dendrite

It won't be radiational cooling.

Not sure how much the pack matters at night in either case with the strong winds. I think 2016 was just simply colder in the low/mid levels down there than this?

You'll be colder than that

I think the core of that cold went south of here. BML -18 and LEB -14 while in MA PSF was -19 and MQE -14.

It's more in reference to the lack of snow than the temps although there were a couple torch winter months in there. Dec 89 was like the coldest December on record.

GFS has 9F at MHT 00z Sun and then warms it to 25F by 12z Sun morning.

The sad thing is that these departures are coming with the relatively "new" normals. It would've been worse with the Jan 81-2010 dataset.

It used to be in CON before the last couple decades. We don’t get many good rad cooling nights anymore.

Heavy, heavy wood stove smoke…especially Sunday morning. I’m not trying to poopoo this…it’s going to be damn cold either way. I just figured if it’s going to be -10s here anyway we may as well go for -20 or colder. We hit -12 to -17 many winters for a peak min.

They’ll be fine. They’re enclosed.

Trending warmer. And even that there is losing its “exoticness”. More mehpic than epic.

Greatest wx event of the 20th century. The local tailor, Elmer Butterfield, can recall exactly which suit button he was replacing the moment that barometer touched 31.06in. Margaret Bettancourt was checking her canned preserves when she noticed the air felt extra heavy that day.

12.9° Still can’t get below 9° here on the season. Looking more like nothing exotic here this weekend. Bring on the warmth next week.

Euro looked colder at 925 than the nam. So the euro is drilling this in a little lower and more SW than the other models.

Mesos are in range now and are more on the non-exotic side with the gfs. The euro suite will probably blow this.

GFS is below zero here by 18z Friday.

I always start second guessing when we get -10s or in a situation like this when we have a threat for temps they haven’t experienced before. But people keep chickens in far NNE, the upper plains, and AK just fine with -30s and -40s as long as they’re dry and sheltered. Trust me, they won’t enjoy this, but they adapt. In that long stretch of extreme cold in late Dec 17 into Jan 18 they got to a point where they were doing stuff in the run like normal even with single digit highs. This is a little more abrupt, but they can easily handle it. IIRC you have all cold hardy breeds. The bigger problem is heating the coop and then losing power and they quickly drop from 50° to below 0°.

Nah…they’re fine. Be careful with vasoline on the combs because it can trap moisture and make them even more prone to frostbite. It should be a mixed/dry airmass for us so I think they’ll handle the cold fine. I’ve had birds with large combs that took a little bit of frostbite the first couple years, but they were fine. It made their combs stay smaller for future cold shots. As long as they’re dry and protected from the wind they’ll be okay.

I’m hoping these dews help to sublimate my pack faster.

-30s dews are fun

The euro is shooting below zero halfway to Bermuda. That isn’t happening.

GEFS mean is -28 for 1P1. Op is -12. 10/90 percentile are -33/-21. So the op is an extreme outlier. Similar theme for a lot of CNE/SNE

EPS mean is only a couple degrees warmer than the op. GEFS much colder than the GFS op. I think I’ll lean colder.

Evan Fisher must be the colder alter ego of Eric.