wxsniss

Earthquake?

definite shaking in Fenway area

Wow...

KBTR 211653Z AUTO 02010G19KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M03/M06 A3063 RMK AO2 SLP370 P0010 T10331056 RVRNO

Beautiful night (photos below before deform band came through...)

Looks like a beautiful white against bluebird sky now.... rushing to get kids out to sled, rare opportunity with no school or official work day!

Congrats to South Shore folks who badly needed this. Looks like Boston reports made it to 5-5.5".

We nickel our way back to yore, still a long way but we'll take it!

Happy for the South Shore folks, spreading the season wins

Be careful out there, it's slippery AF, flash frozen layer underneath

I'll make another measurement around 12-1am

2.1" at 10:15pm

Beautiful winter scene outside, heavy snow... baby steps back to yore

Increasingly confident of 5"+ for Boston metro

33F, roads covered completely, should see 1"+/hr rates next 3 hours

34F (down 5F in 30 min)

We're beating the 8pm mark for good snowgrowth and accumulation

Looking upstream, if 850 fronto is any prognostic, Boston metro into northeast MA will crank 9-11pm

35F, moderate snow (Coolidge Corner Brookline)

Roads starting to whiten

Temp dropped 4F in ~20 min

37F, snow

Ground whitening, that was quick!

KOKX / KDIX radar not anemic

Rain -> White rain in Coolidge Corner Brookline

39F

Let's see how quickly we can drop... per HREF ≥1" /hr rates across eastern MA 8-11pm

On 1/17/2025 at 2:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. 

somehow this post was even more true the following night

0z Euro seems an outlier relative to NAM/GFS / AIFS... not even consistent with it's own 12z run

2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Enough support for watches to be extended east at this point

Watches just extended to Suffolk, Norfolk counties for 4-8”

Was leaning 70/30 GFS/Euro for days, the JV models produce a lot of noise

Expecting Watches into Boston by tonight if Euro/GFS hold

Enough support for watches to be extended east at this point

Almost identical to 12z GFS

Box (and neighboring offices) seem to be favoring GFS/Canadian blend:

NAM lost the lead piece of energy that was preventing better tilting of trough in its prior runs... that is one of the main reasons NAM has been further southeast compared to other guidance.

2 players shown below

Euro / NAM weaker solutions than other guidance because (i) lead energy #2 (circled green below) was preventing better tilting of trough on NAM up to 12z run, and (ii) subsequent energy #1 is weaker on Euro compared to other guidance.

Now that 18z NAM lost that lead energy #2, all guidance is very similar except for strength of followup energy #1. Canadians have energy #1 on roids and not sure I believe it compared to rest of guidance... all energy is sampled pretty well.

I'm leaning 70/30 GFS/Euro at this point, which would be a great hit for most of SNE.

12z NAM top / 18z NAM bottom:

0z Euro a tick more NW and more juiced than 12z, towards GFS

Euro and GFS actually not too far off straddling high-end advisory / low-end warning

RGEM / NAM seem to be the outlier extremes, and opposite at that... lends more credence to globals

Great vertical lift and banding signature sweeping through SNE on 0z GFS... has had something like this several cycles

Logan 1.8" at 7:05pm

Measured ~2" Coolidge Corner but lots of compaction

I was happy to see those in South Shore that missed out on the Dec 20 event do well today!

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i get it .. but my point was, when do we get the overrunning?     'cause multi- year result set sorta suggests not often enough to matter

the flow compression means fast.  everything speeds up.  the basal flow rate.  the waves themselves.  everything has a shorter residence time in any given location. 

that also makes it difficult to stasis an overrunning scenario for very long, either.   trying to get you to see that without my saying so - ha

Loving this discussion all.

Tip, the bolded above seems like something you can objectively quantify and then show an association that supports this attribution... do we have data on "basal flow rate" in the past 5 years vs. other years and how that relates to cyclogenesis / snowfall?

(Asking not out of skepticism, I've always found this a compelling theory)

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

And that’s what fascinates me. There is this element of unpredictability that occurs on both a mesoscale and synoptic level that has an enormous impact on people and the environment. It’s the EF5 that destroys a house and spares another. It’s the snow/mix line that gives one part of town 6” of snow and a place a few miles away half that. It’s being 20 miles from the eye of a hurricane and watching it wobble as landfall approaches. It’s watching a window for a blizzard open and close. There is so much to consider. 
 

 

Fortunately, whether because of limitations in input data +/- inadequate computing, my hunch is AI forecasting has a very long way to go before it can nail these highly impactful nuances. Which I'm ok with... this hobby would lose much of its suspense and thrill if we had perfect deterministic models.

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I think Sam Lillo reran that pattern and found it was like a 1:1,000,000 chance occurrence for BOS.

x [probability of a goal-line interception to win a SB] = 1:100,000,000 ?

While we're reminiscing...

That 2015 period always reminds me of that made-up term Dwight uses in The Office... "perfektenschlag" for when absolutely everything just goes right.

I flew back from a certain football game played in Glendale AZ... and land to this at Logan:

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Northern stream went poof on the 0z GFS

The assumption is always better sampling -> better result lol