michsnowfreak

Unfortunately it's par for the course in a strong nino December.

And clippers

Today actually feels like winter. Certainly haven't noticed any grass growing lol. But unfortunately strong nino decembers are typically suck city. Just enjoy the holidays and hope the return of cold in January isn't too dry.

I have a book on weather in my area from.the 1830s to 1880s. Much like now they vary year to year, but indeed there were some very warm 1840s winters documented.

When talking trends....clearly the recent trend is Decembers suck and Februarys are the best month of winter. But when you plug in different time periods into xmacis, you can see what trends were when making time periods longer or shorter. For instance, the last 100 year trend at Detroit has shown ZERO warming in Jan-Feb so the entire warming of winter (which isnt much) has been December. POR (1874-2022) Dec warmed 2.1F, gotten 0.19” wetter & 0.7” snowier Jan warmed 0.4F, gotten 0.12” drier & 2.1” snowier Feb warmed 2.9F, gotten 0.36” drier & 2.8” snowier 100 years (1923-2022) Dec warmed 2.6F, gotten 0.25” wetter & 2.5” snowier Jan COOLED 0.5F, gotten 0.13” drier & 5.4” snowier Feb warmed 0.5F, gotten 0.21” wetter, & 7.3” snowier 50 years (1973-2022) Dec warmed 5.9F, gotten 0.40” drier, 6.5” less snowy Jan warmed 4.0F, gotten 0.17” wetter, 1.8” snowier Feb warmed 2.7F, gotten 0.64” wetter, 10.5” snowier! 30 years (1993-2022) Dec warmed 3.4F, gotten 0.70” wetter, 0.2” snowier Jan warmed 0.6F, gotten 0.73” drier, 2.2” less snowy Feb COOLED 1.0F, gotten 0.51” wetter, 12.6” snowier!

So cool, im taking a look!

Hard to tell. Locally, the 1870s were cold, but the 1880s had a few incredibly warm winters and several warm Decembers...so adding 1880s to the mix would warm an avg, not cool it (for Detroit). Picking data-sets can be called cherry picking, but it can also be a great way to see what the trends are. And right now, clearly the recent trend is that Decembers have gotten suckier but Februarys have gotten wintrier. In the past 100 years, there has been ZERO change in the Jan-Feb avg temp in Detroit, so the slight winter warming is entirely December. Again, this is for Detroit. But super easy to plug in ANY city provided they have no missing data. I know you didnt do the Burlington thing on purpose, but its one thing to be mindful of when checking data with a city we arent as familiar with (ive done it myself). POR (1874-2022) Dec warmed 2.1F, gotten 0.19” wetter & 0.7” snowier Jan warmed 0.4F, gotten 0.12” drier & 2.1” snowier Feb warmed 2.9F, gotten 0.36” drier & 2.8” snowier 100 years (1923-2022) Dec warmed 2.6F, gotten 0.25” wetter & 2.5” snowier Jan COOLED 0.5F, gotten 0.13” drier & 5.4” snowier Feb warmed 0.5F, gotten 0.21” wetter, & 7.3” snowier 50 years (1973-2022) Dec warmed 5.9F, gotten 0.40” drier, 6.5” less snowy Jan warmed 4.0F, gotten 0.17” wetter, 1.8” snowier Feb warmed 2.7F, gotten 0.64” wetter, 10.5” snowier! 30 years (1993-2022) Dec warmed 3.4F, gotten 0.70” wetter, 0.2” snowier Jan warmed 0.6F, gotten 0.73” drier, 2.2” less snowy Feb COOLED 1.0F, gotten 0.51” wetter, 12.6” snowier!

Xmacis. It's the same site Blue wave was using, but he included the first several years which had 90% missing data. So those average temperatures below 0 at Burlington were completely false to say the least. If you want to see how much temperatures have warmed or cooled over a certain time frame you set the parameter to have a regression line. https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

That first data set is completely bogus. Most of the data is missing through 1891, you would have to do 1892-1913, which comes up with the mean temperature of 24.5°. Decembers in Burlington have warmed 4.3° since 1892.

Fortunately the cfs accuracy is terrible this far out and changes daily.

I must have missed this. CheeselandSkies, do tell!

Keep in mind this is just official White Christmas is at New York City. And that would be the snow depth at 7am. Like all things in weather, stats have to stay consistent even if they don't make perfect sense every time. If the ground is bare at 7am but a snowstorm starts at noon, it's still not a white Christmas. If its raining with snowcover at 7am and that snow is washed away by 10am, it's still a white Christmas.

The upper midwest is so ridiculously cold I don't think they mind lol. Although they have also had cold anomalies in recent winters. Detroit winters warmed 1.7° in that span (the map has 2-3 but I'm sure its not expected to be perfect) but again that's more than the 100 year warming trend because you're leaving out the mild winters from the 1930s to early 1940s. As someone who lives in the Great Lakes, I can tell you that ice cover varies wildly year to year. In fact, they had near record ice cover on the Great Lakes in both 2013-14 and 2014-15. But another thing that goes into that is month to month temps, mainly wrt thickness of ice. I'm fine with my climate here, I just hate strong nino Decembers lol. Another interesting note. January hasn't warmed in the last 100 years here. December is most of the winter warming. Despite this white Christmas ratio has remained steady. in the last 100 years, in Detroit Decembers warmed 3.6° Januarys warmed 0.1° February's warmed 1.0°

No problem. The 1990s were nyc warmest winter decade on record. You can make assumptions about the 2020s but the decade isnt even half over. So thats a no. For Detroit, the 1990s were also our warmest winters on record (followed by the 1950s, 1930s, THEN the 2010s). They were the least snowcovered decade on record, and 4th least snowiest decade on record (again, 2010s were the snowiest). 1990s also had the least white Christmases for Detroit. So anyone wants to go back to the good old 1990s or 1950s....have fun!

I was just posting decadal stats for a perspective of the good and the bad. I dont know what is/isnt well-documented for you guys as I dont live in nyc & only browse other subforums (lakes is my sub) when its boring (and it is boring now!). My interest was just piqued enough to check stats after the tone of some posts here recently lol. Theres definitely more of a winter warming trend in Nyc than Detroit (Detroit winters have only warmed 2.0F since 1870 and 1.3F the last 100 years, while snowfall has increased some...NYC winters have warmed 5.4F since 1870 and 3.5F the last 100 years), but since nyc has never been a climate of sustained winter anyway, the warmer temps and increased moisture may continue to be a boon to snowlovers during the feast years. For snowlovers, no more brutal a stretch was seen for NYC than this one, 6 consecutive sub-20" winters: 1949-1950: 14.0 1950-1951: 9.3 1951-1952: 19.7 1952-1953: 15.1 1953-1954: 15.8 1954-1955: 11.5 White Christmases since 1912: 1912, 1917, 1919, 1929, 1930, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1983, 1995, 2009. Interesting that... 5 of 33 Christmases from 1912-1944 were white (15%) 8 of 22 Christmases from 1945-1966 were white (36%) 3 of 56 Christmases from 1967-2022 were white (5%) So the 14% probability of a white christmas is actually probably skewed high from an unsually good period 1945-66.

Thanks guys! I usually wear something with the retro logo when I go to Tigers games.

With todays record high being so low, id rather beat it handily than have it tie at 58 or so.

Exactly. In the 1990s February was a snowless torch. Now we get buried most years.

Im a stats person so I was curious to run some stats on nyc in xmacis after reading some posts acting like winter has just abruptly disappeared in nyc from the days of yore, since that certainly hasn’t been the case in Detroit (ie 2010s winters were the snowiest decade on record, 4th most snowcovered decade on record, and winters 4th warmest decade on record for winters). The 2010s were nyc snowiest decade on record. The 1950s were both the least snowiest AND least snow covered. The 1990s were the warmest decade of winters, with the 2010s 2nd. Cant use 2020s data til 2020s have finished lol. Winters have warmed in nyc, but they are not disappearing by any means. Nyc is not a super snowy/wintry place to begin with. Despite grandpa probably telling you there was always snow at Christmas in nyc when he was a boy, the historical probability of a white Christmas Is 14% (16 of 111 years 1912 – 2022) – avg DJF temp – avg snowfall – avg days w/ 1”+ snowcover 1870s- 31.1F - 32.9” 1880s- 30.6F - 32.4” 1890s- 33.4F - 35.7” 1900s- 32.4F - 29.0” 1910s- 32.4F - 30.1” – 29 days 1920s- 32.5F - 29.2” – 29 days 1930s- 34.4F - 24.1” – 21 days 1940s- 32.9F - 32.3” – 32 days 1950s- 35.3F - 21.3” – 15 days 1960s- 33.2F - 31.1” – 28 days 1970s- 33.3F - 22.2” – 25 days 1980s- 34.9F - 19.9” – 19 days 1990s- 36.4F - 23.8” – 20 days 2000s- 35.5F - 29.2” – 20 days 2010s- 36.1F - 36.9” – 27 days

I don't feel we are chasing anything wrt a pattern change as we end Dec and start Jan. A mild Dec was well forecast and is a given in a strong Nino. Seems like everything remains on track for a flushing of the pattern (which usually causes a lag in sensible weather/cold). Next week looks cooler and Christmas week milder than they did, say, a week ago...but everything seems on track for a notable change for the eastern half of the country as we start January. Now what that means for us....stay tuned. As we head deeper into winter, a map full of blue temps is far less important than systems and storm tracks themselves.

Indeed we should. The low record high for Dec 9 (58, 1946) sticks out like a sore thumb when looking at the records list for the first half of December. Record Dec 8 is 66 (1966) and Dec 10 is 64 (1971).

As big a snowlover & Christmas lover as I am, if I HAD to pick which DJF month to suck, I would actually pick December. I mean it's like choosing which bone to break. It's NOT a preference, just if I HAD to pick one. Always so busy with so many Christmas activities in Dec, whereas January & February are the boring quiet months, outside of weather.

The repetitious posts of warm December maps imply like it's some shock, as if it was unexpected, strong nino and all. Nothing you can really do but just let the warm crowd enjoy and soak it all until the expected change in January.

Eps brutal for December. Which has been unfortunately expected, esp with strong nino. Eps weeklies & monthlies much, much better in January. Only 4-5 months til the last snowflakes of the season

What's interesting is that locally, Decembers were great in the 2000s and pissy the last decade, yet despite the contrast, White Christmases have remained steady around 50%. Definitely not a fan of mild Decembers, but with lots of Christmas activities it's a lot busier than January/February so easier to forget about the crappy weather. Time will tell if February is once again the star month of winter.