SACRUS

Euro AI AIFS

looks similar to 12z same time - havent looked at 500 to compare

Just this past weekend there were runs showing as much as 6-8 and even 10 inches as recent as 72/60 hours ahead of Sunday/Monday

18z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF The gfs core platform has either - been hacked by members of the weather community - its seeing s something no other suite sees for such an amplified phase so close to the coast (other then yesterdays GGEM, UKMET) that other dont see ala 2010 - greatest failure inside 96 hours of recent memory And the much to be hyped on social media and other outlets 18z GFS total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

UKMET

GGEM:

GFS

GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF:

2/10 12z Summary Total QPF: ICON:

Creeping back GFS weighted im sure Day 4-5

39 / 26 as the much prolonged snow pack continues to shrink with melting now accelerated. Tomorrow's rains may due much of the s/c nj and NE places in. Not much sun the next 4-5 days and the snowpack can be replaced quickly Sun pm and into and through Monday with the storm. 2/23 - beyond looks to ride near / below normal and remain wetter.

Re-weight models: Euro / UKMET → pattern control, blocking, timing GFS / CMC → sensitivity to phasing and coastal capture Ensembles → probability space and risk envelope AI models → early signal detection, persistence recognition This is why a west-leaning GFS + west-leaning GEFS can be taken seriously even if the Euro “scores better” overall. Bottom line Yes, the Euro is statistically the best model overall But that ranking is dominated by 500 mb and synoptic skill Northeast snowstorms depend on lower-level and mesoscale details that are not heavily weighted in those scores As a result, model rankings ≠ snowfall accuracy For East Coast storms, trend consistency and ensemble behavior often matter more than raw skill scores

Interesting summary on model scoring and performance from the all mighty AI: Why the Euro still “wins” — but can mislead The Euro: Excels at 500 mb pattern evolution Handles blocking better than most Is more conservative with amplification That means: It often looks right early It resists dramatic coastal solutions It avoids overreaction But in snowstorm setups: That same conservatism can equal early suppression It may be “right” synoptically but late on sensible weather It often makes small late corrections that have huge snowfall implications This is why many historic Northeast storms looked “meh” on the Euro at Day 4… until Day 2.

The AI (GFS / EUro) Total QPF

1/19 EURO AI AIFS Total QPf

UKMET a miss

2/19 00z Total QPF

GFS AI

2/19 00z Total QPF

2/19 00z GFS

RGEM did look much better tgan the NAM / ICOn and more in line with the 18z GFS

2/18 00z ICON Total QPF

2/19 00z ICON

Compares to the GFS at the same range its much flatter or slower.

Creeping back up