michsnowfreak

In my part of the Great Lakes Id consider the last 10 winters, if I had to sum it up in a nutshell without getting into the details of each winter, I would say it was above average temps with near average snowfall. Of course....the sum of the 10 years prior to that would be near to slightly below average temperatures and well above average snowfall. Now, we DID have historic winters in the 2007-15 timeframe, and while we really came down post-2015, theres been nothing close to snow futility. Detroits snow climo is pretty consistent overall, and the most glaring thing in the snow-record is the low snowfall which spanned the entire middle third of the 20th century. It was a timeframe characterized by mild winters with low snow and cold, dry winters with low snow. Really bad times for the snow lover. It sticks out like a sore thumb (and ive done ample research to verify the validity of the data, its legit). It went on for 3-4 DECADES. Nowadays panic buttons for various issues are pressed after less than 3-4 YEARS. Where do I sit midway thru the 2020s? Well, the last complete decade (2010s) was our snowiest on record, and the decade before that (2000s) was above avg too. Halfway thru the 2020s we are running a bit below the longterm avg, but nothing close to earth shattering. Looks more normal up and down to me. If I had to make a guess (and its just a GUESS) at what the future decades hold for our region, Id say snowfall averages will largely remain steady in the 38-45" range. The increase in winter temp (which is centered heavily around December) has increased precip, which helps increase snow. Lake effect influence also has increased here as well (tho obviously nothing close to the belts). I saw less snow this winter, a winter which finished a degree colder than normal, than I have recently seen in winters that finished 4-5F warmer than normal. Just goes to show that each winter truly is unique, but in a region surrounded by Great Lakes and multiple ways to get snow, I would not be worried in the least about snowfall. Detroit avg decadal snow 1870s- 46.0” (only 1874-79) 1880s- 44.4” 1890s- 42.7” 1900s- 46.3” 1910s- 39.7” 1920s- 46.1” 1930s- 32.9” 1940s- 27.8” 1950s- 37.8” 1960s- 31.8” 1970s- 45.6” 1980s- 45.2” 1990s- 37.9” 2000s- 45.3” 2010s- 49.9” 2020s- 37.9” (only 2020-24) 1874-2024- 41.0"

Ive learned over the years that there are very few TRUE blizzards. Quite a few strong storms have blizzard or near blizzard conditions, but very few true blizzards. I see time and time again these NWS offices issue blizzard warnings and when you check the conditions, it does not end up being a blizzard. Many times its not even really close. Locally, the storms of 1999, 2005, and 2015 and Im sure multiple others had the criteria met for snow reducing visibility to 1/4 or less for 3+ consecutive hours, but sustained winds were not 35mph+.

Looks like Lansing had 1.4". I had 7.0". Easily best storm of 1995-96. The cutoff March 20, 1996 was not nearly as extreme as March 25/26, 2002 when 8-12" fell downriver to Monroe, 4-5" DTW, 0 Ann Arbor/Pontiac.,

MI has had many advisories this year lol, and some warnings too. The hole of no advisories is due to the L pressure tracking through the mitten, wrapping the advisory+ level wind around us.

bullseye right over MSP/SE MN.

Much of our sub is on the list. We have a very low risk of catastrophic earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes. 4 seasons and minimal catastrophe risk? Ill take it! Michigan - #1 Minnesota - #2 Illinois - #3 Vermont - #4 Ohio - #5 Colorado - #6 Maryland - #7 Maine - #8 New Hampshire - #9 Montana - #10

Last thing Ill say about NYC snowfall (not saying anything about temps). I dont live there, nor will I ever, so I have NO stake whatsoever in the climate there. I just feel theres way too much twisting of data in looking for what the future holds for their snowfall. What I DO know is that no one will have the answer for several more decades of actual data that hasnt yet happened. NYC literally just had a stretch of 8 of 13 years seeing 40"+ snowfall. Funny how winters of yore arent so yore when you look up the snow data. The last 9 winters to feature 40"+ snowfall go back 23 years. Prior to that, it took 79 years. 40”+ NYC winters 1923-24 thru 1956-57: 2 of 34 1957-58 thru 1966-67: 4 of 10 1967-68 thru 2001-02: 3 of 35 2002-03 thru 2014-15: 8 of 13 2015-16 thru 2024-25: 1 of 10 1923-24 thru 2001-02: 9 of 79 years 2002-03 thru 2024-25: 9 of 23 years

Shows he has not been active since September. While Im sure he has had plenty of snow, his region of the UP is actually in a pocket of below avg snowfall, with the much heavier totals being to their west (Keewenaw) and east (Sault Ste Marie).

Once we break sustained winter, I always hope the March/April roller coaster is a fun one. Lets get a good dynamic snowstorm and some t-storms too.

This year was a very unique winter. Storm tracks cutting to the Great Lakes is a bit misleading, because there werent really any big winter storms. Just lots of small and a few moderate ones. I know NYC is a completely different climate than the Great Lakes (or New England), but I just dont see how you can make any assertion of what the future holds for winter snowfall in your area. Ive always thought that its ridiculous to be SO closely removed from our widespread period of record snow (roughly 2007-18, depending on area), that some assert that while we JUST got over the snowiest period in the climate record, a handful of low-snow winters are the "new norm" and itll only get worse. Absolutely no science behind that. Snowfall and temps DO NOT always go hand in hand. There is less and less of a correlation between the two the further north you go obviously. But theres also a bit too much obsession over temp departures IMO. If you go back to last Fall, SO many were certain that a warm, if not torch, winter was on the way, that the fact that it ended up as a colder than normal winter is throwing some onto the defensive, once again bringing up colder periods in the climate record. That is all a moot point. It was PLENTY cold for more snow than fell virtually everywhere, sometimes storm tracks just dont cooperate. In fact, from a longterm perspective, I kinda like how we saw the cold this winter, despite the underwhelming snowfall, because it throws another wrench in all these assumptions for the future of snowfall in certain areas. And Im talking more for your area, as I already well KNEW that my area's snowfall is far less dependent on whether we have a cold or mild winter. I can take the coldest average period of NYC's climate record and its still a top 10 warm winter for Detroit, yet NYC has had about 30 winters in their climate record with 40"+ snow (Detroits avg is 45").

Same here. First below avg temp, below avg snow season (barring a huge late season storm) since 2003-04. Certainly a combo not seen in a long time. Everyone likes what they like, but IMO the whole "only snow matters, not temps" mantra I see seems contradictory. Almost like an excuse for an unexpectedly cold, dry winter. If temps don't count, then all this discussion about mild winters since 2015-16 is really worthless. You and I can easily see good snowfall in mild winters, just doesn't have the same "feel" as a more sustained winter. While I'm a huge weather geek, I also love all things winter. There was plenty of winter to enjoy this season, but there was little weather geek excitement.

15° at DTW with some flurries overnight. Despite the recent mushy surface from snowmelt, the ground remains frozen.

Thanks for clarifying! I'm about 7 miles due east of DTW.

Fun thread to follow since last summer/fall, but If I was a forecaster (locally, let alone nationally) I would've failed miserably this winter. Im at 27.5" of snow on the season to date, the largest snowstorm was a 2-day event of 4.8", and without hesitation I can say that the cold and days with snowcover exceeded my expectations while the snowfall and storminess fell short. January and February were pretty enjoyable for the winter lover in me (lots of scenic winter days, frequent snow, hikes/walks, sledding with nephews, etc) but there was little in the way of big excitement. It behaved unlike any nina in memory. I'll definitely be following the thread for next winter, but will have little confidence in what will happen, regardless of what the consensus is.

I always forget, which of the DVN sites are you closest to? Or are you kind of in no man's land for first order stations?

I have a small balsam that came from deep in the Northwoods 3 years ago. Always feed it plenty of snow so it grows in its natural habitat . It had quite a drink this week.

A cold, white February finishes mild & bare. Definitely a very unique Jan-Feb here with the ground having at least some white nearly all the time, but only 1 good week (mid Feb) of deep snow. Only 3 of the 55 days from Jan 3 - Feb 26 had 0 snow depth at DTW. The DTX NWS office, located in the higher/colder elevations of northern Oakland county, has had continuous 1"+ snowdepth the entire time (and still reports 2" today). Daily Snow Depth Data for Detroit, MI 2025-01-03 T 2025-01-04 T 2025-01-05 T 2025-01-06 T 2025-01-07 T 2025-01-08 T 2025-01-09 T 2025-01-10 T 2025-01-11 4 2025-01-12 3 2025-01-13 3 2025-01-14 3 2025-01-15 4 2025-01-16 4 2025-01-17 4 2025-01-18 2 2025-01-19 2 2025-01-20 2 2025-01-21 2 2025-01-22 2 2025-01-23 2 2025-01-24 3 2025-01-25 3 2025-01-26 2 2025-01-27 2 2025-01-28 1 2025-01-29 1 2025-01-30 T 2025-01-31 0 2025-02-01 T 2025-02-02 T 2025-02-03 1 2025-02-04 0 2025-02-05 0 2025-02-06 T 2025-02-07 T 2025-02-08 T 2025-02-09 1 2025-02-10 1 2025-02-11 1 2025-02-12 T 2025-02-13 4 2025-02-14 4 2025-02-15 3 2025-02-16 6 2025-02-17 7 2025-02-18 7 2025-02-19 6 2025-02-20 6 2025-02-21 6 2025-02-22 5 2025-02-23 5 2025-02-24 4 2025-02-25 2 2025-02-26 T

To each their own. I'll root on snow and cold thru April every year. As was said earlier, we can root for whatever we want, but mother nature has the final say.

It references March 2012, an extraordinary warm spell that had widespread 70s and some 80s for several weeks which caused very early greenup and blooming which destroyed crops when April freezes hit. A less extreme version of this occurred in 1945 with the same result. Mild is one thing, but record warmth is bad for fruit growers because spring freezes are pretty much a guarantee.

Ground is all bare now other than some snow piles and plow piles.

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

I get what goes into the drought monitor, but its still funny to see SE MI in "abnormally dry" when the recent snowmelt/rain on frozen ground has made it a mushy MESS outside.

Of course there were ups and downs, there are almost every winter. But it was still a colder than avg winter. Had plenty of winter fun here in January/February despite the lack of big storms, so my issue is not getting a mid-March torch. My issue was how saying 10 days out is too far to worry about ptype to which your crystal ball told you ill be disappointed. Look Cromartie, youve been pretty well behaved as "Maxim", so kudos on that, but Im still going to call out BS when I see it.

I know youre disappointed it wasnt the warm winter you continuously called for, but i dont see how saying that a storm signal 10-11 days out is too early to call p-type is setting myself up for disappointment

Wayyy too far out to even guess p-type. Ensembles definitely like a swath of snow ~March 9th