michsnowfreak

Could be the case. The smaller lakes are thick with ice.

Sounds like an overperformer?

Very nice! I'm jealous.

These are amazing. Where does the 1830s-1860s data come from?

Ended up being a very dense sugary snow here with a bit of snow pellets before the snow and freezing drizzle after the snow. Picked up 1.2" here bringing season total to date to 16.8". DTW had 1.1", season to date 16.2". Season of pennies and nickels and dimes.

The excitement of expecting 5-8". The disgust at only possibly getting 1" The relief of getting 3". All in the same storm. Gotta love models.

Ensembles are absolutely lit up for the next few weeks. This is where the ceiling is raised. January with it's frequent flakes but dry cold got a pass because it was at least wintry and white and was clearly not a stormy pattern. But the coming weeks look like lots of action.

Snow should be moving in here shortly!

We are on the same page in that we both love winter. We are not on the same page in expecting a climatology that has never existed. 2013-14 wasn't just a good winter. It was an extraordinary, historic, epic winter here. Funny thing about 2014-15 is that snowfall overall wasn't impressive but the cold and snowdepth was. In fact. The snow depth was so impressive that it placed winter in #2 of your SDD category (2013-14 blew away #1 and it wasn't even close). Since then we have had some good winters (2017-18, 2020-21) and some great individual months and storms, though the historic streak of 2007-15 certainly has ended. But all winters since 2015 have certainly not been horrible here. Last but not least. It's been a very unlucky winter in Chicago. There's been plentiful cold but it's been so dry. I dont expect you to like it but theres nothing you can do about the weather. While it's been lackluster in Detroit too, we've had a more beavis-tolerant winter. Snow was on the ground most of January.

First of all. Observations were very reliable. If anything they were more detailed than we get today. Everything was manual, now snow is the only thing manual (outside of necessary fixes to the wx observing equipment). The mid century time frame was one of the worst for snowstorms here. We did have a few good ice storms. And second of all. You love to use the coldest normals in Chicago's entire climate record as your norm, but yet it's not fair for us to acknowledge how good the last few decades have been for snowstorms?

The last 6"+ storm at Detroit was March 3, 2023. (the largest storm last winter was 4.7", and the largest this year to date has been 3.7"). The historical average is just over 1 storm per winter of 6"+. However, there have been obviously many years where we dont see one, particularly in the middle third of the 20th century. The most 6"+ storms in a single winter was 6 in 2013-14. The most consecutive winters withOUT a 6"+ storm was 6, from 1944-45 thru 1949-50. The most consecutive winters with at least one 6"+ storm was 14, from 1890-91 thru 1903-04 The decade with the least 6"+ storms on record was the 1940s, when just one storm of 6"+ fell The decade with the most 6"+ storms on record was the 2010s, when 19 storms saw 6"+ Despite not having a 6"+ storm since March 3, 2023, we have already seen 6 in the 2020s.

Wow aiming high haha. Both months were cold. Feb 1985 had 16.9" of snow with a peak depth of 12" and Feb 2021 had 21.4" with a peak depth of 14". Actually 2020-21 had some fun times. An underrated winter imo

How much snow do you have on the ground? We had freezing rain. Our ground is frozen solid, but only piles of snow remain. The snowpack melted off the last day of January, and though we had some snow sunday it melted Monday.

The ensembles are as active as they have been at any point all winter heading into the next few weeks. Something good better come out of it!

ive noticed this over the years too...people think that other areas have consistent modeling. They dont. They have had countless fantasy storms in the northeast. The upcoming pattern is very active on the ensembles for the northeast although our sub (especially eastern sub) should get some fun too.

Snowcover would have helped no doubt, but its always subjective to guess/assume HOW much snowcover would have helped. We had snowcover most of the month in Detroit. It was a solid cold month, but not top 20. Plus, especially at Chicago (but DTW too), the mild departures the last 4 days really ate into the departure. Say what you want about the overall flavor of the month, but it was absolutely for the most part a much colder month than was anticipated. Chicago January 2025 temp departure vs various normals. POR normal (1873-2025): -1.6 1991-2020: -1.6 1981-2010: -1.1 1971-2000: +0.4 1961-1990: +0.9 1951-1980: +0.1 1941-1970: -1.7 1931-1960: -3.7 1921-1950: -3.6 1911-1940: -3.1 1901-1930: -2.3 1891-1920: -1.8 Detroit Jan 2025 temp departure POR 1874-2025: -2.1 1991-2020: -2.6 1981-2010: -2.1 1971-2000: -1.0 1961-1990: -0.2 1951-1980: -0.9 1941-1970: -2.2 1931-1960: -3.8 1921-1950: -3.2 1911-1940: -2.4 1901-1930: -1.5 1891-1920: -1.4 1881-1910: -1.5

Freezing rain (about 0.07") with temps in the 20s. Slick as snot on a brass doorknob.

I still have no idea what precip type we get tonight. Models seemed to have backed away from freezing rain and are leaning more snow/sleet but at this point it's anybodys guess.

Oh for sure. That's one of the main issues I'd imagine.

Those type of maps always need to be taken with a grain of salt. Especially season snowfall maps.

Michigan definitely in the game for Sat too. But no idea if I'll see snow or snow/sleet/freezing rain.

I hate even trying to pick one. But I still think I'd pick cold. Hopefully you'll get hit soon!

TCCs M.O. is posting xmacis graphs, and we all know it involves tons of cherry picking (ie: picking the snowiest period of record for Charleston WV and comparing it to Detroit) but he doesnt seem to understand how weather actually works. Just a few days ago he was complaining how lake effect snow is "fake" by posting snowfall and snow depth of lake and non lake effect areas. Apparently now that goes out the window when discussing Cleveland lol. Cleveland is in a lake effect snowbelt, though the eastern burbs of Cleveland get more than the airport. An easy way to actually understand climate is when comparing Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit. Cleveland typically gets plenty of LES but is the warmest of the 3 cities...Chicago hardly gets any LES except for the occasional band, but is the coldest of the 3 cities. Detroit gets lots of lake effect flakes but this typically only several inches of snow are direct LES. Cleveland's average winter temp is over 2F warmer than Detroit, and over 3F warmer than Chicago. Historically, while averaging notably more snowfall than Detroit (and Chicago), Cleveland and Detroit average around the same amount of days annually with snow on the ground, and this is only a handful of days more annually than Chicago (despite Chicago averaging well less snow than Cleveland). Lake effect snow is fun, it certainly isnt "fake" but it definitely is a different kind of snow, which is why IMO its always important to have accurate numbers for liquid precip, snowfall, and snow depth.

I work right by a window looking out into my backyard. The yard is now frozen brown/yellow/pale green grass with a few snow piles and I am always reminded how much I HATE looking at bare ground after a prolonged period of snowcover, even not deep. I mean, it sucks anytime, but its less of an "ugh" factor when you have only had snowcover for a few days.

Yes, the winter of 2022-23, mild as it was, was stellar for photography. You had: Dec 23-24 blizzard conditions Jan 22 wet snowstorm Jan 25 wet snowstorm Feb 22 ice storm Mar 3 wet snowstorm Mar 10 wet snowstorm