are obviously very gun shy  with the idea of a a Strong CCB thru 8pm Thursday .

    one of the more consistent features (if there has been one ) is the N stream heavy precip over Catskills and Berks and to a lesser degree the monads and they are keying in on that .

    Also they probably have a good bit of continuity in their forecast and I think they would probably up elevations in NE CT and I would guess that if the CCB works out you can tack on 6-9” to that map? Where that hits 

    Id like to see their 10% or maximum map to see their confidence level which I assume is low 

    I’d have more confidence northcentral CT up to ORH than depicted… that area pretty consistently hit 

    • Like 1
  4. Actually fairly decent <100 mile consensus for low track, furthest NW tracks into SE SNE, most tracks seem to be around islands / elbow / east of the Cape

    Quick glance looks like 12z Euro only one with dual low / 12z UK with nipple, but otherwise NAM/GFS/CMC look consolidated

    Momentum seems to be east with a more dominating SRN shortwave that gets boosted but not stretched by infusion of NRN energy... for ESNE, good trend to see given that SRN shortwave was sampled this morning

    • Like 1
  5. 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

    The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

    Euro definitely could be wrong. But the trend towards a more eastern solution over 12z-18z-0z today makes me think improved sampling of NRN stream (which is now mostly over land) played a role. SRN stream I believe will be fully sampled over land Saturday, so we'll see how the 12z suite plays out tomorrow. IF SRN stream samples more robust, I think there's potential for more southeast tics.

    In any case, good to see the whiffs are completely off the table tonight.

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