GSP this morning
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 am EST Wednesday: ***Potential increasing for significant
wintry precip across the mountains over the weekend.*** A very
active pattern will continue for much of the extended period over
the Southeast, as a series of short wave troughs/upper lows is
expected to impact the region. Global model guidance is converging
toward a strong consensus regarding the first of these over the
weekend, as an already-potent...and still intensifying...upper low
will likely be centered over the lower Miss Valley at the start of
the period, and is expected to sweep across the Deep South through
the end of the weekend. Resultant coastal cyclogenesis will likely
bring another round of precip near...and quite possibly into the CWA
from late Saturday through early Sunday. The devil will be in the
details re: p-type...and those details are far from clear at this
point...with the presence of any cold air available to interact
with frontogenetical forcing and deformation zone depending upon
the cyclone track and the cyclone`s intensity/ability to crank up
the cold advection to its west. Based upon the latest guidance, this
looks to be a rain/snow scenario for the time being, and we will
continue to side with climatology and a ballpark consensus of
thermodynamic profiles to keep any snow mention confined to the
mountains...and primarily above 3000` or so at that. However, there
remains plenty of time for this forecast to go sideways in either
direction.