wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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Was about to ask… you’re right under that great early band you had forecasted, stretching all the way to North Haven. Mesos look great for your area, 6-10 seems in reach. Moderate here, everything whitened in less than an hour
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6z NAM back to widespread 6-10 eastern SNE! Continues theme of dominant eastern low that itself positions more west No wonder ensembles had so much spread depicting this surface low position.
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First flakes in Brookline MA Nice band setting up Hartford to South shore
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east SLP appears to be taking over on schedule:
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Would not be bad considering people were talking whiff early in the week. Reaches maturity off Nova Scotia. One aspect that could still surprise is duration in eastern SNE depending on how the west->east transfer unfolds.
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0z vs. 18z/12z Euro continues theme of slightly faster west -> east low transfer while being a bit more robust for eastern SNE
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Good to have you back, Will Yeah 4z RAP and HRRR runs stopped the bleeding, and associated with later west --> east SLP handoff. I posted the robust radar returns off NJ above. I think that's a sign of earlier/better west SLP development, but hard to say it's kind of in between the 2 low centers. In any case, it's appearing 1-2 hours earlier than progged.
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Next 3 hours are pivotal resolving this 2-headed coastal 0z 12k/3k NAM actually does not have the west head In next 2-3 hours, HRRR has west head decay, east head dominates and drives the rest of the show
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4z RAP stopped the bleeding This stuff off NJ coast is ~1-2 hours earlier than shown on NAM... any earlier or more robust western low development helps us...
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This activity off NJ not depicted on NAM until 2-3 hours later. Let's see how this progresses.
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Wave spacing... has this been an issue before this season?
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Yep, though I’d weigh mesos increasingly inside 24hrs. RGEM and GFS held. NAM RAP HRRR increasingly favor the eastern low. GFS also did shift in favor of eastern low, but end result was same as 18z. I’d do more upstream real-time analysis of that eastern low but I’m mobile.
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Supports Box forecast map… light / mid / dark green: 6-8 / 8-10 / 10-12
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0z RGEM looks better…
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Yeah just didn't like the trend, and thinking about rest of SNE... for us specifically, that runaway convection is precluding 10+
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Yeah 3k NAM not as bad, prolonged event in east
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Ugh not liking the trend on 0z NAM... eastern low takes over earlier. Still decent hit on eSNE but much less than possible.
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01z (still comparing 18z 3kNAM to mesoanalysis): looks weaker by windfields and pressure
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I know what you're referring to... now this is bothering me too lol... I remember dubbing it "mogwai" because multiple pieces of vorticity spawned all these disparate surface lows upon hitting the coast and as a result guidance was a mess... the night before was stressful in this forum... ultimately consolidated west and we had a blizzard I thought it was March 13 2018 blizzard but that was a fujiwara of 2 distinct lows
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Hey Jerry sorry juggling other stuff at moment... Major reason 23z RAP stunk vs. 20z RAP is that eastern low refuses to decay and steals best dynamics east faster. Possible. I'm skeptical given the vortmax farther west over KY/WV and associated ground results. It's early, but using surface pressure and wind responses, was trying to see if guidance was too aggressive with that easternmost low.
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Gotta step away for a few... will post more realtime when I can 23z (18z 3k NAM left, mesoanalysis right)
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Definitely, awesome nowcast event with good rationale to anticipate upside...
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Agree, that's been the fly in the guidance ointment for days... both from perspective of low placement and conveyor mechanics. See the 21z HRRR... it exemplifies that eastern low refusing to decay and shifting dynamics east faster. I think there's good reason to be skeptical of that with the intense vorticity over KY/WV and results on the ground, and the weaker-than-progged pressure/wind obs of our culprit off NC.
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That 21z HRRR run looks strange... the eastern low, which materializes 4z-5z out of not much, refuses to fade the entire run, and so dynamics at our latitude shunt east faster than earlier runs. Stranger things happen, but I'd think the vorticity over KY/WV (apparently with results on the ground) will be the main driver of SLP development.
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Definitely, I actually assumed it was a radar sparse area over the ocean... I'm looking at the pressure and wind field response of the ocean low, which are clearly lagging at least vs. 18z 3k NAM.
