pasnownut

at 150 SLP pops on Fla Panhandle trough axis similar but a step N of 12z could it be a coastal hugger.........

at 144 500's holding back a tad (similar to Euro). caution Flag1 hoisted

at 138 SLP about 100 miles N of 12z in N texas and 1033 HP went poof in NE 540 still down thru S Va

at 126 steady as she goes. SLP in NW tip of Lone Star state. Really similar.

But how can you miss this?? lol....have a good one.

I'll help while hes pourin cocktail #....... 114 is very similar to 12z

Keep going PA....Its your snow train. Make us happy.

subtle differences but nothing much changed....so far.

ICON extrapolated is a hit Go ahead.....hit ME

Loop back through the last 4 on hour runs of both GFS and Euro Ops, and you'll see the GFS being notably more consistent. Then seeing the GEPS and GEFS looking similar up top, makes me think it has a clue to what may happen. Euro at 168 on 500mb panels is a few hundred miles W of EPS at same time stamp. That would argue for a potentially more easterly SLP placement and potentially notably different solution. I reiterate, I share what Im seeing to add substance to where my head is....and how it gets there. NOT because I think I'm correct.

Did your guy suggest why he thinks its a no go? Would be great to here why peeps think not..especially if they are correct. PNA heading + with NAO/AO still neg suggests ridging out west and trough in the east(much like todays GFS shows). Mind you im not banking on the GFS to be correct, but the presentation seems logical and "fits" in my mind. Of course that doesnt mean a storm cant cut, but thats the 10 million dollar question that someone needs to help us understand.

Wow. Well it sorta looked like that for 1 run. Wish he didnt raise they hypometer so much. I miss the old Joe.

Atta boy. Probably making Voyager a tad jealous... Have one for me.

may need it cause if this were easy to figure out (cept for the few that think they already do)...this is the fun and part of the game.

toggling back n forth between the majors, out to 132 they are pretty similar. They divulge beyond that w/ the GFS having a deeper trough (hence the better solution) vs the Euro much less diggy/troughy. As i stated above, GFS suite looks similar, so thats a plus. Thats what I'm focusing on in the next couple days...upper air...not surface. I'd think by late weekend we should have a better idea of what we may need....sleds or boats.

Just looked. Thats one hella frontal passage. Not sure what to take from the constant cutter look that is a new default for many/most events. Not sure I'm buying what its selling, but the Euro has a similar look, so they shouldnt be discounted even tho we hope n pray they are wrong in many ways. GFS ens vs OP at 174 are not too far off at 500, so that should make one feel that they may be onto something. Maybe Blizz or someone else can post the Euro/Ens for same timestamp to see how wide the goalposts really are at this juncture.

Lols. Sounds like fun no matter the weather. Enjoy pal.

Yeah. That would make for lots of leftovers for those of us that cook for family and need to get rid of food that’s been purchased or prepared in advance.

Well this is a nice lunch break. Be careful. Optimism is only approved by other subs and certain few. I’ve seen no snippets so proceed with caution. Storm or no storm, the tellies do support this and have for several days btw. joking aside… nice run and like cash said, maybe too nice. I want my kid home and not stuck in airport damnit.

oof. that sucks. Sorry bout the damage. Hoping the roof didnt get damaged too much.

You can add the CMC to the list that has something decent and close. Consensus is all we can hope for right now. I'm on the road seeing clients rest of the day, so I hope you guys have some good nooners to look over. And, if they are bad....its part of the game. Fret not. Many more runs to parse over in the coming days.

and IF the models have a clue, like blizz suggested earlier, the pattern looks ripe for the pickings. Doesnt mean we score one, but the odds seem to be trending more favorable for us for the holidays and into the New Year. Best look IMO in some time. How long the window stays open....dunno, but it'll be open for a while.

6z is still a close miss, but at this lead time, we just want to storm to keep showing up, then we can start worrying about whos getting what (if anything). Looping through the panels, its a rather wonky/sloppy presentation, but no storm seems to come easy round here.

I think the moving on part was those of us that really werent in. Sorry if we stole any thunder from yalls fun. at least it wasnt a hard freeze after, or you'd be chippin away for days. Have fun.

Well stated Blizz.