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wxsniss

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    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Wow that is a pretty good run from HREF. I think it was a couple winters ago it did really well. During some of those February storms. 

    Seems like most runs are coming in a bit more uniform tonight. Best is still CT to W MA but we’re getting a little more QPF thrown to us out east. 

    Let's hope it's on to something. It's the most robust at the moment.

    My guess is the higher 4-8" totals east rely on some northern stream infusion after ~15z Tuesday... you can see rates pulse back up for a few hours at the end. Unfortunately we'll be struggling with temps then too.

    We're scrapping for crumbs this season.

    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    Will alluded to this... when we're trying to squeeze out dynamics from this decaying thing, the slightest kink in heights determines 4-8 vs. 2-4 in southeast/eastern MA / RI...

    0z NAM top, GFS bottom...

    Don't think it's possible to realtime assess shortwave (currently over California) to determine which is more accurate

    image.png.0fb1eb76e629c2f9d37a72b8e6e6c6fd.png

     

    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Might be the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen. My aunt used to live right up near Alpine Meadows ski resort so we’d go there sometimes. Feb 1994 (ironically during the brief thaw in the east that winter) when I was on school vacation we went and there was a storm that dropped about 6-7 feet in 3 days but one of the days must have snowed 4 feet and during the peak of it I’m guessing it was like 7-8 inches per hour. Might have been slightly more even….it was actually kind of scary being out in it because you couldn’t see anything. Vis was maybe 25 feet?  This was well before normal people had cellphones so you could actually wander 20 yards in the wrong direction and have no way to get back or call for help. 

    A similar experience...

    Ski trip to Tahoe Feb 2007. On the drive up, we had to pull off and sleep in the car for hours because they did not allow vehicles without snow chains above a certain elevation. Whiteout conditions on the slopes the next day.

    I took this from inside one of the ski lodges the next day:

    04CC481D-500A-424F-BBF5-672097D6877A_4_5005_c.jpeg.29712dbf9eca6a04c114fb7da2b8ab5b.jpeg

    • Like 4

    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    ...

    The first was... the S-SE warm wall is a semi-permanent artifact of the La Nina/-PNA.  We've been in a very well coupled hemisphere since the 3 weeks around Xmas when it broke down and yielded that hybrid Nino look.   Point is, it was not modeled to really go away prior to this thing getting injected through as it was back whence.    My blunder is not supplying enough obvious recognition to the fact that moving a S/W up and over the top of a ridge arc supplies a -NVA term across all DPVA deltas along the way.  We see this as "damping" effect in the cinema of the runs..  

    Yep. Euro last night was a pipeline for potent shortwaves ejecting out of the southwest that subsequently deamplify riding up and over the southeast ridge. Counters cyclogenesis with that trajectory, so we're left more dependent on potency of the incoming shortwave. Same issue for 3/4 system as currently depicted. Infusion of northern stream had been compensating.

    • Thanks 1

    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    40" was viable, albeit veryunlikely. 20" was even more viable if the NAO wasn't misdiagnosed inside of 4 days. I'm sorry...calling weather enthusiasts expressing dissapointment over that missed opportunity "stupid "implies you are probably the one that needs a break.

    Haven't posted since this became disconnected from the northern stream, but agree with the disappointment. The 2/22 12z Euro was a flash in the pan for seasonal redemption, but notwithstanding there was a solid day of guidance hitting double digits for much of SNE that was realistic given the setup.

    Looking at tonight's 0z Euro... it's a really good shortwave, and even digs slightly better and slightly more negative tilt by 6z-12z Tuesday than earlier run. Doesn't reflect at the surface, but wouldn't take much to get this more amplified over the weekend.

    Is there some irony that this same shortwave is bringing blizzard conditions to southern California, but won't in New England? Fitting capstone for this season.

    • Like 2

    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    Just catching up...

    Improvements on 0z GFS are the more potent lead shortwave and we boost the overrunning portion, making up for today's "pancaking" trend Tip was describing. Verbatim 12"+ for eastern SNE.

    Still not getting the same degree of N stream injection we saw yesterday, so it's a smeared CCB rather than the more consolidated and earlier secondary we saw on 2/22 12z Euro. And still room for that degree of injection to fluctuate in the next days of guidance.

     

    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    That’s a cool feature. Didn’t know they had 50th percentile on wxbell. In many senses, that is superior to a mean. 

    I take it 50th percentile = median?

    Definitely informative if you have some outliers like e19... in this case mean ≈ median gives more confidence to toss those outliers. Caveat being the entire ens/op could be off.

    Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Euro often over phases, so that wouldn't suprise me. Bottom line is a significant event is likely.

    Agree, increasing confidence in our biggest event of the season for SNE (a pretty low bar).

    Blockbuster is definitely still on table, but there are many more paths to pedestrian as illustrated tonight.

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