NorthShoreWx
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Everything posted by NorthShoreWx
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We all owe the mods a beer.
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I believe Doria in 70 or 71 hit the NNJ/NYC area as a strong TS. David in 1979 brought enough wind (gusts 60+) to cause a death in a Brooklyn factory when a window blew in on a worker. Doria may have made a landfall near NYC while David was a fast moving transitioning extratropical/TS racing north inland after making landfall as a Hurricane down south.
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Dang, he's still got 3 posts left today.
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The surface features should reflect what's going on above (e.g., H5). There can be reasons they don't reflect it completely, but in general if the H5 forecast is bad, so will the surface forecast be bad. In other words, if you make a wrong turn and don't know it, the next turn is going to be wrong too. So short answer to your question, the H5 is no good (as in it doesn't matter regarding the weather you experiences at the surface) if the surface doesn't reflect it, but you're unlikely to get a good surface chart without a good H5 setup. There's probably stuff that is not technically correct about this explanation, but I hope it helps with understanding in a broad sense.
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The impact of wind on ratios is real. We had 12" of sand on Boxing Day. I'll have to go check my records, but the snow:water ratio was less than 10:1. Of course we were east of the killer deform, but the winds were gusting frequently 50 - 60+ here.
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Writing off the IVT may have been premature.
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January 23, 2016. Whiteout in Smithtown, NY:
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Coating here. or is it a dusting?
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Many may remember this date in 2016, but there was a pretty intense blizzard winding down on this date in 2005. Sorry for the old school Windows .wmv file (probably will prompt download but its only a couple of meg), but for those who don't mind: http://www.northshorewx.com/images/winter2005/Blizzard05/Blizz0501-56k.wmv Snowfall totals: http://www.northshorewx.com/images/winter2005/Blizzard05/20050123contoursS2.gif PS Also sorry about the HV snowhole
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So basically, this January's temperatures used to be normal. Subjectively, it does seem that way.
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We're at 9.7", but nothing on the ground...so there's that.
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Yay Georgian Bay. Nice webcam!
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99.5% wet here. No huge torch overnight though. Ground is still frozen despite 1.12" rain. Occluded lows tend to keep the really warm stuff aloft.
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Do they even know how to handle synoptic snow?
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Mixing now at 33.2°. No surprises, but sometimes its better to be wrong. I had an arbitrary cutoff of 34° for when the changeover would occur, which would probably have given us another half hour of snow. Still flipping to more snow at times, but just a curiosity now.
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It may turn to rain before the CC shows it. All the warming above freezing so far is in the lowest levels. Which means this snow, which has quickly coated the street, is going to be over real soon. Just a hair under 33° now.
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The precip type charts showed rain here, but the 3k NAM forecast soundings definitely looked like a start as snow. Not sure about Yonkers, but I assume similar there albeit a wee bit snowier.
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Light snow commenced at 7:38PM in N. Smithtown. Temp 32°
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Hanging on to 31 here for the moment. If you are lucky enough to be close to freezing when the precip starts on LI, it will be snow. There is no warm nose of consequence for us as the first layer to go above freezing will be right at the surface and that will then proceed higher into the atmosphere (assuming the 3k NAM soundings are correct). Rest assured it will torch, but no sleet here based on the above; just a little snow to rain.
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Wow, haven't seen updated snowfall since early morning, but Greenville. SC is showing 1.42" of precipitation with only snow showing on the hourly reports: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGSP.html This might be a top 3 for them.
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Hard to tell for sure, but that has a decidedly sleety look to it
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Also 25 in Smithtown. Low temperature this am was 10° Saturdays low was 9° (8.8) Am I the only one who is missing OKX Nexrad that has been out since Friday?
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The 3k NAM forecast soundings for the past few runs have been showing the boundary layer this afternoon saturated up to about 900 mb with very dry air above that. I was going to post yesterday about light snow/snizzle/freezing drizzle on LI in advance of the synoptic precip, but I didn't think it would happen in NYC.
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February 1, 2011 was a big disappointment, but it did overall add to the snowpack. We had an inch of snow and a bunch of freezing rain and I think some plain rain but when it was over, there was a lot of ice to scrape off the driveway and the SWE of the snowpack had increased. My records show a high temp of 33° on the 1st and 36° on the 2nd. Snow depth on Feb 1 was 22", but decreased to 21" on Feb 2. As for 2/13/14. If I'd endured that on the south shore it would have been the impetus to move. Great storm up here! There was more going on that day though. Later in the storm we had freezing rain while there was plain rain in Orange County. Some posters there didn't believe it, but it was what it was. Never figured out what magic that was because it was only the north shore in the western half of Suffolk, but the net effect was sweet.
