SACRUS

Breaks of sun here on a humid flow up 73/69(DT)

06z Euro similar as well strip of heavy rain just northeast of the city.

Records: 10/5 Highs: EWR: 93 (1941) NYC: 94 (1941) LGA: 93 (1941) Lows: EWR: 34 (1965) NYC: 35 (1881) LGA: 38 (1965) 10/6 Highs: EWR: 91 (1959) NYC: 90 (1941) LGA: 92 (1941) Lows: EWR: 33 (1965) NYC: 36 (1881) LGA: 40 (1965) Historical: 10/5 1638 - The journal of John Winthrop recorded that a mighty tempest struck eastern New England. This second severe hurricane in three years blew down many trees in mile long tracks. (David Ludlum) 1786 - The famous "Pumpkin Flood" occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg PA reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. The heavy rains culminated a wet season. (David Ludlum) 1786: The famous “Pumpkin Flood” occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg, PA, reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. 1917 - The temperature at Sentinel, AZ, soared to 116 degrees to establish an October record for the nation. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Heavy rains, mostly the remnants of Tropical Storm Joanne, fell across much of Arizona. It was believed to be the first time in Arizona weather history that a tropical storm entered the state with its circulation still intact. The center was over Flagstaff early on the 7th. (3rd-7th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - It was another day of scorching heat for the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, and 104 degrees at Monterrey, established all-time records. The high of 101 degrees at San Jose was a record for October. Sacramento tied their record for October for the third time in the month, with a reading of 102 degrees. The high for the nation was 111 degrees at San Luis Obispo and Palm Springs. Twenty cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Knoxville TN with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirteen cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN with a reading of 21 degrees. Goodland KS reported an afternoon high of 39 degrees. Showers over Upper Michigan produced an inch of snow at Marquette. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Raymond deluged southeastern Arizona with heavy rain. Up to four and a half inches of rain was reported north of Wilcox. Three- fourths of the streets in the town of Wilcox were left under eighteen inches of water, and damage exceeded a million dollars. Evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Thunderstorms produced high winds which gusted to 80 mph at White Deer TX, and resulted in one death at Pocasset OK. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Pampa TX and Lefors TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2010: Large hail pounded Phoenix, Arizona, causing nearly $3 billion in damage. 10/6 Historical 1836 - A second early season snowstorm produced eleven inches at Wilkes Barre PA and 26 inches at Auburn NY. All the mountains in the northeastern U.S. were whitened with snow. (David Ludlum) 1952: Sleet fell at several locations, making it the earliest documented winter precipitation in Arkansas. 1984 - The temperature at Honolulu, Hawaii, reached 94 degrees to establish an all-time record at that location. (The Weather Channel) 1985 - A tropical wave, later to become Tropical Storm Isabel, struck Puerto Rico. As much as 24 inches of rain fell in 24 hours, and the severe flooding and numerous landslides resulting from the rain claimed about 180 lives. (Storm Data) 1987 - The western U.S. continued to sizzle. Afternoon highs of 85 degrees at Astoria OR, 101 degrees at Tucson AZ, and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA, equalled October records. It marked the fourth time in the month that Sacramento tied their record for October. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Cool Canadian air prevailed across the central and eastern U.S. Toledo OH reported a record low of 27 degrees. Limestone ME received an inch of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Boise ID reported a record high of 87 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Temperatures soared into the 90s across southern Texas. Afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Houston, and 96 degrees at Austin and Corpus Christi, were records for the date. Beeville was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 101 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 2010: A significant severe weather event struck northern Arizona with at least eight confirmed tornadoes. This event will go down in history as the most tornadoes to hit Arizona in a single day. An EF2 tornado was on the ground for 34 miles, ranking as the longest-tracked tornado in Arizona history. 2016: Around a half dozen tornadoes struck Kansas, including an EF-2 and EF-3 in Saline County. 2016 - Category 4 Hurricane Matthew passed within 100 miles east of Miami.

10/5 PHL: 81 New Bnswck: 80 EWR: 79 TEB: 79 LGA: 78 TTN: 78 ACY: 78 NYC: 77 BLM: 75 ISP: 75 JFK: 74

10/4 TEB: 87 New Bnswck: 86 EWR: 85 LGA: 84 PHL: 83 NYC: 83 ISP: 83 BLM: 81 TTN: 81 ACY: 79 JFK: 78

Rocketing to 80 already before noon

Models have been honing in on a storm in the period in that 10/13 - 10/14 window last few runs. After the cool down low from the sw into perhaps a coastal.

Records: Highs: 10/3 EWR: 85 (2023) NYC: 87 (1919) LGA: 85 (2000) 10/4: EWR: 89 (2013) NYC: 88 (1941) LGA: 86 (2013) Lows: 10/3: EWR: 37 (1945) NYC: 38 (1974) LGA: 40 (1974*) 10/4: EWR: 33 (1945) - 40s cool falls NYC: 37 (1888) LGA: 38 (1945) Historical: 10/3: 1841 - An October gale, the worst of record for Nantucket, MA, caught the Cap Cod fishing fleet at sea. Forty ships were driven ashore on Cape Cod, and 57 men perished from the town of Truro alone. Heavy snow fell inland, with 18 inches near Middletown, CT. (David Ludlum) 1903: An unusual late-season tornado moved northeast from west of Chatfield, Minnesota, passing through and devastating St. Charles, Minnesota. Seven people were killed, and 30 injured as 50 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed. 1912 - The longest dry spell of record in the U.S. commenced as Bagdad, CA, went 767 days without rain. (David Ludlum) 1964 - Hurricane Hilda struck Louisiana spawning many tornadoes, and claimed twenty-two lives. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1979 - The first killer tornado of record in October in Connecticut destroyed sixteen vintage aircraft at the Bradley Air Museum in Windsor Locks. The tornado damaged more than one hundred homes causing 200 million dollars damage. Three persons were killed, and 500 others were injured. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Remnants of Hurricane Paine deluged Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas with 6 to 10 inch overnight rains. Hardy, OK, was drenched with 21.79 inches. Heavy rain between September 26th and October 4th caused 350 million dollars damage in Oklahoma. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Twenty-five cities in the Upper Midwest, including ten in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. Duluth MN, Eau Claire, WI, and Spencer, IA, dipped to 24 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 80s in the Northern and Central High Plains Region. At Chadron, NE, the mercury soared from a morning low of 29 degrees to an afternoon high of 88 degrees. Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in southern California. The high of 108 degrees at Downtown Los Angeles was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Cold Canadian air invaded the north central U.S. bringing an end to the growing season across those states. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix, AZ, reported a record high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley. A dozen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck, ND, and Williston, ND, with readings of 16 degrees above zero. An upper level weather disturbance brought snow to parts of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, with five inches reported at West Yellowstone, MT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2002: Hurricane Lili made landfall between White Lake and Vermilion Bay, Louisiana as a Category 1 storm. 2015: Unprecedented rainfall fell throughout South Carolina from October 1st — 5th, 2015. Storm total amounts greater than 20" were observed in Columbia and Sumter. 2017: The City of Houston had the wettest year on record with 73.51 inches. The previous wettest year was in 1900 when 72.86 inches were measured. 10/4: 1777 - The Battle of Germantown was fought in a morning fog that grew more dense with the smoke of battle, causing great confusion. Americans firing at each other contributed to the loss of the battle. (David Ludlum) 1869 - A great storm struck New England. The storm reportedly was predicted twelve months in advance by a British officer named Saxby. Heavy rains and high floods plagued all of New England, with strong winds and high tides over New Hampshire and Maine. Canton CT was deluged with 12.35 inches of rain. (David Ludlum) 1969 - Denver, CO, received 9.6 inches of snow. October of that year proved to be the coldest and snowiest of record for Denver, with a total snowfall for the month of 31.2 inches. (Weather Channel) 1986 - Excessive flooding was reported along the Mississippi River and all over the Midwest, from Ohio to the Milk River in Montana. In some places it was the worst flooding of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - A storm brought record snows to the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at North Springfield VT. It was the earliest snow of record for some locations. The storm claimed 17 lives in central New York State, injured 332 persons, and in Vermont caused seventeen million dollars damage. The six inch snow at Albany NY was their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Southern California continued to "shake and bake". An earthquake was reported during the morning, the second in a matter of days, and during the afternoon temperatures soared well above 100 degrees. Highs of 100 degrees at San Francisco, and 108 degrees at Los Angeles and Santa Maria, were October records. San Luis Obispo was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 111 degrees. (The National Weather Summary). 1988 - Temperatures dipped below freezing in the north central U.S. Five cities in North Dakota and Nebraska reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 17 degrees above zero. Low pressure brought snow and sleet to parts of Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the north central U.S., with freezing temperatures reported across much of the area from eastern North Dakota to Michigan and northwest Ohio. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN, which was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 2013: While western South Dakota was dealing with a crippling blizzard, the tri-state region of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa saw several tornadoes, including an EF-4. This violent tornado started 2 miles southwest of Climbing Hill, Iowa, flattening corn crops and snapping tree trunks. As the tornado moved northeast, it intensified and struck a farmstead approximately 5 miles west-northwest of Correctionville, Iowa. Sheds and other buildings were severely damaged or destroyed, with the residence being severely damaged. The tornado continued to increase in both size and magnitude as it continued on its trek northeast. The tornado reached its maximum intensity 2.5 miles south of Pierson, Iowa, when this mile-wide tornado struck two farmsteads. Numerous outbuildings and barns were destroyed, with farm equipment being tossed over 400 yards. It was here that the tornado was rated EF-4. The tornado stayed southeast of Pierson, Iowa, and to the west of Washta, Iowa. Before lifting, the tornado produced more tree damage and downed power poles and lines 2 miles west of Washta, Iowa.

60 / 58 48 more hour hors of the dry pleasant and vert warm weather. Today more low and some places mid 80s again. Records safe though. Thursday appears to be last shot at 80. Trough digs in and front comes through later Fri (10/6) and Sat (10/7). Beyond there much cooler / near - below normal with frist forst and freezes inland - mountains first freezes. Overall trough into the east and looks wet through the 10/12 before perhaps a brief warmup southerly low bringing more rain.

10./3 (Highs) EWR: 85 New Bnswck: 83 LGA: 83 TEB: 83 PHL: 82 BLM: 81 TTN: 81 NYC: 80 ACY: 79 ISP: 78 JFK: 75

10/2 PHL: 82 EWR: 81 New Bnswck: 81 ACY: 79 LGA: 79 TEB: 79 TTN: 79 JFK: 78 ISP: 77 BLM: 77 NYC: 77

I am going to do the same for Tuesdays / Wednesdays

Records: Highs: EWR: 96 (2019) - Records safe for a long while NYC: 93 (2019) LGA: 95 (2019) Lows: EWR: 39 (1997) NYC: 39 (1886) LGA: 42 (2003) Historical: 1858: The only hurricane to impact California struck San Diego on this day. Two researchers with NOAA Michael Chenoweth and Christopher Landsea reconstructed the path of the storm using accounts from newspapers of the high winds. They estimated that if a similar storm were to have hit in 2004, it would have caused around $500 million in damage. 1882 - An early season windstorm over Oregon and northern California blew down thousands of trees and caused great crop damage in the Sacramento Valley. (David Ludlum) 1898: A Category 4 hurricane made landfall in Georgia on this day. This is the most recent major (Cat 3 or stronger) hurricane to make landfall in Georgia. 1894: A tornado passed over the Little Rock, Arkansas Weather Bureau office on this day. 1959 - A tornado struck the town of Ivy, VA (located near Charlottesville). Eleven persons were killed, including ten from one family. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - The temperature at Blue Canyon, CA, soared to 88 degrees, an October record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1981 - Severe thunderstorms raked Phoenix, AZ, with heavy rain, high winds, and hail up to an inch and a half in diameter, for the second day in a row. Thunderstorms on the 1st deluged Phoenix with .68 inch of rain in five minutes, equalling their all-time record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A fast moving cold front produced snow flurries from Minnesota to the Appalachian Mountains, and gale force winds behind the front ushered cold air into the Great Lakes Region. Valentine NE reported a record low of 25 degrees. Temperatures recovered rapidly in the Northern High Plains Region, reaching the lower 80s by afternoon. Jackson, WY, warmed from a morning low of 21 degrees to an afternoon high of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in Georgia produced three inches of rain at Canton and Woodstock. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Flooding due to thunderstorm rains in the southeastern U.S. on the last day of September and the first day of October caused the Etowah River to rise seven feet above flood stage at Canton GA. Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in northeastern Georgia, with six inches reported at Athens GA in 24 hours. One man was killed, and another man was injured, when sucked by floodwaters into drainage lines. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

70 / 60 and mostly clear. Enjoy the next 3 1/2 days (for those who prefer sunny / dry fall weather). Last of the 80s likely in sight till next spring. Warm and dry through Friday. Still have NNE flow but overall warm especially inland. Peak 850 MB temps >16C / 17c arrive Thu (10/5) and Fri (10/6) as flow come around to the SW - but trough is pushing front east and clouds and showers by later Friday and Sat (10/7). Clearing by Sun (10/8) . 10/9 - 10/13 much cooler first frost/ freeze in the mountains / NW sections. Beyond there trough into the E/NE spells more rain so overall wet and near/below normal by mid month. We''ll see how that persists or if warmer close becomes posisble.

10/1 EWR: 82 PHL: 81 New Bnswck: 80 TEB: 79 TTN: 78 BLM: 78 JFK: 77 LGA: 77 ACY: 77 ISP: 76 NYC: 76

78 / 52 here. Very nice out after the 9 of 10 days of clouds/rain Smoke offshore /E-LI

Hadnt seen the smoke forecasts Been a while Cant have clouds might as well have smoke

Records: Highs: EWR: 85 (1986) NYC: 88 (1927) LGA: 87 (1950) Lows: EWR: 38 (1947) - The 40s featured very cool Sep/Oct many records lows NYC: 36 (1947) LGA: 39 (1947) Historical: 1752 - The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon Island disappeared. (David Ludlum) 1890: The weather service is first identified as a civilian agency when Congress, at the request of President Benjamin Harrison, passes an act transferring the Signal Service’s meteorological responsibilities to the newly-created U.S. Weather Bureau in the Department of Agriculture. 1893 - The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum) 1893: On this day, the village of Caminadaville, Louisiana, was destroyed by a massive hurricane. Caminadaville was a vibrant fishing community in the late 19th century, located on Cheniere Caminada, adjacent to Grand Isle in coastal Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. It took five days for the news of this devastating hurricane to reach New Orleans. 1938: Grannis and Okay, Arkansas set an all-time high-temperature record for October for Arkansas with 105 degrees. 1977: While an F3 tornado traveled less than one-mile through Montfort Heights or the greater Cincinnati area, it destroyed 12 homes and damaged 15 others. There were 17 injuries. 1987 - A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90 degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie, GA, killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured one person north of Graceville, FL, and two persons at Bartow, GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Thins clouds moving through shortly. Check satellitet loop i posted.

60 / 60 and last of the thin clouds moving ESE with bright sunshine in the next hour for most. Dry / warm stretch and its needed deep trough into the west coast and ridge into theast. Flow NNW today - Tue (10/3) with warm hghs near 80 / low 80s. Warm spots could get mid 80s and cool/wetter spots (Central park) may be stuck in the low - mid70s. Mon-Tue and Fri (10/6) winds less onshore Wed / Thu highest 850 MB temps forecast with >16C but NNE flow. Trough digs into the GL/MW pushes east by Fri (10/6) and next weekend with next rain chances. Cooler 10/8 - 10/13 - frost or first freezes into the higher elevations and chilly 40s to the coast likely. On the other side of mid October - looks near normal.

Sun coming out now. 68 / 60

Sun (10/1) starts feeling like we are in a warm pattern/ridging and out of the coold/rainy "oasis". Still some NNE flow through the week but very warm air all around against averages. 80s for the warm spots (park may stay 5 - 8 degrees below other sites with the growth). Peak warmth Wed - Thu (10/4). Trough into the GL/MW by the end of the week with front approaching Sat (10/6). Cooler period 10/ 8 - 10/11 looks like frost in the mountains/NW section as currently projected. Ridge into the NW pushes east by mud month and warmer one the other end of the middle 10/16 or so. We'll see how dry the 10/1 - 10/15 period can remain - tendency is for hung up fronts and it wants to rain here.

It'll be interesting to see high differences between NYC (park) and EWR/New Brnswck/ LGA etc Mon - Wed this week.

Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (1986) NYC: 89 (1986) LGA: 88 (1986) Lows: EWR: 38 (1942) NYC: 39 (2012) LGA: 43 (1947) Historical: 1896: A hurricane formed on September 22 and lasted until September 30. It formed directly over the Lesser Antilles and hit Cuba, Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. Its maximum sustained winds were at 130 mph. The heaviest rainfall deposited in association with the storm was 19.96 inches at Glennville, Georgia. This hurricane was responsible for an estimated 130 deaths and $1.5 million in damage (1896 dollars). 1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel) 1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data) 1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: The past month was the coldest September ever recorded in interior Alaska. Fairbanks averaged a frigid 31.7° which was 13.2° below normal and the first below freezing September ever. Beginning on the 9th and on every day for the rest of the month, a new record low was set for either low minimums or low maximums, or both. On this date, the city plunged to 3° to set a new all-time record low for September. Snowfall for the month totaled 24.4 inches which was more than three times the previous record for September.