michsnowfreak

Fall and spring are the battle seasons. Lots of extremes and up and downs. Winter and summer duke it out. The difference, of course, is those warm autumn days will soon lose to winter, just as those spring snowfalls quickly lose to summer.

Nice! Yes i wait til Thanksgiving week to turn them on usually.

I know you're relatively new to the midwest. No one is disputing a mild November. But you have to remember a few things. Averages tank throughout November. And we have had quite a few cold/snowy novembers the last decade that have led to mild winters. And our harshest winter of the last decade (2017-18) started with a mild November. (Historically there is no november-winter correlation though).

Breaking out of the super dry pattern in November is perfect timing ahead of winter. It's very common to see mild, dry Autumn's lead to wet winters in la ninas (though this autumn was extra dry). Although in my perfect world winter would start November 1st, I'm not worried at all about a mild November. Weve had plenty of cold, snowy novembers in recent years. Plus ill be busy getting all the Christmas decor ready lol.

No doubt canada will be colder. Lake effect will probably crank early in the season too. You have to remember, it's very easy to get LES with cold fronts in early winter when the lakes are "warm". Side note...November (at least here) is the month of the year with the largest difference in average temperature from the 1st day of the month to the last.

DTW set a record high of 79 today. Strong winds blowing showers of leaves everywhere.

I'm sure you were joking, but with an expected wet pattern in the OV/Lakes and Canada much colder than last winter...good luck with that lol.

My Autumn Blaze Maple loves to show off this time of year. Savoring these last colorful days!

I think you are good too. If a gradient pattern develops, Massachusetts may do very well. Sometimes you have to sniff the rain to get the best snows.

Great point! The cold in Canada, which is pretty much agreed upon on seasonal models, is very important as we go through winter. I say this every year for us (and anyone else north of 40N), don't let the reds and orange departures on longrange maps get too in your head without thinking about the overall pattern. It's a cold climate, precip SHOULD be plentiful, so no reason to think it won't be a serviceable winter. Is this 2007-15? Absolutely not. But it's no 2023-24 either.

Ah that explains it. We do agree then. It comes from certain individuals on a yearly basis. As for overall tone, I really wouldn't say the overall tone is full dread. Maybe a bit jaded, but the true dreaded tone is from a few of the usual individuals. As has been said many times by me and others, the upper midwest, Great Lakes and northern New England will probably have a good snow season. South of NYC doesn't look so good, but even there you can absolutely get a few good storms. And they never should expect sustained winter anyway. So really, no reason for doom in October.

I've been on weather forums 22 years and my recollection is very different. Is it ever a lost cause in October? No. Are there some who act like/say/imply it's a lost cause in October? Every single year. Without fail. Every single year.

Most areas in the 20s today...DTW low was 33°. With all the concrete at an airport it's to be expected, but it really tanks JUST outside the airport property. Low was 24° in Ann Arbor. Went on a Fall hike yesterday. One of those days you want to bottle up...the perfect Autumn day. Fall is so amazing and so short. Already passing peak here. Some areas of great color left but also lots of areas of totally bare. Saw a guy painting natures masterpiece.

Nice to know others share my thoughts!

A mild November is one thing, but I sure don't see historic warmth.

Im just telling it like it is. Whether its 2011-12 or 2013-14, the same November attitudes prevail. I personally think this will be a typical up and down nina winter, in the end averaging slightly warmer than normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Again, thats all in the end. Wild swings, fun times and frustrating ones.

It goes without saying that the 2nd half of December is better than the 1st half, climo-wise, just about anywhere. But I will say that every year is different. Last year we had snowy trick or treating and a bare Christmas lol. We have had years where the first half of December is a winter wonderland then no snow for Christmas. And, more recently, we have had years where December sucks overall but snowy weather arrives just in time for Christmas (2020, 2022).

That is a good point.

With November a week away, I say this lightheartedly but in the 22 years ive been on weather forums, it has never changed. Since November is kind of the doorstep to winter, its arguably the most annoying weather weenie month of the year. Why? November is cold/snowy? Bad sign for winter. November is mild/warm/sunny? Bad sign for winter. November is dry? Bad sign heading into winter. November is wet? Using up these storms tracks now, bad sign for winter. Etc etc.

Actually I wouldnt call December a dumpster fire. Your area looks 0.5-1C warmer than avg on the CFS for December.

This is is a great idea! We all are guilty of getting wrapped up in certain past winters (both good and bad) when in reality even if everything aligned the same, the sensible weather result would vary.

Another fantastic Autumn day. Colors still peak but leaves dropping fast

It does. I just meant November really has nothing to do with the harshness (or lack thereof) of winter. Many of our recent mild winters began with cold/snowy Novembers.

November is a crapshoot any given year though.

I'm the same way! They did that last year here with sewer lines, cutting down some big trees then replacing them with new small trees when the project was done. I HATE when they cut down old trees! Fortunately still lots of tree lined streets here. But the ones with less trees are simply missing something imo. It's not the same.