michsnowfreak

Yes, to confirm I meant lake effect events. We had a great snow pack last February too. And I agree, 2014 was too good to be true. Can't believe it was 8 years ago now.

Jealous of the lake effect event in Western Michigan, but it was definitely a long time coming for them. Seems like every year the UP has no problem getting a good lake effect event but it's been a few years for Western lower. Did pick up a light dusting of 0.1" this morning, otherwise a frozen crust of 1 to 2" on the ground as we are cold and dry. Season is at 12.7" in my backyard and 13.2" at DTW. Took some close up pictures of snowflakes this morning.

Glad to help lol. Our region has been blessed with a lot of great winters in the past few decades, but 2011-12 is always the poster child for an undesirable Winter. If this does not end as a decent snow season for Toledo, it still will be vastly different than 2012 with all of the cold coming.

By no means has it been a great winter here, but the difference between Detroit and Toledo has been unusually extreme so far this season. As if the state line is the cutoff. That said, its way too early for you to write-off January let alone winter. I know you mentioned that it's different than 2011-12, but it's clearly Is much different. With the cold look dominating the foreseeable future, if any sort of clipper pattern pans out you will definitely get some of the goods.

My guess is it has to do with the rural prairie terrain.

Clipper pattern potential.

It always is!

Detroit made it down to 10ﾟ this morning, easily the coldest temperature of the Winter so far. The sun is shining brightly, after being missing an action for who knows how long, and the snow glistened beautifully. Never can get that glitter fully captured in a picture.

I was not sure where the cut off was. As said 2.7" here, and I heard 1.8" down in Monroe but only 0.4" at Toledo airport.

I'm not sure about the track, but it just seems like in general much of the snow shield under performed, with a few exceptions of course. How did you do in your part of Toledo?

Finished with 2.7" here and DTW. Expected more but still pretty out. 2nd largest event of the season (4.2" Nov 27/28). Reports show most of SE MI had 2-4", highest are of 4-4.5" in Northern Macomb, southern st Clair, Genesee Co. I have doubts about 5-6 in Troy but it was a drifty snow. It would also seem 2.5" on pns for troy is too low. I will say that every other event this season has been pretty straightforward without any blowing or drifting so very easy to measure, this is the 1st event where you're likely to see some totals that appear too low or too high. Very slippery with the icy pavement underneath it. Based on chicago area it seems like a lot of the snow shield underperformed outside isolated bands.

Since 2014...what in the world is going on with November and December snowfall at Detroit. 5 out of 8 years saw more in November. Year - Nov - Dec 2014 - 4.0" - 0.1" 2015 - 6.2" - 1.3" 2016 - 0.1" - 16.8" 2017 - T - 22.5" 2018 - 6.7" - 0.5" 2019 - 9.5" - 2.7" 2020 - 3.5" - 9.6" 2021 - 7.1" - 3.3" For reference...avg is 1.5" Nov and 8.9" Dec.

Interesting. So with your extremely warm December our flowers blooming? Seems like every year when we get a 45 or 50ﾟ day people are like "I saw a crocus" or something like that.

Doesn't bother me. We should be in for a nice powdery snowfall, after a season of all wet snowfalls so far.

At Detroit...December finish with an average temperature of 37.2, which ties with 1931 for 8th warmest December on record. While it was a wet month with meager snow (3.3) neither of these was top 20 territory. 2021 finished tying with 1921 for the 5th warmest year on record (52.7°) and also the 12th wettest year on record (39.99"). Snowfall was near normal at 42.2". This is an inch above longterm avg and ranks 58th snowiest (out of 141). A little bit of irony in this is the fact that everyone was freaking out about drought when it ended up being a very wet year. Another piece of irony... I have to double check but I think we technically had more record low temps than record high temps despite the warm year. I finished 2021 with 41.93" of precip and 43.1" snow.

Do the trees even lose their leaves lol?

I have seen Grand Rapids avoid a warning or watch when it's imminent with some excuse like, think this model's overdone, or it's gonna be a long enough duration to reach warning criteria, etc. Then they will turn around and issue another advisory for random Lake squalls that will merely dust much of the area outside the belts.

Actually adding to the discussion, they are always generous with advisories so it really seems silly and probably confuses the public. 1 to 3" snowfall snowfall gets an advisory usually usually. 4 to 7" snowfall? Let's call that an advisory too. Model shows 6 to 10", let's say 4 to 8" with an advisory and then upgrade to a warning if needed. We have had like 4 advisories already this season and they have all had vastly different outcomes.

GRR and DTX are notorious for being gunshy on any kind of Winter storm watch. I saw graphic that it's been almost 2 years since they issued 1. That does not mean there has not been a warning criteria snow, they just always love to go with the advisory then upgrade to a warning as needed.

I don't know if it is so much the cold more more so the orientation of the precipitation shield. There will likely be a thin area of ice in the transition zone as well. GFS and GEM are locked up with each other. The nam, like many times, is a far outlier but of course still never like to see that.

Under pressure...April 15, 2014. Detroit cruised into 2nd place for snowiest all time winters in late February or early March. Truly an epic Winter in the Southern lakes. However they were just a touch short of the 1880-81 record. That night, 1 to 3" of snow was forecast and 1.9" needed to break the record. And it was very publicized in the media. What a nightmare for the observer. You get a 2" snowfall what's going to happen, if the record is broken you'll have people accusing you of purposely breaking it, if the record is just missed you'll have people accusing you of purposely just missing it. Luckily like most of our things that Winter the snowfall over performed at 3.2" so it was an easy record clincher.

If you want to talk about not getting hopes up, I don't think it's ever a good idea to bank on the 84 hour nam, whether it shows a favorable or unfavorable solution for you.

Today's quick hitting snowfall puts Detroit at 10.4" which is actually just ahead of average to date (9.7"). Heavy snow was reported at DTW for several hours on November 27th, 2 hours today, and briefly on December 6th. Snowfalls on November 27th, November 29th, and today we're extremely scenic. And yet, it feels like such an empty start to the season. This is how you know you are a Winter/snowcover lover and it's not all about the rates.

2.0" here, 9.9" season. 1.9" at DTW, 10.4" season. Was gorgeous but it's already becoming drippy. The in and out nature of the snow shows in DTW hourly obs: 3pm: Overcast 4pm: Heavy Snow 5pm: Heavy Snow 6pm: Light Snow 7pm: Fog/mist

Snowed to beat the ban for a few hours. In and out like a flash. Picked up 2" of wet snow and everything is caked in snow. This is the 3rd scenic wet snowfall of the season....now time for some powder!