dendrite

The sad thing is that these departures are coming with the relatively "new" normals. It would've been worse with the Jan 81-2010 dataset.

It used to be in CON before the last couple decades. We don’t get many good rad cooling nights anymore.

Heavy, heavy wood stove smoke…especially Sunday morning. I’m not trying to poopoo this…it’s going to be damn cold either way. I just figured if it’s going to be -10s here anyway we may as well go for -20 or colder. We hit -12 to -17 many winters for a peak min.

They’ll be fine. They’re enclosed.

Trending warmer. And even that there is losing its “exoticness”. More mehpic than epic.

Greatest wx event of the 20th century. The local tailor, Elmer Butterfield, can recall exactly which suit button he was replacing the moment that barometer touched 31.06in. Margaret Bettancourt was checking her canned preserves when she noticed the air felt extra heavy that day.

12.9° Still can’t get below 9° here on the season. Looking more like nothing exotic here this weekend. Bring on the warmth next week.

Euro looked colder at 925 than the nam. So the euro is drilling this in a little lower and more SW than the other models.

Mesos are in range now and are more on the non-exotic side with the gfs. The euro suite will probably blow this.

GFS is below zero here by 18z Friday.

I always start second guessing when we get -10s or in a situation like this when we have a threat for temps they haven’t experienced before. But people keep chickens in far NNE, the upper plains, and AK just fine with -30s and -40s as long as they’re dry and sheltered. Trust me, they won’t enjoy this, but they adapt. In that long stretch of extreme cold in late Dec 17 into Jan 18 they got to a point where they were doing stuff in the run like normal even with single digit highs. This is a little more abrupt, but they can easily handle it. IIRC you have all cold hardy breeds. The bigger problem is heating the coop and then losing power and they quickly drop from 50° to below 0°.

Nah…they’re fine. Be careful with vasoline on the combs because it can trap moisture and make them even more prone to frostbite. It should be a mixed/dry airmass for us so I think they’ll handle the cold fine. I’ve had birds with large combs that took a little bit of frostbite the first couple years, but they were fine. It made their combs stay smaller for future cold shots. As long as they’re dry and protected from the wind they’ll be okay.

I’m hoping these dews help to sublimate my pack faster.

-30s dews are fun

The euro is shooting below zero halfway to Bermuda. That isn’t happening.

GEFS mean is -28 for 1P1. Op is -12. 10/90 percentile are -33/-21. So the op is an extreme outlier. Similar theme for a lot of CNE/SNE

EPS mean is only a couple degrees warmer than the op. GEFS much colder than the GFS op. I think I’ll lean colder.

Evan Fisher must be the colder alter ego of Eric.

Looks like that ORH -44F was Feb 2016.

You can toss that CON -50F. Bad ob. CON,1976-01-20 03:00,KCON 200300Z 05004KT 7SM CLR M26/M29 A3042 RMK SLP315 T12611294 57015 CON,1976-01-20 04:00,KCON 200400Z 00000KT 7SM CLR M24/M27 A3040 RMK SLP308 T12431271 CON,1976-01-20 05:00,KCON 200500Z 04040KT 7SM SCT100 M25/M27 A3037 RMK SLP298 T12551271 CON,1976-01-20 06:00,KCON 200600Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M23/M26 A3032 RMK SLP278 8/030 T12331261 57034 CON,1976-01-20 07:00,KCON 200700Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M22/M24 A3029 RMK SLP268 T12211243 Should be 04kt...not 40kt. lol

I assume he’s using the new formula only.

Maybe we can get some of the rad pits to decouple before sunrise Saturday.

Big recovery on Sunday afternoon this run. 15-20F warmer in NH...more euro like in that respect.

Yeah this would be insane even for HIE/BML standards.