michsnowfreak

The Euro used to be called king. For several years that has not been the case. I do not at all expect models to ever be perfect. But how can models get worse at technology advances?

Ah ok. Trended away from here lol. But it is nice to see RELATIVE consistency with the models days out. Hopefully a sign!

Ive read accounts. It was not a large snowstorm by any means, but a rapid temp drop, rain turned to snow and temps got deadly cold. The artic blast was very severe in an otherwise tame winter.

Just curious, what trend are you alluding to? That the models dont lose a system?

Wow my memory is like steel when it comes to actual past weather, but like mush when it comes to what models predicted lol. I honestly do not remember cold being forecast last December. Usually there are several different routes we can take for a respectable winter if it won't be great, but strong ninos are the ONE and only scenario i go into winter cringing.

Lol I was joking as he is a known troll. He will disappear until warmth surfaces and then he will be back. I may occasionally comment on snowman or bluewave for their warm bias, but at least they add to the discussion. Huge difference between having a warm (or cold) bias and just being a troll.

I can't stand hype either way, but it's no different than some of the Twitter stuff you share of the opposite extreme. Though honestly anyone who uses Twitter as their weather source are just like the people who use their phones AI forecast graphics as their main weather source. They'll forget once it changes the next day.

Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago.

The last 10 years have basically averaged around avg for snowfall here. Not being in the direct snowbelt, we still get a boost from increased overall precipitation. So basically, the last 10 years have seen solidly above avg temps but still near avg snowfall. The previous 10 years saw temps slightly below avg but snowfall well above avg. At Detroit officially the most recent 30-yr avg (1991-20) is 45.0”, but the longterm period-of-record avg is 41.0”. The last 10 years at Detroit have averaged 40.9” (2014-15 thru 2023-24). The 10 years before that at DTW averaged 54.9” (2004-05 thru 2013-14). Fun fact- 2024-25 will be my 30th winter measuring snowfall in Wyandotte, MI (first at my parents house then at my own, stayed in the same city). So once this winter is over I will have a long enough period of record for a 30-yr avg lol. Last winter was the only well-below avg snow season of this post-2015 era everyone likes talking about lol. This is why I say over and over....Im not as worried about temps as I am precip and patterns in the Great Lakes region. I definitely prefer cold, but it is not the end all. I should also add, not just an increase in LES for snowbelts like you, but warmer winters also tend to give us some real dynamic winter storms (we have had quite a few low ratio snows that, had it been 10-1 and a few degrees colder, would really beef up the snow totals).

Of course it goes both ways, though on this board specifically I don't see the cold biased forecasters. There's a difference between liking/wanting cold and snowy vs forecasting it.

Very well said, and my thoughts exactly!

Ive noticed with some on here, warm solutions on longterm guidance (even 384 hr op maps) are gospel and cold solutions should be discounted for their unreliability. Looking at todays 12z ensembles, nothing screams "RECORD warm start to December" like an ensemble mean of solidly colder than avg 850s to start December.

I disagree on January. I'm really liking January here, and while it will probably be somewhat milder than normal on the east coast it's probably your best winter month this season. I think @40/70 Benchmarkalso thinks Jan will be be your best month. A few months ago I thought Dec might be great and Jan would suck (going by some previous nina years) but I've completely flipped recently. Dec looks to have it's chances but should be the least favorable of the 3 winter months. Cfs and some other models have been steadfast on western Canada just loaded with cold by January.

You seem to be quite knowledgeable, but honestly, it seems crazy to me to pull the plug on an entire winter on the east coast if you don't see sustained cold in November. It just doesn't make sense. You talk about 16-17 frequently...well there was plenty of cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas. How did the rest of that winter work out? And also I do not see any signs of record warmth starting December.

The CFS (and several other models) has been steadfast in having well below average temps in already frigid Canada in the coldest month of the year (Jan), and the same for Feb. Never any guarantees, but I like that look and the potential it holds.

Thats why I have really been liking Jan and Feb, the models really have that cold in western/southern Canada. For example, January, already the coldest month of the year, sees average temps in Chicago & Detroit with colder than avg temps in the northwoods and much colder than avg temps in already frigid Canada in the coldest month of the year? No guarantees, but Ill take my chances with that scenario as forecast.

2017-18 was a fantastic winter, we set a few cold records, had a snowy December including a perfect Christmas Eve snowstorm, had the longest stretch on record with temps of 19F or colder, spent much of the late Feb torch with snowpack as it was deep early in the month and had to melt, and had a crazy mid-April ice storm. NO complaints at all about 2017-18, and it probably would have seemed even more harsh had the record 2007-15 stretch not been so fresh in the mind. Its been the only winter that has really stood out in the post-2015 era, but outside of last winter its really not been too bad for snow here either. Its been far more the fact that 5 of the 9 winters were very mild. Ironically, the other low-snow year was 2018-19, a winter with near avg temps and 3 ice storms. % of avg snowfall in the post-2015 era: 2015-16: 78% 2016-17: 83% 2017-18: 134% 2018-19: 69% 2019-20: 96% 2020-21: 99% 2021-22: 104% 2022-23: 82% 2023-24: 52% 9-winter avg: 88% It should also be noted this is using the 1991-2020 avg snowfall, the highest on record. If we use the long-term avg which is a few inches less, all those % would be higher.

Isnt that the truth? In winter I check every model, ensemble, weeklies, cfs, etc on a daily basis. When an actual snow event is on the doorstep, im analyzing p-type, looking at every model & short term models total qpf, if theres any ptype issues, last minute shifts north or south, etc. In summer I only check when severe wx is forecast, or if an unusual hot or cool spell is on the way.

LMAO at those maps. Its been proven every single year that the forecast seasonal snowfall maps (much like the daily snowfall forecasts in storm season) are terrible and unreliable. But I especially laugh at the Washington Posts Microsoft Paint map (with no data source) of the difference in snowfall. Not sure if they are bad at math, bad at geography, or just promoting an extremist agenda. Southern Michigan is in the -10 to -20% difference. Every single first order station has seen a RISE between 6-11%. (not listed but Ann Arbor has a rise of +25%). DETROIT 1964-1993: 42.0” 1994-2023: 44.6” Difference: +6% FLINT 1964-1993: 49.5” 1994-2023: 52.4” Difference: +6% SAGINAW 1964-1993: 44.3” 1994-2023: 49.9” Difference: +11% GRAND RAPIDS 1964-1993: 71.6” 1994-2023: 77.2” Difference: +7%

Yeah its definitely been a mild stretch of winters, especially for the east coast. But forecasting a +10 DJF anomaly would be a huge stretch for anywhere. My favorite post 2015 winter is 2017-18. Very snowy and wall to wall cold Nov-Apr except the last 10 days of Feb.

That's crazy. But yeah the lakeshore can do funky things. For instance, this Fall Detroits color peaked a good week or more before Traverse City well to the north.

Euro weeklies continue to cool.

Euro weeklies continue to cool.

Oh yes car thermometers are not at all accurate. Usually too warm. But they can show the changing temps up and down well.

Before i worked from home I used to witness temps colder than the official #s every morning as I drove past DTW. But yes I know what you're saying. It's really crazy when driving through northern MI, but we have plenty of that in southern MI too. A friend of mine lives in rural northern Monroe county and even though it's well south of Detroit the temps absolutely tank at night, far colder than here/DTW on clear nights.