wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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What a turn of events on this 0z suite... redemption Friday in the making for SNE GFS, v16, CMC, and now Euro... Tuesday's debacle may do the trick as anticipated... drags in better antecedent cold, heights and the southeast ridge are pushed further out
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Would happily trade Tuesday for a solid snow thump Friday, and end the week 1 for 3. 0z Mon Euro depicts a better antecedent airmass Friday for NNE, but SNE still looking borderline. Plenty of time to improve if a more amped Tuesday system advects more cold behind it.
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Not considering whatever happens after this week... I can't remember the last time SNE had such a devolution of high-ceiling, multiple event potential... Just 4 days ago it looked like Feb 94 redux, at least 2-3 events, on track for widespread foot+ of snow SNE by the end of this week on guidance as recently as Euro Feb 12 0z!... and now large parts of SNE are looking at a nuisance kitchen sink / rainstorm. Live and die by the gradient.
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Euro 12zFri - 0zSat - 12zSat... all progressive ticks southeast... that's a good trend for lots of folks in Pike region Subtle but maybe trend is for northern stream energy and confluence a little slower to move out?
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After actually looking at 18z GFS, 0z HREF, 12z EC... 2-5 is too low. I'd go 3-6 for most of SNE. Heaviest axis again north of route 2.
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Brady destroying doubters + beautiful fresh snowfall + multiple snow threats ahead = It's a Feb 94 pattern. Between heavy work and new baby, struggling to make time to track the train of events... a legit KU would do it. NAM has been good recently. I like 2-5" for most of SNE, highest amounts along and just north of route 2.
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WSW not surprisingly expanded to Suffolk and Norfolk
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Massive (2" at times) flakes, no wind, sticking Can make for great slow-mo videos 16z HRRR says best is ahead ~2-4pm Boston metro south in a great place under this band and pivot
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3k NAM 997 to 981 mb = 16 mb in 12 hrs vs. 12k NAM 1003 to 993 mb = 10 mb in 12 hrs Is there a synoptic reason for the explosive deepening on 3k NAM? I can't find upper air for 3k NAM, but wondering if better upper air divergence?
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Yep. Why folks just a few miles away were so upset last week. Missed 1-2 feet by 1-2F. Funny how I've been a little less enthralled about Sunday relative to last week. Less complexity, no ptype issues, fast mover so ceiling is not high. Enter 18z 3k NAM and now we have a little more suspense...
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Updated 4:06am, especially with higher totals northwest of Boston:
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I'm pretty sure it's just a prelim map based on the PNS up to 1am... they'll probably update it Tuesday Probably would spare them flak if they titled it "preliminary" rather than "observed"... it's already the lead on Boston.com
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Awesome, congrats! I won't be surprised to see 15-20 pops further out by Framingham... I wouldn't have been as invested if we weren't so razor close to a huge event, and if I wasn't hoping to impress visiting relatives lol
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Great explanation, thank you. Another way to look at it: the relative humidity of air right off the deck (downstream of whatever the wind direction) is slightly greater than deeper inland, and so more resistant to wet-bulbing. I happened to have family visiting this week... was so hoping they could experience "what is all the hype about" a classic New England snowstorm
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Anyone have ideas why the accumulations were so comparatively poor in Boston metro compared to places like Taunton? Boston surface temps were 33-34F almost entire event, not so different. Just slightly less intensity?
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Incredibly frustrating, even more so with such a promising mid level setup... been a while since we've snowed this hard, now going on 6 hours, but ground truth is so poor Literally 1-2F BL temp was the difference between 15-20 inches and a few inches of slop
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I'd say NAM and Euro... kept the best forcing farther northwest of Philly arcing into NNJ RGEM and GFS blasted Philly area with 20-30" iirc
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(safely) snap a photo if you can?
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Widespread 15-20"+ Looking at radar and what you've already reported, I think you have a good shot! Frustrating how close Boston metro has been with BL temps just a bit high.
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Firehose... 2F colder BL temps and this would have been a widespread 15-20"+ event for eastern SNE Still hoping we catch up some over next 3-4 hours, soundings look decent
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Watching Taunton's band, best rates of event underway... mesos have that ticking north to us by 9-10pm... check out 3z soundings off 0z HRRR:
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Awesome video. That was Boston area Dec 17, 1-2am... may have been the most intense WAA snow I've ever seen.
