michsnowfreak

You may start feb in single digits for snow. But dont count on your lowest temp already having been set. Probably another late spring.

Honestly, this is the most powerball-eque Detroit winter I've ever seen. Barring some last minute failure, this will be our 2nd warning criteria snowstorm, each has trended better with time. In between, there has been very little what you would call nuisance snowfalls, and the snows that have fallen have not caused many travel disruption and have usually been in the form of brief but heavy squalls. Lots of flurries but those don't really have any effect other than being mood flakes. Its been a frustrating winter for me but its one you would write up and request every year.

Its as if its become a staple to just say the models back down at the last minute whether they do or dont. Our 9" snowstorm on Nov 11 was forecast at 3-5 the day before. If this one does well, it too will have gotten better the closer we got, not worse.

If we do not see 4" or more of accumulation in the Detroit area, I will be surprisedm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200- /O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/ Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be decreased in areas of heavy snow. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin Friday night and become heaviest during the 1 AM to 7 AM timeframe on Saturday. Temperates will then rise to near freezing or perhaps a degree or two above. This will coincide with a changeover to sleet before warmer air transitions precipitation to rain or drizzle by mid afternoon, or earlier for Lenawee and Monroe counties.

Agree. Also, if anything our winters are getting longer because we seem to be getting earlier and later snowfalls now, regardless of what happens in between. A longer Winter is not necessarily a better Winter, and vice versa, as obviously the meat of Winter is what is most important. 2015-16 and 2016-17 were back-to-back warm winters (though we surprisingly managed to do OK with snowfall), which followed back-to-back brutally cold winters in 2013-14 and 14-15. 2013-14 was the most severe Winter on record here.

Guidance looks great for Southeast Michigan. Now we wait.

January 1950 was one of the most roller coaster month you will ever see in the lakes, though it certainly leaned on the warm side.

Not very warm lol (other than op euro), but much milder than it was looking. The mildness appears to be brief however with these models you can't guess on anything.

Bastardi is a joke. I will say tho that the suffering of mid dec to mid jan appears over, at least here.

I receive 1" of snow which then turned to rain and melted the snow overnight with that December 1st 2007 storm. An awesome Winter for sure, but a very forgettable storm here, had to look up what happened.

God i hope not...65-66 was terrible here. Although jokes aside, the long range after next weekend's brief mild up is back to cold on all models, which naturally is to be taken with a grain of salt

Lol maybe...

Looking like a solid 4-7" for metro Detroit.

Dtx going surprisingly not conservative like they usually do, calling for 4-7"

It's kind of an odd graphic, it's just talking about the chance of 6" or more of snow.

Actually looks ok here in Southern Michigan. Looks like quite a thump of heavy snow before turning to rain, but a lot of the precip falls as snow. If anything id say trends are better today.

I agree!!! Thanks!

Fwiw the models are supposed to account for virga. So for instance, if one of those maps would verify, radar would likely be ahead of the actual forecast qpf shield due to the virga, which naturally will cause weenie freak outs when an active radar and dry clouds are being seen.

I had a peak snowdepth of 9" in November, and the peak in December and January, albeit on several occasions, has been 1"

Is evaporative cooling underestimated too?

Luckily it would seem theres only so far north this thing can go. Ill be thrilled if we can lock in a snowcover.

One of my favorite snowstorms. 16.7" at DTW.

Expected to wake up to freezing drizzle this morning, instead woke up to 0.3" of snow. Adding a few pennies to the pot.

This is so perfectly said. I always get a kick out of people acting like the Southern Great Lakes or midwest is a bad Winter climate when it really is Wintrier than most places. I think the fact that we do get snow so relatively frequently is what makes a true snowlover thirst for more, and knowing the massive amounts of snow that fall just to our North is tempting. However as someone who goes up North every year (going to Munising Feb 16 - 19), I can definitely tell you that every time I go up there I have an awesome time but I could NEVER live in that isolation. Plus much of the rural north is several decades behind the times.