wxsniss

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Any hits are. Just the idea that it’s possible is enough. 

Lurking since winter, this one drawing me out...

I'm loving the suspense, but I share a bit of nervousness. Funny how being a new homeowner with toddler+baby in the house changes perspective on things... years ago I'd be debating whether I drive to Buzzards Bay or Cape.

My gut atm says ~5% SNE / 40% Maine/Canada / 55% OTS. But I could see guidance make an abrupt jump like the 12z Euro, contingent on slower timing and trough interaction... sort of reflected in the 2 GEFS clusters at 18z.

51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah-I got multiple texts from my Chicago family asking how much snow.   I just curtly replied the amount.  My wife broke her right arm slipping on the ice 2/7.  Pretty disabling and she can’t drive-today is a f/u appointment-cast comes off in 2 weeks and then removable splint for 6 more-even she commented on the lack of snow in the lowlands.  She also told me that in her opinion this snow won’t amount to much.  I hate when she’s right!

Ugh!!! Even more reason to be disgusted by this winter. Hope she recovers quickly.

And regarding the latter... I'm sure most members of this forum have experienced the shame of --- after days of scrutinizing guidance and applying meteorology experience --- being wrong to someone who has zero awareness of the complexity.

I already heard today "why do these weather people get paid". Infuriating!

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I had to drive my wife this morning for an appointment at the Brigham and it really is night and day from my neighborhood to yours.   As soon as we got to Jamaica Pond it barely looked like it snowed.  That band between 11 and midnight and a bit beyond was more intense than anything I’ve seen this season.   In Brookline Village walking around the old neighborhood and snow cover is minimal.   By the time we get back home probably around 11AM it probably will be heading that way but that 200 feet elevation made a huge difference yesterday albeit for a disappointing and worthless event for 128 on east.

I believe it! The delta is ~200 feet elevation and a few more miles inland, almost always helps.

I was confident in widespread 3-6" for areas inside 128 away from the water... significantly tempered from the potential signaled over the weekend, and even that failed.

That persistent appendage low over southern CT --- for resisting cooling of the BL initially that slowed our changeover when we were supposed to be pounding 18z, and for delaying the low consolidation and clean CCB for Tuesday evening, and for maybe fuji'ing the ocean low a little too far north for us --- was a major culprit.

Honestly, even 1 hour of >1"/hr rates of actual accumulating snow, not white rain, would have given this some redemption. Add to that the embarrassment of being wrong to relatives/coworkers who had the confident simple skepticism "it's too warm".

Hope the wife's ok!

Decent bands rotating through Boston metro, but little on the ground to show for it. NWS call would have verified if it were 1-2F colder in BL.

This storm had a list of reasons it would disappoint in eastern SNE, but lack of antecedent cold or a cold source has gotta be at the very top. With the exception of that 2/23 snow, recurring theme all winter.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stuff getting more organized now. Hopefully we can rip for a few hours

 

Just some bad luck for Boston metro at the moment between the bands but that KLWM-KORH-KBDL band is regenerating and rotating in... I think we at least whiten in the next few hours. Sunset will help.

Nothing that hasn't already been said here... but echoes that there remains potential for a few inches in eastern SNE tonight:

Quite an impressive storm which will pinwheel westward toward the
eastern MA coast this evening then loop southward before pulling
away overnight. Dry slot which has impacted areas south of the
Mass Pike will fill in through the afternoon as DGZ becomes
saturated with increasing lift leading to another pulse of
heavier snow across SNE. The focus for the heaviest snow through
the early evening will be across N/NE MA as strong NE low level
jet from the Gulf of Maine rotates toward NE MA. While temps
are slightly above freezing, the heavier snowfall rates are
allowing snow to accumulate. Coupled with the strong winds that
will develop, very hazardous driving conditions expected in NE
MA with some power outages.

The challenge into this evening is snowfall accum across RI and SE
MA. Initially, will not get much accum from melting but as precip
rates increase and temps drop as we approach sunset, expect
accum to commence and expect some hazardous conditions on
untreated roads.

We opted to keep the winter headlines as is. While some areas in
eastern MA will fall short of criteria, the combination of wind, snow
and reduced vsbys will result in enough impacts. Expect 6-8 inches
accum across interior NE MA, decreasing to 3-6 inches along I-95
corridor from BOS to northern RI into NE CT, and 1-3" along and
south of PVD-TAN-PWM corridor. The snow will begin to lessen in
intensity between 8 pm and midnight as dry slot rotates around the
mid level low, but probably not end until late tonight in eastern
MA.

10 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

it initialized the low and rates way too strong, so i'm skeptical

Skepticism completely warranted. Radar is disjointed at the moment. We're counting on the low retrograding to get some better rates before it occludes... light-moderate won't do anything with these temps. We'll see. I'm hoping for at least a whitened ground.

12z Euro says still chance of whitening coast, maybe a sloppy few inches 3pm-11pm, temps never really get below freezing

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Light white rain…..no CCB here yet…

Frustrating morning relative to expectations last night. Heavy rates following changeover stay in northern portion of 495-128.

Fwiw, definitive changeover was generally progged for 18z. HRRR/RAP have bands becoming more meridional and pivoting southeast this afternoon, but not sure about intensity. 

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Seems to be taking forever to complete the transition here.

I'm in Fenway area so can't validate the Corey Hill obs... 

Heavy white rain

Wundermap has had a good handle of line that corresponds well to temps:

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

JD, I would not take that literally but you get the idea.   Pretty good consensus across the entire suite pending Euro which I am probably not waiting for tonight.

Best gameplan imo.

Unanimous 0z suite so far (not counting some RAPs and HRRRs) that (1) loop track remains offshore, (2) 925s cool to support snow by ~11a-1p, and (3) we get buzzsawed by the CCB for 6+ hours. Euro will me-too in an hour (18z sort of already did). This is looking much better for us than it did early Monday, with some room to improve even more!

At what point does BOX upgrade the advisories to WSWs... NAM, GFS, RGEM all now reach warning or more in Boston metro

One of the worst handled storms I can remember... major impactful changes within 24 hours on all guidance

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

That's the 18z run... 0z run was better for eSNE... clear trend to bring that CCB closer

Reggie again also might be snowing by 18z, sooner than depicted, based on 925 temps and up

Great trends so far at 0z placing the loop-de-loop just scraping the Cape

Tic

NAM!!

keeps hope alive in eastern SNE

It's probably too late and overwhelmed by guidance at this point, but if we're looking potential of a positive bust (at least for eastern SNE), we want the IVT feature to weaken faster and shut off warming midlevel temps... I'm looking at 850 winds here... the less westerly, the weaker the feature:

Tues 6z off Euro:

Most relevant portions of 446pm AFD:

...There still remains some uncertainty on exact snow amounts across the lower elevations, including eastern MA and Boston...

Still dealing with lots of critical differences in the latest guidance suite. While gaining confidence in some aspects of the forecast, still some lingering questions with the precise details.

Among the guidance, we discounted the 12Z NAM, which looked to be a far western outlier with its track. This forecast was based more on the idea of the storm staying just offshore of eastern MA. All the guidance had a little pinwheel effect with the surface low pressure at some point tomorrow into tomorrow night. The critical question is where this happens. The main concern for this will be related to temperatures, which are rather marginal already. A more westward jog to this low pressure will mean armer air and less snow towards the coast.

Another complicating factor to the snowfall forecast will be the timing and track of a dry slot in the dendritic growth zone. This looks like it will impact southeast MA and portions of RI. This will limit snowfall simply because the snowflakes themselves will not be as large or well formed.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How is reggie no snow after 15z out to 495 with that track?

Ha that's actually not a terrible run for eastern SNE... 925s are like -2C after 15z, that would be something like 36-37˚C heavy snow

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even Kuchera map is trying to give you like 10" in 6 hours, lol

High stakes for eastern SNE (among CT and other places with this storm). "non-linear" changes as you put it is so appropriate. It really wouldn't take much for a widespread 8-12" for eastern SNE, but we need that IVT lobe to fade faster. As is, we're now biting nails to see how quickly the main surface low takes over and where it slings up.

Trying to figure out things we can pay attention to nowcast... one thing might be 925mb winds over LI pre-dawn Tues... if they have a more easterly component than southeasterly, the bigger scenarios are on the table. If they still have a strong southerly component, not good.

15z Tues actually looks like a big hit once it cools eastern SNE

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow.

For eastern areas, actually not bad consensus emerging between 12z GFS / Euro / NAM (more so 3k). RGEM and CMC look on their own with torching the mid levels and looping system inland.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Much better here. Another jump on the euro.

18z Tues that's all snow for much of eastern SNE... 925mb 0C down to maybe Plymouth to Cape 

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS looks better around here.

I have so little confidence in any forecast at the moment. The goalposts have drastic changes to forecast.

0z runs NAM-Euro-GFS just 12 hours ago were probably the best solutions in days for your area and a good chunk of eastern SNE... here's hoping we trend back to that later today. 3k NAM and GFS hint that it's still on the table. 

Not sure what to make of the 6z-Euro-12z RGEM running this so far inland with mostly rain for us. That's a pretty discontinuous jump, but not totally unrealistic.